I've been pitched first year issue sets with one of the selling points being that first year issue mint sets always increase in value. Most recently, I was told that the 5oz America the Beautiful graded mint state set (the 5 coin set) WILL ABSOLUTELY appreciate in value. Is that statement legit? Is that a realistic statement on the AtB set? Is that a realistic statement on other past 1st year issue mint sets? This is my first post, but I've been lurking here for a while and I really appreciate the education the community has provided. Thanks CT community!
There really is no correct answer to your question. 1st year issues can appreciate and they can depreciate and have done both. No one knows for sure before hand. Having a low number of the 2010 ATB's minted (33k for each of the bullion and 27k for each of the "P" mint collectibles) and an almost unlimited number for 2011 and forward, the 2010's MIGHT appreciate. The only way that will happen, though, is for more people to become interested in them in the future. If they do, they may create a demand for the 2010's. It has been said here on CT many times, and I paraphrase here, don't collect coins as an investment, you'll be disappointed.
Well it's kind of hard to say. Exactly what do they mean by a first year of issue mint set? If I look at the US Mint sets, then yes they do appear to all be higher than issue price for those sets that had a first year of issue coin in it. But most of the increases over issue price are very small. The largest in the 1964 mint set, but it is way up mainly because of the silver content and even on that set its growth rate of 5% per annum is not much compared to the official 3% inflation rate. In other words over 57 years it has beaten inflation by $7 The 1973 mint set, first one with the Ike dollar in it is up a little more than double. But the annual rate is 2% or a $9 loss to inflation. (How much higher the current price would have to be just to break even with inflation) The 1975 bicentennial set is up about 20% absolute, but that is about 1% per annum or a $14 loss to inflation The 1979 set with the SBA is still about at issue price so that's a $12 loss to inflation. The 1999 -2003 sets are all selling at about issues price so those are inflation losses of from $3 to $5 to inflation The 2004 set is a winner with an 11% per annum return or $11 above inflation Probably, most govenment set go up for awhile right after the come out, and again right after the mint cuts off sales. The problem is usually within a few years the price starts to fall and usually within ten years they are back at issue price or less. Hmmm you said Mint sets but your comment about the ATB set makes me think you may be talking about the Proof sets. So proof sets for those same years. 1964 4% per annum beat inflation by $8 but mainly for the silver. 1973 0% $13 loss to inflation 1975 1% $10 loss 1979 -1% $13 loss 1999 - 04 99 is a winner at 5% a $7 gain over inflation, 00 is a huge loser -6% per annum a $36 loss, 01 winner 14% per annum $45 gain, 02 3% $0 gain, 03 another big loser -6% $11 loss, 04 winner 6% $4 gain
Thanks! Thanks to the both of you for your thorough answers! Yes, I must have been mistaken with my Mint statement, I meant Proof. I was just trying to figure out if they were playing with facts or just outright making stuff up. Also... I don't collect for investment (I don't have that much faith in myself!). Thanks!
