My Next 3 Purchases ...

I agree with Medoraman, most people will chase investment that have gone up recently. real estate was hot a few years ago, i have lots of coworkers buying second and third homes, their investments are all under water now. PM have gone up alot, my mistake is always go in the other direction too early, I shorted PM when gold was at $1000, it continued to go up.... I think to have successful investment is buying what is low and sell high, it's difficult to make money when you buy high and hope to sell higher. I am buying what I consider to be undervalued coins, it might go up or it might go down some more. Life is a gamble.

 

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You're not at all. We're all coin junkies here and love talking about them and helping others, whether you're a collector, investor, or just curious. Hope you hang around a while and continue to learn.
Guy

 

I most definitely will stick around Guy!!!! :smile

 

Yes, I concur with Guy. No question is dumb or will insult us. We are just people who like talking about coins and helping others really. We are not snobs who look down at anyone on their collecting or bullion investing path.

I doubly like topics like yours since I have taught graduate school in Finance and Econ and trust me, most of those students do not have any brighter questions than you have, but I love to teach.

Chris

 

I have to tell you all ... I belong to ALOT of different message boards across a variety of topics, and I've yet to come across a group of people as nice (and educated) as those of you responding to this thread. I sincerely thank you and truly do look forward to learning from each and every one of you.

@medoraman, based on your expertise, I would be very curious to hear your thoughts on where you feel Gold and Silver are heading over the remainder of this year and 2012. Obviously, no pressure ... but you certainly have the experience in this area to have some opinion!

 

I would look at threads in the bullion forum. I get disagreed with a lot over there. I do not know where the top will be, but I think long term the economic problems will settle themselves out and we can return to normalcy. Based upon long term economic value, silver seems a little high, blindly looking at the data I would have guessed a $20-25 value today. Not saying today is overvalued, or it cannot go up more, just that not enough of a buy for me to label it a purchase point. I looked at it the same way in the early 90's when I bought most of my silver, and thought then it was a good long term buy. Gold to me looks about right from 100 years of data adjusting for inflation. Both are good hedges in portfolios, but too risky to be too large a percentage of your overall assets. Above 20% of all assets and I would be concerned.

Just some thought, and I am sure over in the bullion forum I would be labelled a crackpot and dead wrong. I personally own more silver than gold, but at this point I am thinking of adding a little more gold, since my other assets have grown.

Edit: having said all of that, if you buy common coins for silver value, then you are also getting the value of the hobby as a "return". I woudl not say to not buy common silver coins to collect and enjoy would be a bad buy. My silver comments were directed at bullion only.

 

@GJ1103, I've been using Coinflation ... useful site. With silver growing by leaps and bounds it's been difficult recently to pick up half dollars at a reasonable rate. If you have experience in this area, what do you feel I should expect to pay above melt value for a coin?

@medoraman, none of us has a crystal ball, so it's hard for me to say who is crazy and who isn't. Hind-sight is a wonderful thing! I do agree with you that having PM above 20% of total assets sounds extreme. Honestly, I'm not looking to come close to that number. I decided years ago to play it safe with the long term goal to retire at a relatively young age. Most of my money is in tax free and I don't see changing that any time in the foreseeable future. For me, PM may eventually represent 5 - 10% of my portfolio.

As an aside, according to Monex, silver support is now anticipated at $36.27, then $35.80, and then $35.47 . . . and resistance anticipated at $36.78, then $37.35, and then $37.88.

 

Susan,
I know that I don't need to :dead-horse: echoing what others have said, but numismatics will only be a good investment if you have very, very deep pockets and a thorough knowledge of the rare coin market.

Chris

 

There is an old saying that if you want to make a million dollars in coins, start with 5 million.

 

Hi Susan,
I think the messages you've gotten here are salient. Don't use coins as an investment.

Sure some stories are compelling. But most you don't read about are not.

If you have disposable income, and you love collecting coins, then by all means put some money there. You will enjoy the art, history, and beauty. But if you're looking to invest, there are many safer, better places than coins.
Lance.

 

This was well stated. Not saying you couldn't be the exception but I'd guess for the most part, this statement holds true. This topic is a well blazed trail. Seems like a couple new people a week arrive here to announce they want to to invest in coins but have no knowledge of them. And almost every one of them has started buying up coins before buying a single book on the matter.

On the other hand, I couldn't go this far. I will say coins may not be that good but to say there are so many safer and better places to go is stretching it, IMO. I think the reason so many people are coming up with the idea of coins is because they're lost. What's left? Sure, my savings account is safe and liquid but it's earning 0.35% interest!! What's a good CD now? 3%? lol

Do you send it to the wall street game and let the insiders run away with the profits time and time again? Just because the dow is back to 12k doesn't mean we're back in business and things are good! That's actually horrendous given the fact that we hit 10k in 1999.

At least coins are something physical that you have and can get to. When your money's sitting in wall street it's far, far away, and not easy to get your hands on again. The furthest it could be away from your pocket and still claim you own the value of it.

Is real estate safer? The bottom dropped out and seems to be still falling. I'm absolutely shocked at the value lost between me and my friends' properties. Over the last 8 years, we may as well have thrown a pile of cash on the ground and taken a match to it. The banks took it all and our properties have plummeted from where they were 10 years ago. And it's probably not over yet because the few people left that do have a job, will never be able to afford a house or property anyway. Driving our values down even further.

So I'm not sure where all these safe havens are but if you can buy something that just retains value, you're doing pretty good these days.

 

Aside from a rant I guess I could offer you the help you were looking for.

Check out "Collecting and investing in rare coins" by Q David Bowers. He is well known and a highly respected figure within the hobby. It's a relatively large and in depth book that may help you. You may not be interested in every section as some of it is fairly dry, even for a die hard collector. But there's some great tips on different series' you may be interested in.

 

KEY DATE COINS! Get the gray sheet and pay fair prices for the key dates. Do not get caught up in auctions and pay stupid prices for your coins. I was at a auction in Custer SD a month ago and watch two guys get caught up in bidding and all common since went out the window. They payed $3800 for a Three dollar gold (common Date) graded VF by NGC. And NON silver Ike dollars brought $32 EACH. And on the key date coins buy them PCGS, NGC, or Anacs graded. Also buy coins that are so outstanding looking that even in a poor market everyone will want to buy them!

 

Here a bit more about 1st spouse coins & mintage's.
http://www.cointalk.com/t66591/#post1219198

 

What I always write when then subject of coin investments comes up:

Some folks do well financially in coins. They tend to share certain traits:
1) superior grading skill, a natural talent honed with study
2) superior market knowledge, usually by spending endless hours in a hobby they love
3) superior dealer and collector connections. This gives access to better coins at better prices when buying, and also yields more money when selling.

Be above average in all three areas and a person will likely do well financially, as well as enjoy the hobby. Be below average in one or more areas and break even is a good result given a five year holding period. A person that is below average in all three is likely to lose money (this is for numismatic coins, pure bullion plays are a separate category). The series, the individual coins don't really matter as much as the three traits. An expert grader, with excellent access, and vast market knowledge can do well financially in virtually any series, with any coins. Someone below average in all three areas will have to luck into a series or coins that go up, and the odds are stacked against them.

There is a much larger group that does poorly financially. They to share certain traits:
1) They don't know much about grading and don't want to learn
2) They buy coins mostly as an investment, and don't care much about the hobby aspect
3) They often buy their investment coins at a single source, sometimes at way above market prices.

So a person needs to have an honest assessment regarding the three areas: grading skill, access to coins, market knowledge. All three can be improved upon, and will yield more in the way of financial return in coins, than any possible "hot tips" as to series or individual coins, from a public forum on the Internet.

 

Thanks again everyone. I feel that I've gotten alot of excellent advice.

 

Absolutely you are very right!!!:thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb: 5 STARS TIPSTER!

 

My only advice is this. Don't buy from, and sell to, full-time coin dealers. Do this and you're already ahead of the game.