After silver goes back down ...

I think it will go even lower, but not quite that quick. First we have to pass the Hyperinflation crisis, then the Fed will have to be replaced en mass as the Debt monetization plan proves disastous. When the downward pressure on the value of the dollar ends and rate of return once again becomes a bigger issue than capital conservation, only then will the price fall steadily. Remember - commodities have 0 rate of return other than the movement of the price of the commodity and it is usually associated with some ongoing expense (storage, protection, etc.)

I'd guess we're at the 1974 point in this cycle and we still have to go throught the Carter Hyperinfaltion stage, Reagan reaction stage and a couple of years of actual economic growth. This cycle takes about 10 years.

Mark my word, a mortgage below 12% will soon be a distant memory, even though it looks ridiculously bad today.

 

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I agree with you.

 

Marshall is 100% correct. In 1980 you could sell close to spot on the way up. Once the Hunt's defaulted and the silver market started declining no one wanted to buy, and 50% of spot was not unheard of.

Regarding whether common coins will be around, of course they will. Bags of common silver is a popular way to invest in silver, and most of these bags stay as they are, just trading on spot prices. Btw, these bags put together when silver is high are great deals, since when silver goes low a lot of the coins in there get back their numismatic premium they don't have at $30 silver.

Two years ago the physical premium went up since many were expecting silver to go back up. Yes, dealers hate selling for $15 what they bought at $30, but eventually they will. I remember in 1982 dealers still trying to get $20 an ounce out of bags since that is what they paid. These dealers will sit on these, unsold, until they finally see silver prices won't save them and then they will sell at the market price. I would say it would take 2 or 3 years to shake these things loose at spot from bullheaded sellers.

That is the history, and it usually repeats itself. So basically if silver plunges to $15 expect to have to wait a year or two to buy a lot of bags of silver at silver value, and that goes for most bullion as well.

 

Silver will go up throughout the rest of the year. With the municipal and state debt crises looming on us, and the reestablishment of the Euro, I see dollar confidence dropping and giving both gold and silver a boost.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110217/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/17/business/main20032783.shtml

 

If silver is supposed to "Go Back Down", somebody better tell "Her" she's currently going in the wrong direction.

 

Nice day, but one day doesn't show a trend. I know some don't believe in technical analysis, but the 31.80 becomes a resistance now with 30.65 the support. Still, one day doesn't make a technical call either, but it gives something to consider. The last 2 advances stayed within the trading range for about 1 week until it broke resistance. With the weekend and market holiday on Monday,tomorrow will bring some interesting decisions.

Jim

 

SIlver just broke $32.19 10:54 a.m. The highest weekly gain since 1980 .

 

Sometimes the most dramatic rise occurs just before the fall. I remember a spike to over $40 just as the Hunt fiasco was about to collapse the market.

If I remember right, the Hunt Bos. bought at the peak and when the market wouldn't sustain the increase, they couldn't make the margin call which precipitated the collapse.

I'm not saying that's what's happening here, but the patterns of investment usually repeat at some level.

Anyway, coins will rise and fall, but industrial demand is unlikely to require massive melting.

The US Mint on the other hand...

 

Now at 32.76 . Maybe we will get to $33.00 today.