why NGC coins do not cross to PCGS (a theory)

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by WingedLiberty, Jul 18, 2011.

  1. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Well that's a big part of your problem right there. NGC doesn't have a price guide of their own, all they do is copy the Numismedia Price Guide. From the NGC web site -

    "The rare coin values shown in the NGC Coin Price Guide are independently compiled and edited by NumisMedia based on real, documented market transactions."


    You notice they say "market transactions" - not realized auction results. There is a big difference between the two. Market transactions can be any sale of a coin made by anybody to anybody. As in a dealer selling to a collector, a collector selling to a collector, or an auction result. It can even be an ebay sale.

    As for the PCGS price guide -

    "The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins."

    Again, that is taken directly from their web site and the bolding is not mine. And you may also wish to notice that on the PCGS web site, directly under the link for the Price Guide, there is another link - Auction Prices Realized.

    Rather obviously they are 2 different things.

    As I have said a thousand times before, forget price guides - all of them ! Throw them out the window. If you want to know the real world value range for any coin then just look them up in the auction results. And if you do that you will soon see that the "belief" of PCGS coins selling for more is largely just so much hot air.

    Coins don't sell for more because of the plastic they are in. Coins sell for more because they are nicer for the grade than other coins of the same grade - regardless of the plastic they are in. Unless of course there's an idiot buying the coin - or a Koolaid drinker. :rolleyes:

    Regarding the coin you chose for your comparison, it's a terrible example to use. The reason it's a terrible example is because there are less than 10 coins (graded by PCGS and NGC combined) in PF65 BN or above. There are less than 20 coins of PF BN in all grades - again for PCGS and NGC combined.

    Now if you changed that to PF65 Red/Brown the combined population jumps to over 50 coins. And if you change it to PF65 Red there are less than 20 with another 20 or more graded higher.

    So when you're trying to compare something, choose a coin that at least has a large enough population to use for comparison purposes.

    As for the prices themselves in various grades, you can check them here - http://coins.ha.com/common/search_r...of VDB&Nty=1&N=51+790+231+328&chkNotSold=0&Ns=

    But pay attention to the dates of the auctions, and even more importantly when you're doing your comparisons - pay attention the coins. You'll quickly see that the reason for the price differences, regardless of the plastic, is because of the coin itself ;)
     
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  3. WingedLiberty

    WingedLiberty Well-Known Member

    I would simply judge the coins independent of the holder. If you think the 2 are similar buy the cheaper one. If the PCGS looks a lot better than the NGC, you would need to judge if it's worth the extra money to you. For me, I never, ever buy something based on what the plastic says, or whose plastic it is, as long as it's either PCGS or NGC (which are the two TPGs I have come to "basically" trust over the years). ((Not saying there aren't great coins in other TPG's plastic)).

    However because of the Registry Set "game" that PCGS has, I do think there are more buyers interested in PCGS holdered coins (which I think may tend to drive prices up in some cases).
     
    harrync likes this.
  4. rev1774

    rev1774 Well-Known Member

    How about this comparison a modern commemorative

    2000-P $1 Leif Ericson PFUC70 NGC price 1030
    2000-P $1 Leif Ericson DCAM70 PGCS price 3000
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  5. WingedLiberty

    WingedLiberty Well-Known Member

    post photos of each ... (i think $3000 is a LOT to spend on a modern commem though ... even 1000 is a lot to spend on a modern $1 silver commem IMO)
     
  6. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    For many years PCGS told their graders not to assign the 70 grade to coins, even if the coin deserved the 70 grade. This falsely inflated the value of PCGS 70 coins and that false inflation still carries over today.

    And by the way, PCGS has changed those rules regarding the 70 grade in recent years. Today they will routinely assign the 70 grade. With modern commems, PCGS will often assign the 70 grade to 80% or more of the coins that are submitted to them.

    So anybody who pays those inflated prices for PCGS 70 grade coins - well, let me be nice and say they are not being very smart.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  7. rev1774

    rev1774 Well-Known Member

    I agree with you on that comment I would never pay that type of money either. I do check auction prices as well for something I might be interested in getting, those were the price guide amounts and not what was offered for sale.

    I guess when wanting to get a 70 versus a lower grade and the only way is thru an online venue,, with that much of a price guide difference it can make it a bit more difficult going with one or the other.
     
  8. eddiespin

    eddiespin Fast Eddie

    If I can add anything to that, it's learn how to technical grade. On that issue, when you get into mint state, you're basically looking at two broad categories of criteria, contacts and luster. Familiarize yourself with the market, and so much the better, now you can assign grade numbers off that technical criteria.
     
  9. RedTiger

    RedTiger Member

    I agree with the point about checking auction results. I disagree with some of the other points. There are swaths of the coin market where PCGS plastic does tend to mean a significant price difference at auction. Again, they may not apply to the coins that the person making such statements buys, but there are certainly many cases where it does apply. For high value coins, say numismatic coins above $2000 in value, the price differences tend to be greater than for lower value coins. Some examples in lower price ranges might include high grade Buffalo nickels, most high grade moderns (post 1950) and ultra moderns (post 1982). There are many more, these are off the top of my head where auction archives will show strong evidence of real and measurable average differences, not one or two exceptional coins. Again, best for collectors to check the archives for the coins they collect. It can also be informative to look at results for other companies as well, because the average price differences are often even greater. Again, isolated examples are one thing, many data points become evidence.
     
  10. ML94539

    ML94539 Senior Member

    I agree with GDJMSP about PCGS's modern MS70 or PR70 grading policy, they used to be very strict, very few coins were graded 70, in the past year or so, there have been many coins graded70.
     
  11. eddiespin

    eddiespin Fast Eddie

    RedTiger, you're not giving enough credit to their Ministry of Propaganda...I mean, their "Marketing Department" (yeah, that's the term)...for those auction price disparities.

    Disclaimer: IMHO. ;)
     
  12. kidkayt

    kidkayt Senior Member

    IMHO there is way tooooooo much hype in the grading and trading coin business. Coin collecting though is still honorable and a very balanced hobby. With regards to the 70 grade, it is hardly considered the ultimate seal of approval. There are many 69-grade coins which are equally appealing gems. I am currently putting together a set of choice PF69 grade statehood quarters. Apparently the "CAC" label was supposed to filter through the ******** and authenticate the authenticators, to keep them all honest. But the source of this additional benefit is again from the same pool. So now we have grades, + grades, secure grades, first strike, early release, special labels, population stats, and so on. Perhaps PCGS or NGC are thinking of a new special grade verification process where they hold on to the coin for an extra day, and use three more graders to give it a regrade? And they expect some customer to no doubt shell out more for this type of nonsense. I recall that one well known dealer speculated a while back that he had one of the very first dollars struck by the USMint and that George Washington had "very likely" handled it. Needless to say it convinced the next buyer to purchase it at an healthy extra premium, and the TPGs could certainly have thought up a special label and designation for this particular gem. I cite this as a good example of the near eccentric whims that have come into play in coin grading and pricing. But as stated in this forum : Buy the Coin!
     
  13. RedTiger

    RedTiger Member

    >>
    RedTiger, you're not giving enough credit to their Ministry of Propaganda...I mean, their "Marketing Department" (yeah, that's the term)...for those auction price disparities.

    >>

    While there is an element of marketing, I attribute most of the wide price differences to differences in relative populations at a given grade, that, and registry competition. In some series there might be five times as many NGC coins at a given grade level vs. PCGS, so the NGC coins are naturally going to trade for less. Marketing is likely only a minor influence when the supply is that much greater.

    There are many series with many grades where there really isn't a measurable price difference. Again, collectors would do well to check the coins they tend to buy, not take someone else's word for it. If the price differentials were primarily due to smoke and mirrors and marketing, that wouldn't be the case, the price disparities would tend to be more uniform. I prefer the simpler explanation, that there are far more NGC coins at certain grade levels for certain coins. More supply means lower prices. Both companies publish pop reports and both can be accessed via the Heritage auction archives.
     
  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Red Tiger -

    As I have said several times now, it is accepted as fact by those with knowledge and experience that with some series PCGS does have tougher grading standards, and that with some series NGC has tougher grading standards. So yes, there are some coins where those slabbed by PCGS do bring higher prices on average. I don't dispute that.

    However, the problem comes in because the general coin buying public is not aware of this. All they know is that for decades now fans of PCGS have shouted from the rafters that PCGS is the better grading company. They look at the exceptional examples that bring higher prices, they read and listen to the advertising, they read the comments posted on the forums by PCGS fans, they look at the various price guides, and they accept across the board that PCGS is the better, the tougher grading company. That - is the myth.

    But the truth is it isn't any better or tougher, it is just different than NGC. The two companies have entirely different grading standards and they cannot be compared to each other in that manner.

    And no, nobody should just take my word for this. Anymore than they should just take your word for what you say. What they should do is look for themselves, check the realized auction prices for any type of coin that they may be interested in. And I don't mean just 3 or 4 or 10 or 20. Look at them over a period of years. There are thousands and thousands of auction records that can be easily checked. And not just Heritage, but all the auction companies.

    In some ways what you are saying and what I am saying are the same thing. But if you read between the lines it appears that you still have a bias towards PCGS. Well, you're allowed, you can have your favorite if you wish just like anybody else. But I urge everyone to do as I suggest, look for yourselves.
     
  15. WingedLiberty

    WingedLiberty Well-Known Member

    All good points ... Here is the link to PCGS's auction prices realized ...

    http://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/

    For some of the coins I checked, PCGS listed PCGS, NGC, and ANACS graded coins ... as well as raw coins .
    Here is an example page ...

    http://www.pcgs.com/AUCTIONPRICES/details.aspx?r=3302&v=VDB&dv=1909 VDB&pf=PR&c=46&g=0

    Be sure to watch the dates. The page above goes back 7 years.
     
  16. 10gary22

    10gary22 Junior Member

    I agree totally that TPG is a business first and foremost ! If you notice, PCGS has marketed themselves through dealers. I saw in much earlier posts that people were urged to submit to PCGS because they would not only get a better "bulk rate", but higher grades which resell for higher prices. Somehow, this makes sense as to how they garnered so much of the market. Face it, no major business except for car rental companies is going to say they are not the "best". If you don't acknowledge you competetor, you are implying they are inferior. I mean, I have been buying PCGS graded coins for as little $1.04 on eBay, so you have to wonder what's up with that.
     
  17. eddiespin

    eddiespin Fast Eddie

    As a matter of fact, why do you think all the big dealers continue to hang out, there, and why do you think those forums continue to thrive and remain so popular? We've seen those big dealers come out, here, from time to time, but they never remain here for very long. Let's just say, they know where the feeding is. Let's credit that to the way PCGS continues to (I'm being polite, here) "market" those consumers, there.
     
  18. rev1774

    rev1774 Well-Known Member

    I don't subscribe to that service so I can't see those realized auction prices...
     
  19. Wally Taylor

    Wally Taylor New Member

    Maybe slightly off topic, but in the ballpark, PCGS RESTORATION WORKERS ARE GENIUS. I had an expensive Proof Silver Eagle (over $700). It had a small milk spot when brand new. I sent it in to PCGS RESTORATION, not the $5 milk spot treatment. It was probably just a little soak in Acetone, but when I got it back, the spot was gone, and ZERO marks where it was. It cost me $70, and the grade remained at PF69, but this is a BEAUTIFUL 69, and still spot free after a year. I think it would probably be an NGC PF70. It's just one of those PCGS SILVER EAGLES with absolutely no marks at all, anywhere. All mirrored surfaces are perfect. The coin is just awesome, and it had been a PCGS PF69 with the little milk spot. When I got it back, I thought it should be a PF70 for certain, but they may have some little thing that they look for. I think it was well worth the $70, because I wanted it in my collection. I'm just WAY happier having a beautiful and rare Silver Eagle PF69 that looks for all the world a PCGS PF70 WITH NO MILK SPOT. I HAVE A PAIR OF 25x surgeon's glasses, and the milk spot was completely lifted off with not even the tiniest mark. It just had to be a very tip top surface spot. Milk Spots CAN be removed by PCGS with NO DAMAGE. But it has to be a small spot, very light in color, and on a Silver finish, and not a mirror or a puffy Ultra Cameo lumpy finish. And I'm certain that it was Acetone or an experimental mix. I also think it has to be a nearly new coin. I'm just thrilled to have a beautiful, spot-free Eagle in my collection that I thought was a goner. I just want to say that those guys are GOOD! I wish I could send it in for CAC certification, but they don't do Silver Eagles. All that I can say is that PCGS RESTORATION SERVICE is worth a shot if You have a coin that you love.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  20. Tater

    Tater Coin Collector


    Hum
     
  21. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Very valuable information, thanks....did they open up your slab and then re-seal it ?
     
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