After my past weekend visit to the Long Beach Coin and Currency show i begin to compare prices On the floor and the guides that i use both monthly publications (the currency green sheet) and The (bank note reporter) i would guess that maybe coin publications would be similar but i,am Not really a coin guy so i couldnt verify that to be true! Maybe somebody that uses the grey sheet can chime in on the subject?? Now first off all i realize that these are just guides to go by and not written in stone but i would Think that they would be in the ball park, if not what good are they? Since i mostly do Mpc and the green sheet is the only monthly publication that covers them i will Start there, though i,ve been doing this along time and already know what any Mpc is worth in Any given grade i had spied a couple of nice notes and wanted to see what the green sheet Had to say about them the dealer was about 300% over what the green sheet said but as i looked Around this was the norm! So the big question here is how is any note that constantly get,s bought and sold stay with in any Price guide range? it seem,s a very un realistic proposition as the cost would generally go up Each time. Your thought,s?
My thoughts - price guides are written and not updated by people based on their own rosy or stinky perceptions. For instance the Krause PM catalogues are seriously out of whack on prices for some choice foreign material. While some notes might be fairly consistent price wise, you know, the $10 Legal Tender Bison from 1901, other specialised areas like MPCs can be way out of date. The last MPC I purchased at auction this summer I ended up paying twice catalogue value for it. I know what they actually sell for, which is still under what I paid for the note. In my other collecting venue, Scottish banknotes - I can opin with certainty why they are priced in the Krause catalogue how they are - certain contributors want to buy cheap and sell high.
It is pretty much impossible for most price guides to keep up with certain coin series. For Lincoln cents for instance, They are spot on for 09 s vdb, 14 d , and 22 plain and why not, they are heavily traded at almost every shop, coin show and on the internet. Trades in those coins happen around the clock and easy to track and predict. It is some of the other branch mint dates that can be real tough and I believe the guides are inaccurate because those coins in the group just aren't out there trading as often, so we see a coin like a 1915 s Lincoln cent actually sell for 3-4 times any sheet because there just isn't the data out there to put in a guide correctly. Maybe that works for paper notes as well? Matt
The key to remember about pricing sheets or price guides is that they are history. They do not set prices, they report what has happened in the past. If you are collecting a series that is hot it will alwys be low versus what you have to pay and vice versa. I have paid well above price sheet for certain coins, and would not touch other material at half cat other times. Knowledge of the current market is what is missing to those who think they can solely rely on pricing books or sheets. Always be careful using them, since the dealers sure like to use them to their advantage, but ignore them when its not. Try to not play that sucker game. Get your own knowledge to know how to interpret these sheets. Chris
I encountered this at the last (my first) coin show. I was looking specifically for high grade Franklins. The prices were so much more than what I was seeing in the books, that I thought there was gouging going on. There isn't much competition where I live, and it lead me to think that dealers were taking advantage of this. $65 for a Bu 1951 P Franklin? With my not-so-experienced eye, it looked about MS64, if that, which in the guides I have centers around $35. I bought it anyway, because I didn't see any others for that year. So maybe the 'demand clause' took effect in my inner constitution.
Printed price guides are just a starting point, and most well informed collectors have several to many. For up to date prices realized you need to check dealer inventories, and auction archives. I've seen some notes come up for auction with 2 to 3 bidders wanting it, and the auction price gets driven way past recent prices paid. For the notes I'm collecting, the rare ones always bring strong prices and the common notes average much less than published prices.
That is the other wrinkle to price guides. I will write this but believe me I am not trying to impune anyone, it just is: Most price guides ALWAYS list a higher price for common items, and usually list a low price for the truly rare material. This benefits the dealers since they know they can always sell the rare material for higher than book to collectors, and also benefits them by putting a price floor on the common stock, stuff they always have a lot of. I am not saying this is intentional, but is true of every price guide I have ever used. Everyone should keep this in mind when using these. You are not getting a deal by buying 10x of a common item at half cat, and you are not getting hosed by paying 30% higher for rare material. That is the REAL market, something which price guides have never shown in my opinion. Chris
Rusty: When you return to the Long Beach show next year you will likely see the same notes in the same dealers inventory at the same prices. My experience with MPC is that most dealers do not know the market (which is very thin to begin with due to the limited number of collectors) and will price their material high. This is especially true of those that use the Schwan catalog as a price guide. The most recent catalog is 8 years old and came out when the MPC market was at its peak. Real prices on MPC have dropped probably close to 2/3 of what the catalog says. Dealer prices, however, have not moved. They are trying to hook the fish who does ot know any better and is using the Schwan catalog as a guide.
Price is also regional. A guide may be based off prices in the area the writer lives in, while in other areas the price may be more or less. I collect old US copper...it has been, in my experience, less expensive in the northeast than where I live in the southwest. Capped bust halves, though, are just the opposite. Region plays a huge role in price, regardless of what published price sheets may say. Guy
I think your right on there Jim! here was one example i found that was just amazing to me I wont name the dealer but he had a stack of graded Mpc which at the show was mostly Few and far between, i went there on Thursaday to drop of my notes at PCGS and then Returned on Friday to pick them up that,s when i spotted them these were all very high Grade and for the most part but i found something mind blowing can you tell me which One of these notes was selling for $2,000 Series 691 $5 68EPQ POP 2 (none higher) Series 651 $1 69PPQ POP 4 (None higher) Series 541 $1 67EPQ POP 1 (None higher) Series 692 $5 67PPQ POP 2 (None higher) Series 611 $5 67PPQ POP 2 (None higher) Give up? would you believe the Series 651 it,s ultra high grade but there our four of them So that note will be setting for some time to come
Not sure if someone else already posted this, so sorry if this is repeating. But there can be tremendous variation in how coins look for a given grade. You can have an ugly MS63 sell for 0.7x and a stunningly toned MS63 of the same date and mint go for 2x. Guides are just that, guides.
Quite frankly, I would be shocked to see any of those notes sell for $2,000.00. None of them have come close to that price in Heritage sales.
I do not want to change the topic - as where I buy & sell antiques & collectibles , besides coins for personal hobby. Almost any guide or refrance book price are sky high, I have found that out . I use them as a guide only, to price my items if i can make 25% - 30% profit I am pleased . Plus I get more and more knowledge. Sandy
If you know your series, this can really work to your advantage buying on auction sites like eBay. Many eBay sellers with large inventories will price their items at exactly or maybe + / - $5 of the "book value" of an item. They have too much inventory to be knowledgeable about all of the items, so they just slap a price on the item, and post it on the BAY. In the absence of price information all together, they may also just guess on a price based on a similar item but of a different date/series, etc. I don't collect notes, but in the arena of coins this is certainly true! I have gotten some amazing deals on top-pop coins, with very small populations. I purchased a top-pop Sacagawea $1 with a known PCGS and NGC combined population of 32 coins for $49. Of this particular coin, I have seen only one other of it's type posted and it sold for more than $500. I was sad when this seller stopped posting new items...
Though all of these i would consider tough notes to find in theses respective grades only The Series 651 $1 in PCGS 69PPQ was up for sale for $2,000 (this grade has not been put Up for auction on heritage) but would say the value would be between $400-$600 in today,s Market max only the 69PPQ would bring it up to that price 68,s and 67,s would sale for Considerably less.
