And down it goes.... (silver)

Any thoughts on the plunge?
I am a buyer between $4-$5.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

 

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Haven't really been paying much attention, but I'm happy-now I can start buying coins for a cheaper price. I'm with you on this one lets have it hit $5. Crossing the fingers.

 

Did anyone expect it to stay as high as it had been? Personally, I think the "natural" price for silver for the next several years will hover in the $6-8 range.

Gold is down too.

 

I think it'll hover around 9 for a while then drop off a bit more, at 6 I'm a buyer

 

As you may know, not everyone shares your view about silver returning to $5 or $6. I've linked an article by silver bull Ted Butler who shares his view on why the POS is currently heading down, & why he believes it will again soon head up.

http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-05-06.html

 

9 1/2 to 10 for me
I may hold out for 9 but I dont see it below 8 1/2

than again I'm in the army, what do I know lol

 

Are you certain you can trust the advice of a guy who has been on a decade long Quixote-like quest to "terminate this manipulation [of the price of silver]" (his own words)? Even though the regulatory agencies disregard him and his assertions as baseless?

It sounds like this guy is just hawking silver in his own effort to affect the price of silver in a way advantageous to him.

oh well, TEHO

 

I got a feeling we will see it spike again then have it linger around 10-11 for a while.. The days of 6.00 silver is gone my friends just like the 5% 30 year interest rates! and 2.00 a gallon gas

 

The mining stocks are turning up, while both the POG & POS are still down. This divergence is frequently a sign of the market turning. The stocks had turned down while the PM prices were still heading up after the middle of May.

In any event, silver will never be $4 to $5 again. More is being used than is being mined.

 

Yea what He said!

 

Silver has only dropped back to the level it was in April of this year, so it is difficult to see where anything has fundamentally changed or get excited about it. Guessing short term price movements is just that, guessing. Long term, we are either going to have higher silver prices, or learn to live without silver because production and demand are still out of balance. Silver was $7.52 one year ago today. I don't expect to see that price again.

 

And most Dealers are still asking (gouging) at around $20 for ASEs. I think I'll wait for the ASEs to come down to US$4 over spot, thank you.

 

This is hardly a surprise. Each year, silver price goes down and stays relatively stable during summer, and increases during the rest of the year with few nasty surprises.

 

Silver is simply correcting to its actual market value. What we saw with the spike was not warranted, IMHO. It is now stabilizing and will sit near $12 throughout the rest of the year. I would really be surprised to see it go under $11.25 for more than any two day period from here on out. One thing to remember is that eventhough there may have been a small increase in interest over the past few years in coin collecting, there has been a far greater increase of interest in items that are considered to be purely numismatic and not meant for trade or circulation, such as the Mint/Proof sets, government issued bullion, commemoratives, etc.

I personally do not come across so many people that are delving into collecting older circulated/uncirculated legal tender issue as I find those that are "getting all into" the "new craze" of purchasing "mint products" such as the Jefferson commemorative series and State Quarters series, Silver eagles, Eagles, etc. And the U.S. is not the only country that has created this "mint product" numismatic craze. You have Canada, Europe, Great Britain, Japan, and even China.

With this comes the higher demand for silver. And until there is more productive mining of the metal, there is going to be a very slow and steady rise in the bid for silver. Also, when China and Europe begin to produce more bullion to meet demands, and commemoratives to feed and further the interest in numismatics, the demand will go up to produce quantities to meet consumer demand, and then we'll see more fluctuation upward.

This higher demand will be good for those of us that actually collect tender issues because as demand goes up and price goes up, there will be more and more of us willing to sell some "junk silver" for a nice profit. This will remove many lower end specimens from availability, creating a wider gap in supply and demand for silver-based series, thus raising the price of such series as the Morgan/Peace Dollars, 1960's Kennedys, Franklin Halves, Mercury/Barber dimes, etc.

 

likely

 

That statement is meaningless since the price is always equal to the actual market value. Maybe you meant to say intrinsic value, although this must remain an opinion since it isn't backed with any calculation of intrinsic value.

 

NP, I see your post as proof that we all view events through the filter of our own experience. Your perception is that the POS & POG are as a result of interest in "Mint/Proof sets, government issued bullion, commemoratives, etc.", while I would consider to be incidental to what I think motivates the far greater world interest in PMs.

I suspect that the increased interest has more to do with concerns regarding currencies, especially the US$, and general nervousness about world events. As you know, the US$ has become the biggest reserve asset held by CBs around the world, replacing gold & silver of a few decades earlier. Our national debt, combined with our other deficits of current account, budget, & trade, have put pressure on the dollars value. Rather than address these problems, our govt cuts taxes, increases spending, & focuses on issues that don't solve these economic problems.

I'll be very surprised if both silver & gold don't soon resume the price climb they've been enjoying, along with all other commodities. Other CBs are cpnsidering reducing their exposure to the dollar, & govts are establishing markets trading in non-dollar assets. Both of these activities will involve selling dollars & some denominated assets which will add to the downward pressure on the dollar.

Of course the good news for coins is that their values should prosper. It's the very reason I've started comming to this site, to learn about nusmismatics. BTW, I feel very good about the time I've spent here, reading different threads. I already feel that It is time well spent. I just hope my opinions don't tick any of you off, so that you don't want to share info with me.

 

There tends to be a flight to commodities, and I'm thinking of gold in particular, when the currency of a given country or countries comes under pressure.

There is a pretty complex dance going on here (not as if that's never been true) around oil sources, return of money to the US via imports and Treasuries, housing, inflation, etc. Confused yet? I sure am. But gold and silver are and have been known items of value for centuries, unlike, ahem, paper currency. (Numismatic value notwithstanding.)

I don't know how much of the recent runup is just speculation and how much is a structural change and I suppose I will never sort that out. I note that a recent article in the New York Times stated that there are mutual fund-like investors in commodities now-- I can only imagine how that might be changing the playing field.

Then again, once upon a time there were these Hunt Brothers, see, and...

 

The only thing that ticks me off is that I don't know what the heck people mean when they talk about POGS and POS's I had a POS Geo Prism once but I don't think its the same meaning.
Could some one explain?

 

Sorry bandito, POS is price of silver, POG is price of Gold, CB is Central Bank, & PM is precious metals.