This is my thought process (guide) for an expanded collecting area. Comments (good or bad) are more than welcome, in fact encouraged. Those will help me make better choices. I've decided that I'm going to get into large cent varieties dated from 1839 through 1857. I have four resources as references: -- The Cent Book/1816-1839, John D. Wright, 1992 -- United States Large Cents/1816-1845, Vol 5, William Noyes, 2012 -- United States Large Cents/1846-1857, Vol 6, William Noyes, 2012 -- The Die Varieties of United states Large Cents/1840-1857, John R. Grellman, 2021 In the introductory information for each reference book the rarity values are defined. The good news is that the rarity definitions are consistent from one reference to the next. A Rarity-4 (R-4) appears to be 76-200 known in each reference book. It's no surprise to me that there are differences in the specific rarity for each particular date/variety from one reference book to the next (different authors; different time periods). But fortunately the differences are not large. BOTTOM LINE - COIN VALUE When it comes to what I'll bid/pay for a date/variety, I'll take into account the following: -- the date -- the grade (for PCGS/NGC slabbed coins) or -- the grade (my evaluation; but I rarely buy unslabbed coins) -- the variety (posted on the slab or my evaluation) -- the rarity value (only R-1, R-2, R-3 and maybe R-4; things get VERY pricey after that) -- the Greysheet value adjusted for rarity plus 10-20%
Most of the "raw" large cents I have seen at shows look like they either were dug out of the ground, or they were very obviously cleaned. Find what you want from a reputable dealer who describes his wares accurately. You said that you prefer to buy slabbed coins. IMHO, for large cents, that would be the way to go.
That looks like a pretty good outline. You certainly have the pertinent references. Comments and probably nothing you haven't already considered: 1) Regarding the Greysheet pricing target, Greysheet is only for slabbed coins and doesn't really apply to raw coins. I won't get into a debate over whether or not Greysheet pricing actually means anything, everyone has their own opinion on that. 2) Greysheet is dealer-to-dealer pricing and you've accounted for that with your 10 to 20% allowance. But I have found that Greysheet pricing is not very good these days for any coin that is better than average for the grade. So, if you are targeting better coins for the grade, you may need/want to allow for that in your thinking. 3) I think you may be missing something significant by not including either a target grade or, alternatively a target cost for the collection. If your intention is to acquire coins that appeal to you regardless of their grade, then that's fine. But I've found that it helps to have a target range of grades. When I decided to collect Capped Bust half dimes by die marriage, I decided that anything R-4 or more common would be collected in grades of AU-55 to MS-63. Rarer coins would be acquired in grades commensurate with an acquisition cost of about $1500. For R-6 and R-7 coins that means that some of these coins would have to be low-grade and in Details holders and even then I might have to increase my budgetary target.
Varieties are abundant within the series you have selected. Difficult but fun and exciting, good luck. Keep us up on your search and thanks for sharing.
My intent is to go ONLY after slabbed coins. I'm finding that 10-20% over Greysheet is NOT sufficient to win most bids. So I'll have to rethink that range. I do have target grades in mind. Cost is the driving force. -- XF/AU for most R-1 through R-3 coins. Maybe an occasional MS. -- For R-4 coins probably just XF. -- Above that, VF if the coin is straight graded. Higher for Details coins BUT I really prefer to avoid them. -- Nothing less than VF unless it's nice-looking for the grade and/or a rarer item. -- A while back I did the same sort of thing with Capped Bust Quarters/Reduced Diameter (1831-1838). I went after a compete Browning number set. I have three Guides for them. I fell short of complete by two coins, the rarest two. An R-5+ and an R-8. Only one is in a Details slab (the third rarest, an R-5) and I cherrypicked it raw off eBay. Experience indicates that price isn't my prime restricting factor. Finding the rarer varieties is.
If you haven't already, you might consider joining EAC (Early American Coppers) and soliciting some feedback from one of their members regarding your project. You might also consider attending their annual convention.
I would like to finish a date set of the 1839 to 1857 cents in the near future. The varieties are too minor for me, and I've learned from my half cent variety collecting days that the rarities can get frustrating. The collectors who have the rare ones aren't selling except via major auctions. That involves years of waiting and usually very high prices. I'd like to do a date set of all the large cents from 1793 to 1857. The stoppers are the 1804 and most especially the 1799. I will either have to be happy with all but the 1799, or buy something below my usual standards for the 1799. I have a 1799 Bust Dollar and a 1799 $10 gold piece, so I could be happy with those as fillers.
I am an EAC member and I went to this year's St Louis EAC convention. I got two coins from their auction. I also got to meet Ed Fuhrman. I already had his first three half cent handbooks and was just waiting on the fourth (I've got it now).
I've got a large portion of a Large Cent Type Set. I even included a 1787 Fugio when PCGS sort of "declared" it as a US coin. And (I think) the 1839-1857 date set is complete. I'm in the process of revisiting it (and whatever I have of the older issues) and fleshing out my inventory. I've been a bit slipshod with that part. If I'm got to collect varieties now, I've got to get my act together. I just turned 81 so I'm not sure how far along I'll get with the collection.
