2012 Silver Eagle Set. If mintage maxes out at around 300k what will the value be?

I tend to agree though can't speculate on the figures yet. I think the 'mint to demand' concept is helping maintain a more reasonable and reflective overall mintage outcome as well as giving customers (collectors) time to assess rather than race to buy as many sets as possible, only to find out later the only period the sets were valued significantly above retail was an initial period upon coins being delivered. It may take a few different products to be released as 'mint to demand' before a regular approach, rather than wait and see, comes into view for collectors to know when or whether to buy a given product. This is the first release as 'mint to demand' and we don't yet know how things will play out and what the final numbers will be, what the aftermarket and collector mind set will be like down the road. For now, the pause this is giving many collectors, is good for individual budgets, assessing needs/wants and rational purchase making, in so far as I can sense from forum discussions.

 

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It is a very good point about the returns. With the coins not shipping until the end of the month and sales period ending on 5 July, what do they do with all the returns? I guess they would head to the melter.

 

I think you missed my point...or I wasn't clear in what I meant. Lets say for arguments sake, the mint expected to sell 300K sets and thus produced 300K in advance. However, during the sales period...they had 350K orders. My point was, because they are "minting to demand" they could produce those additional 50K sets and fill those orders. These sets won't "sell out" during the ordering period. Once that period closes, they are done.

 

Well it makes more sense now... and I would say that, Yes, the Mint must 'mint to demand' and do so past the end of the order opportunity, because, well, they are 'minting to demand'. In your example they didn't 'pre-mint' enough coins. They got more orders than they prepared for and so have to fulfill those orders. Just because the order window closed doesn't mean the minting window closed. It doesn't say anywhere that they can't take the rest of the year to finish minting, which is why I cited the legal limitation to doing that within the year stamped on a coin.

 

Exactly. However, is there a law that says a coin must be minted during the year stamped on the coin? I only ask because I know they were minting 90% silver coins dated 1964 well beyond 1964.

 

If I remember right, that was due to a special dispensation.

 

Circulating coins can only be sold the year they are minted from what I understand. Usually, coin legislation places limitations on commemorative coins such as those in the commemorative silver $1 dollar program. The 75th anniversary may not be a commemorative as it is termed an 'anniversary' and while they are silver dollars, they do not circulate so they may not have such limitations as it may not have it's own coin legislation restricting it. Commemorative coin legislation usually restricts/limits coin mintage as well, while the 75th ASE set is a 'mint to demand' product. So it would seem this product is unique and unlike these other comparisons.

 

All I know is the 25th Ann. set of 5 Silver Eagles last year sucked, I never could get my order in, living on the west coast has its draw backs when there are limited amounts on coins, what the Mint is doing with the 2 pc. set is great & we'll all get what we want, I beleive only the dealers bentfit from smaller amounts of coins from the mint, its all about $$$$$$$$$$$$ to dealers :dead-horse:

 

I loved last year's set...and I too live on the west coast and was able to get one from the mint. It was a bit of a challenge, but it was doable. I do like how they are selling as many as they can with this set, but I also imagine that it will be much like the majority of other modern us mint issues...worth less than it originally sold for.

 

I think people are overestimating the amount of people the are waiting for the last few days. The Big dealers probably already ordered what they wanted regardless of the mintage and the average collector doesn't care about the sales figures and probably wont wait until the last week. A few hardcore people buying 5 or 10 is not going to flip the scales much. Even with people that are really active in coin collecting such as members on this site i have not seen one post about a person buying more then 10 sets.

 

It seems there are different interpretations to what exactly is "mint to demand". Some seem to think it means to mint only the number of sets that are ordered. This creates an issue when returns are considered, as mentioned above. I believe a better meaning of "mint to demand" is to ensure everyone who orders a set, within the expressed time period, gets a set. In other words, they will mint as least as many as there are orders, but can issue as many as they would like. The key, I believe, is they must at least satisfy the demand.

The sales figures indicated are meant to be just that; the amount of sets sold. The mintage figures could easily be a higher number. Another thought is this: is there anything to prevent the Mint from extending the order period? My feeling is although we might know in early July how many sets have been sold, we will not know have many actually will be minted. Am I being delusional?

 

Yes, aside from how they handle returns and barring some unforeseen event, the final mintage will be what was ordered during the ordering period. Any deviations from this will destroy what little credibility the mint has.

 

Sales figures and mintage of numismatic products have become one and the same, so mintage is the amount of coins released by the mint for these products. It doesn't matter if its an even number like 100,000 of some coin that sold out fast, a fraction of 500,000 coins where this number was the maximum mintage allowed by the coin legislation, or some figure arrived at from the amount of orders placed in a set period of time, such as this product we are discussing.

Even if the Mint has over produced (minted) the amount of coins it needs to fulfill all orders before a given product goes off-sale, the mintage will be determined by what is released (per orders placed) and all extra coins kept in inventory at the Mint will eventually be destroyed, as I mentioned earlier in the 2009 UHR example. We often don't know final mintage of numismatic products for many months after a coin is no longer available for sale. In the case of circulation strikes that may extend to not knowing for a couple of years. Such figures are adjusted in either products minted during the months and years after minting stops and all excess inventory is destroyed.

What prevents the Mint from extending the order deadline of this product is their reputation amongst customers/collectors. They have stated 'mint to demand' means ordering is only available for the defined period of time. To reverse that after orders have been being placed would risk angering many of those existing orders placed.

Of course the Mint needs to have an excess on hand if they are going to issue exchanges of this product, but the Mint have not stated a return policy for this product that is any different than their existing one.

I'm not able to call the Mint to inquire about the return policy of this product, but if someone feels up to it and wouldn't mind reporting back, I'd appreciate hearing what you learn about this.

I have also mentioned this in a previous post somewhere, but if orders placed now are cancelled prior to being shipped to the customer, will the odometer reflect negative positions in its daily calculation?

 

So far, I've been one of the fence sitters. I was initially disappointed at the issue price, hoping for something around $130. Some have posted that they believe that post-production prices would fall below issue price, while others believe the opposite. Those of you that have been buying from the Mint for a while now, what do you think? What has been your experience and what are the factors that influenced post-production prices?

 

Supply and demand.

 

sorry guys- no money to make on these- these are just for collectors to enjoy.

 

My thoughts exactly. Perhaps it's a blessing that I can't afford to pick up a set from the mint at the moment. They very well may be cheaper on the secondary market.

 

Well, they have diddled in the past......Gettysburg Commemorative as an example. Authorized and dated 1936, minted in 1937 (to celebrate a commemoration that took place in 1938).

 

I have said my piece, and I have been a mint customer for 30 years.
I have also seen many mint products fall below issue price, many more than sell above issue price.
Right now the market is a bit skewed because silver value has those coins pushed up in value, while before the silver run up they sold for a fraction of issue price.

I will say that mintages could be below what I initially expected, but that is only assuming that the sales info we are getting from the mint is accurate.

 

You keep stating this and ignoring my inquiry (see post #17)... Again, which products are you referring to?

If you are unable to supply an answer to this then your comments are essentially baseless on the subject. Redundantly posting without answering to support your claim is just evasive and pointless. It will only prove that you don't know what you are talking about, no matter the length of time you've been a US Mint customer.

So, please, appraise us of the mint products you claim fall below issue price, and how you arrive at the conclusion that they outnumber those that sell above issue price.

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