Advice please: I just resumed collecting after a couple of decades off. I'm filling gaps and upgrading, and I deliberately am avoiding silver/gold, because of the prices, and focusing on my pennies, nickles, and bring the collection up to date with the most recent years. I figured, since silver is so expensive, I'll go the other direction, and revisit silver when the econoomy picks up/commodities go down. But I may be off base, not thinking about it correctly. I'm interested in any thoughts/advice you have.
The only problem is you also have to consider prices may be rather expensive because of the melting that is happening day after day with these prices. Unless you are looking for circulated/junk silver to fill holes. Higher grade circulated (XF and AU) and even some UNC may have considerable premiums on them because there simply aren't that many around anymore 5 years from now when things cool down. Also you are trying to time the market. What happens if what they say is true and 1100 is gold's new floor and 20-25 is silver's? Just try to get a good price on items don't pass up a good silver deal today in hopes of a brighter tomorrow. Remember Greece defaulted, Spain is next on the list. We've already been down graded from AAA to AA credit rating and may get another one. If we default too on our debt we may be forced go back on the gold standard and gold and silver over so much could be confiscated again. All because we can't keep our inflation, spending and money supply in check.
This is a tough call because no one can predict the PM market. I would pick the series that interests you the most, silver or non-silver, and shop around for deals. TC
I see two problems, what if PM prices never drop to the price you think is cheap? It could go even higher or just maintain a steady price. Also when you do decided to get into the silver or gold coins will you still think the same way? If you do you will never collect coins with PM contents. Just buy what you like and enjoy them. It's much more profitable to predict stocks or lotto numbers then the value of PM and coins.
If you are upgrading your collection, silver may not play a role in the cost of the coins you may need. In many series, the commons have gone up due to PM prices, but semi-keys and better grades have actually come down somewhat. Check price guides from two years ago compared to a recent one. There are some deals in silver coins out there, believe it or not.
I agree that silver/gold prices are high right now, but there's no way to predict what they will do tomorrow. One thing that the market is doing is compressing the price differential between a high and a low grade coin. For example, the 1892 Columbian Expo 50c is widely available in circulated condition for roughly its silver melt value. I upgraded a VF version of the coin to a BU and used the price difference between what I paid for the VF and what I sold it for to fund the upgrade.
I was just observing this, but hadn't fully articulated this thought - great point. This is consistent with my observations too. Thanks!
Thanks everyone for the great feedback. Good advice on sticking to the basics - collecting for fun. Perhaps I was overthinking this. I have so many holes to fill, so many coins to upgrade, that it will be a while until I tackle everything on my list, PM or not. After all, there's only so many dollars every paycheck . . . That observation a couple of you made about the key dates being relatively cheaper makes sense in a recession too, and perhaps PM or not, I may want to start there with Key Dates given the relative value right now. I wonder if anyone has done any homework on that concept: The relative value and inverse relationship between PMs and Numismatic Premiums? Hmmmm?
