Okay so if the rebook is not a good price guide for coins.

I agree about Coin World's prices - they are definitely high retail for the most part, especially for modern issues.
Speaking of magazine pricing, the Canadian Coin News publishes a fairly accurate Trends section. Their prices are generally average retail and tend to over-value modern issues but on older coins they seem pretty accurate.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I haven't been a big Detecto fan recently, but he asks a legitimate question for which there seems to be no definitive answer.

I didn't say Numismedia is the be all-end all price guide, but threw it out as another tool. The correct answer to his question is... there is no single price guide to use. Use of the multiple tools suggested here aids in the research for a price to offer or pay for a particular coin. The key is knowing what you want, then doing the math before you throw out an offer, rather than randomly buying coins (unlike coins for bullion value, which wll always be worth the price of the precious metal they contain, dictated by the spot price). Supply and demand dictate coin prices to a large extent. This is why researching eBay's completed auction listings can be another tool. If one person bid $150 for a particular coin, but 10 others bought a similar one for $20, it's a good guess that the coin is worth about $20. If you want particular coin bad enough, only you can decide how much you're willing to pay.

Again, my suggestion is to know what you want, use multiple sources, come up with an average, then make your offer.

 

Completed eBay, Heritage, and Teletrade sales are a good source.

You have to remember, by the time Red Book, and other published books on coins containing a price guide, are published and released, the prices in the guides of those books are already outdated and not accurate, and some can be as much as 20% off.

 

This is good advice.

When I look up coins on those sites, here's what I find...

There is NO standardized pricing for coins. Period. The end.

Prices vary greatly depending on quality, even for coins with the same grade.

For instance, go take a look at the latest Heritage auction. Look at the three following lots : 6330 and 6331. Here are the links :

http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1166&lotNo=6330
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=1166&lotNo=6331

Same date, same grade, same die marriage. The first went off for $6325, the second for $5750. That's more than 10%, even though the lower price coin was PCGS + CAC, which tends to help a coin a little bit.

Why did the NGC coin outperform the PCGS + CAC coin ? Because it was a better coin. It was very well struck, which is unusual for this series. The Smart Money saw the superior coin and paid top dollar.

Both coins went high relative to ALL "price guides" and other nice coins in the auction.

I was an underbidder on 6330; I really liked it. A lot. I just wasn't willing to chase it that far.

 

I have been a big fan of Detecto! I may disagree with his opinions on a couple of things, but I am sure I disagree with a lot of people's opinions on this board. Fair disagreements are great, its how we learn. I have been a big fan of yours too Omaha.

Overall, the Redbook or any price guide CAN be a starting point for anyone. Its a START, it will let you know if that coin is around a $2 coin or possibly be worth $2000. The only problem is too many take this "relative" price and use it as gospel. Its not, its just a "scope of value", and if its worth more than a few bucks its telling you to research what the market is paying for this coin right now. That's how I have always used these price guides. They are useful to a point, then further research is necessary.

Chris

 

Here's another VITAL item to consider :

Price guides are most reliable for coins that act like commodities, and far less reliable for coins which behave as "stand alone" individuals.

"Commodity" coins include almost all Morgan dollars less than $500. There are literally millions of these coins. They're everywhere, and they change hands every day, which means there are many "price points" to roll into an average.

When coming up with an estimate, it's best to have MUCH history from which to draw. If I'm trying to estimate the fair market value, it's easier to get a reasonable number if there are thousands of transactions.

For instance, consider a common Morgan - an 1881-S. They tend to come really nice, so there are mountains of MS64s and 65s from which to choose - and from which to estimate a price. Price estimates are reliable, and these act like commmodities.

In contrast, how many MS65 1893-S have you seen ? How many recent past sales ? Very, very few. So when a biggie like that comes around, it's very difficult to predict what the price will be, and it's much harder for a prospective buyer to estimate what he should offer.

And these "singular" coins have MUCH greater price variability due to quality. Commodity coins like the 1881-S example won't bring much premium even if "strong for the grade" (exception being exceptional rainbow toning). Pricing for commodity coins is dominated by the grade on the holder. Prices for "singular" coins vary greatly based on true quality and eye appeal.

I'm not saying that's good or bad; I'm just saying that's what I'm seeing.

 

Yes, I know you were throwing a number out there as was I. Bidiots or not (and there are a lot fewer than you think), there is no other place to price most MS66 Lincolns and you will be very lucky to sell the cheaper raw coins as high as CDN prices.

 

Another VITAL consideration...

When using auction web sites, be sure you're comparing apples to apples. Here's a major stumbling block...

Rare die varieties bring much more money, but sometimes an auction website won't make that clear. For instance, they might have all 1794 large cents grouped together even though the S-48 die variety is worth 100 times more. So when you see a table and there are big numbers flying around, be careful.

Ensure the coin prices you're looking at are for the same (or comparable) die marriage as the coin you're considering.

This is a big problem with Capped Bust Halves, for example. Be careful !

 

I am talking about common dates. The last NGC 1955-S MS66 they sold was nearly 2 years ago for $19. You can pick them up for about $10 on eBay. Heavens, the minimum buyers premium at Heritage is $14. The last 1944-S they sold was also 2 years ago for $24. Easily less than $15 on eBay. The last 1941 also 2 years ago for $24. Now, where are the bidiots? Recently I have purchased several MS-67 NGC 1955-S's from eBay all for about $35 each. Today they are going for $60 - $70 (with a single one at $42) at Heritage, but I cannot sell them for $50 on eBay. BTW, the last time Heritage sold one for $35 was 2004. Again, where are the bidiots?

Yes, there are several MS-66 I would find from Heritage - i.e. 1946 - 1954 P's, early 30's and anything before that. That being said, I can normally get even anything 1934+ (in NGC and often PCGS) for less from eBay than Heritage.

I am not trying to say not to use Heritage, but there are several areas where it does not work just as there are several areas where I would not look anywhere else.

 

Isn't that a sneaker?

[rebook]

No wonder it isn't good for prices!

 

Been around to long and the prices stink..

 

Guys, remember the day when you would look at a coin, say yep, that fits in my collection and buy it.. Or dang she's purty.. I need to take her home with me.

Any one remember buying Bust Halves for $4.00? Or 55 DDO Lincolns in BU for $50? YA.. BU was a grade! Gotten to complicated to enjoy the hobby.

Now, its all about how much is it, so that I can sell it tomorrow and be rich..

Want to know what something is worth.. BUY IT.. thats what its worth. (at least to you at that given time). when you go to sell it.. Find you a bidiot to sell it to.

 

OP, this is the crucial, specific knowledge that is critical. RLM knows his market, where to look, and which data points are more valuable than others. This is exactly the type of personal knowledge that I was referring to as being valuable. IDK, if I were RLM I am not sure I would be sahring all of this.

Chris

 

So how many 100's of "exceptions" do I have to list (for Lincolns alone) before you could agree that Heritage does not work for low priced coins? I have not even started on common date MS-65's. There are many PCGS's and proofs also. Then there are several hundred memorials. Sorry, but I find more exceptions to your "rule" than I find that follow your "rule".