Rarity or Condition Yields Greater Return

IMO, condition beats rarity since rarity can change at any moment in time yet condition is constant.

 

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If the idea is to hold it for 10 to 20 years the VF has a better chance of
of enduring. The MS63 might not make 20 months. All things are not
equal. Some of the classics in VF can take 10 years to move at all. Then
they go vertical for awhile and then flat. When did MS63 become an
investment grade?

 

They didn't make Barber halves in 1880......

 

The problem with researching prices is grading itself.
Grading standards, interpretations, etc have always
been changing. What collectors like also keeps
changing. The original Photograde only covered
circulated grades and yet Ruddy managed to sell
8 million copies. At one time collectors didn't care
about mintmarks. On some coins a diecrack is just
a diecrack. On another coin it's "actually" a big deal
worth hundreds if not thousands.

There are hundreds of varibles that play out in the
price of coins. Anyone of which can change again
or disappear. Buying the best you can afford made
alot of sense when grades were few, the visual
difference between grades was large and the price
difference just a little. Paying $5 in 1950 for an Unc
instead of $4 in XF was a great deal for 25% more.
Is it a great deal today when you can barely see a
difference at all between grades. I don't expect
the buy the best attitude to change. But it and any
other varible can change slowly or instantly.

Your better off just collecting what you like.

 

If your looking for a good book to get started with
consider this one:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0794821782/ref=mp_s_a_2?qid=1333888198&sr=8-2

 

The Coin Dealer Newsletter has historic graph books going back to 1980 or so. But the MS65 coins have changed over the years and population figures have gone up quite a bit.

 

thanks i bought it at ebay for $8.98 delivered. I appreciate all the input. I assumed its a whole lot more complicated than Im trying to make it and Ive read many times you should be guided more by your personal likes than any sort of cold, calculating formula. Ive gotten interested in numismatics because of buying PMs. The more I get into it the more I like it for itself rather than for any hope of making money. However, I definitely would like to get a return or to at least preserve my investment if inflation hits us like I think it will.

I made an offer on a 1881 CC Morgan MS64 PCGS and IMO its a VERY nice looking coin. If I get the price i want itll be about the lowest in recent ebay history. I wouldve liked to have gotten one a grade or two higher but Ive blown thru most of my money recently on silvers big dip.

Thank you!!!