I bought this coin merely for its aesthetic appeal (in military uniform) about 30 years ago, then for $405. I now see astronomical prices realized at auction ($10,000+). It has not been slabbed, and I believe it's 100% genuine. Is it time to sell? or is the market for genuine China coins look like it's got more to go?
With all of the counterfeit pieces out there it will almost HAVE to be certified before sale. I personally am flipping the Chinese stuff as fast as I can. Got a pic?
Absolutely. Do you have an opinion NGC vs PCGS? I don't have any experience with their popularity among foreign coins, (although I prefer the NGC "look" of their slab.)
The higher dollar stuff tends to do better in PCGS holders at auction. So if you are thinking of selling it... That's your best bet. I have a feeling soon that most if not all auction houses are going to mandate that every Chinese coin is certified before consignment.
Its very hot but I think the good stuff still has some room to run. Chinese antiquities hit "insane" levels for common stuff a few years ago and still going up. I just stick to the cash coins which aren't nearly as popular in China but I like. I think I know enough to detect most fakes, and buy through good dealers.
Would you characterize (if it's even possible to know) if the prices currently being realized are a result of speculation or real collectors?
To me it doesn't matter. A "market" is simply the price at which items are changing hands, regardless of reason. In antiquities you have a lot of Chinese nationalist pride in bringing back their antiquities from overseas. They feel they are repatriating them, which is fine and I feel good for them wishing to be involved in their history. I think some of that is going on in coins as well.
It's a result of the Chinese having money... and not much to spend it on. They are buying back their cultural antiquities and collectibles on a massive level. I have a customer who is Chinese and who owns a factory there. He says that there really isn't anything to buy there... and when he comes here if he sees something like a watch.. or a fancy lamp he likes he will buy 5 of them because he fears he may never get the chance to buy them again. You get the folks who have money and like antiquities and coinage. They are really eating it up.
A lot of the gold and silver specialty coin sets hardly sold in China. These were made mostly for sale outside of China. They are discovering these relatively modern sets these days and buying them as well.
But in my experience there's a difference between a market that's manipulated and a one driven by collector demand. The collectors tend to hold on to their purchases which pushes the values higher. Manipulators come and go and those that follow get burned. Again, this I know from experience.
That, and the dysfunctional, highly manipulated, and overpriced stock markets there and I can see why the rich do not know where to put their money. I have rish friends in Thailand and there they buy real estate versus any stocks, since those stock markets in a lot of ways are like ours were 100 years ago. This is meaning the insiders make all of the money and small investors regularly getting stolen from. Real estate in Thailand is so overpriced that Chiang Mai is more expensive per acre than land in Chicago or LA. LD is completely right decent options for capital is another factor driving this market. It also drives Asian appetite for gold. At least the market will not be able to steal your life investment if you have it under your bed. This fact could actually complicate people's PM feelings. If these areas of the world change their opinions on domestic stock and bond markets, there could be a seismic shift in demand for gold.
I wouldn't say manipulated, just "hot". Hot markets can also cause losses if a person buys at the top. There are just way too many buyers for this market to feel its being manipulated, but LD is the dealer, not I. He probably has a better read on it than I do.
The market for Chinese coins is just hot hot hot. Similar to Russian coins several years ago (They are still hot.. just not nuclear like a couple years ago). I feel that why buy and hold is the way for some personally I want to be selling into this hot market as much as possible before it's gone.
the only chinese coins i have or would even buy are bona fide circulation issues.....the rest are out of my remit due to the amount of forgeries which are around at present.
