Interesting Article - Looking for Good Coin Buys

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I read the article and I noticed the NY Subway Hoard. I found 2 articals about that hoard that I didn't know about. Thanks for posting.

 

thanks GDJMSP! Very interesting article.
coinsngolf

 

Great article GD. Thanks!

Some of what he is talking about is exactly why when I buy a coin, I look at the mintage figures, but also at some grading service population reports. The pop reports can tell you a lot I believe.

 

Great article, thanks for posting. Do you think the same logic applies to gold coins? In theory all circulated gold coins were melted and that would leave very few in the VF-G range.

 

NGC and PCGS dont grade "problem coins" so that may throw off the #'s if you only look to those 2 companies. recolored, cleaned, scratched, etc etc. i dont know how much this would effect the overall #'s but its something to consider.

 

[q]
Of the 1939-D, the most expensive of the three, NGC has graded 535 as MS-65 and PCGS close to 750. The 1942-D, which is about half the price of the 1939-D, shows totals of 340 at NGC and 204 at PCGS in MS-65. While the 1939-S, at about a third the price of the 1939-D, has totals of 291 at NGC and around 450 at PCGS. Clearly the totals do not support the current price differences.[/q]

It's interesting that he looks at the highest priced coins in the series and simply ignores the scarcest issues. 1280 '39-D's are graded by the services in MS-65 or higher. Guess what? NGC has graded two, that's right 2, 1982-P quarters in MS-65 or higher. The common '83-P has had four graded at this level. His own (Krause) value guide lists the 1939-D at $125 in Ms-65 and the '83-P at $4. Does something seem amiss to anyone else or is it just me?

Anyone who thinks they can just go buy rolls of the '83-P and run up the pops is simply mistaken. There are two problems with this idea. The first is that the rolls are extremely difficult to find. They may not be quite as tough as the '39-D but that's only because the '39-D had a two generation head start on getting busted up. The second problem is that while the mint made lots of nice quality coins in 1939 this was hardly the case in 1983. People hadn't looked at their coins in twenty years except to check for wheaties or war nickels and were not likely to notice or complain that the coins all looked like junk. Where the 39-D can be found in many thousands of collections and many will be gem, this is hardly true for the newer coins. While people were busily not looking at their coins in that era they were also busily not collecting them.

So what do you want for your $125? A single '39-D which is obviously undervalued at todays prices or about 35 1983-P's? This is a no-brainer to an increasing number of collectors. Much more importantly an increasing number of collectors believe a 1983 coin is just as collectible as a 1939. They are finding that large numbers of the newer coins are not so available as everyone has always told them.

 

Well, to me a 1983 coin is just a slug. I find the 1983 Subway token much more interesting.

Ruben

 

Well, it takes supply and demand. New date Jefferson Nickles hold no interest for me. The coin is a nuisense in my pocket. Some older ones have some interest because the design in very very ***VERY*** high grade is nice to look at older nickles had some value they have some historical value.

A Nickle from 1970 on, couldn't even buy a gum ball most of its circulation life. A nickle is so valueless that the nickle deposit on bottles isn't even returned and have no impact of recycling. This became a humous discussion in the NY City council not too long ago where the city completely gave up on the argument to continue with it (its a hidden tax) for recycling purposes when it was proven to be completely in effective at this goal. Instead the city switched to an argument that the homeless need the deposits to feed themselves and removing the deposit would harm the homeless.

there is very little sentimental value to such a coin.

Ruben

 

The nickel had eroded severely in value by 1983. Indeed, compared to the '39it was worth about one cent. Today it's worth about a third of that. To me this isn't relevant except to the degree it affects their circulation. Very low value coins don't circulate well because there is little incentive to keep them moving. If they aren't tying up much money then one can accumulate large quantities of them. This has applied to the '83 to a far larger extent than to the '39. The '39-D was pulled out of circulation because it had a premium and the '83-P was pulled out because it had no value. Be this as it may though you'll be hard pressed to find an '83 in better than XF. Most are an unattractive VF and there isn't a lot of range in circulation. Interestingly there are also seven distinct varieties of the '82 and these get no interest either.

Just curious but if you don't like an '83 nickel because it's bout equivalent to a penny then do you also dislike half cents because they were even lower value. Is a $20 gold piece superior to a Morgan dollar because it's more money? People collect what they like and if you don't like modern nickels then you don't like modern nickels. The inflation started big in the late '70's. Is this where you cut off your collection? Have you tried finding a nice attractive '70-S or '75 nickel?

It is true that the low prices on the moderns greatly supresses the numbers submitted for grading but even where the prices are plenty high enough to warrant slabbing the populations will be lower than the older coins. Perhaps the number of collectors will cease its growth at these low levels and there won't be a lot of increases in the future. But, every coin in circulation is a calling card and there are more rare coins circulating than at any time since the beginning of the 20th century. They are fun to collect and it seems improbable more people won't discover this. I still have to believe if you are seeking value, it is far more available with the later date coins.

It wasn't too many years ago that Krause was the biggest supporter of moderns. While they don't bash them, they'll go out of their way to not say something positive about them. GDJMSP is right that the story would have been thrown back at Green had he talked much about the '83.

 

You deserve and intelligent answer too this, and I'll get you one tomorrow. Right now its too late and the heat went off for the night.

Ruben

 

Your just not acknowledging the fact that current nickels are a nuicense to the public. People **hate*** them. I have jars of nickels (and pennies) which have no value even to count them. There are hundreds of examples of mint condition coin in them and they still have no value. Coins that are this low in value will never have any historical value.

You said that a nickel has a value of about a penny. This is just not true. The NY Times cost in my mothers generation 10 Cents. It is now $1.00. A Subway ride was a nickel and then a dime. Now it is $2.50. A Phone call is 50 cents, a bottle of Coke $1.50.

A Nickel is a waste and the mint has made 1,000,000,000's of them. And the same is largely true of the rest of the modern coins. These are cold, ugly, hard alloy coins. These coins are hated. They are cheap. They are designed to be cheap. And there are billions of them.

Where not talking about Morgans or Gold Coins. We're talking about Nickels. Modren Nickels are about the cheapest and ugliest things in existence and they are everywhere, like Tribbles.

no offense, but who in their right mind is going to submit a Nickel for grading? - Yes and I know about those "special coins" MS 70s. I don't care. Nobody is going through their change looking for an MS 70 coin to submit.

Never happening...

and you don't really know this anyway. There are BILLIONS. Over a Billion were minted in Phillie and Denver in 1999 ALONE with 2 million proofs. You want to discuss their rarity? Forget about it. Each grain of sand on the beach is truly one in a 100 trillion, and NOBODY collects them. And collectors haven't scanned even small fraction of Nickels, let alone Quarters, Dimes and Zinc Pennies.

And this is the disconnect. They are not calling cards, they are garbage cheap, PIA coins that people hate.

There is no demand for these tokens because nobody has senimental value connected to them.


Ruben

 

"A Nickel is a waste and the mint has made 1,000,000,000's of them. And the same is largely true of the rest of the modern coins. These are cold, ugly, hard alloy coins. These coins are hated. They are cheap. They are designed to be cheap. And there are billions of them."

The fact remains that in 1964 a quarter would buy a candy bar and a Coke from a vending machine and a nickel in change. In 1965 a clad quarter would buy the same products and return the same change. The only difference between the two quarters is that one was made of a metal that could no longer circulate because its value was climbing and the other was made of a more durable and cheaper composition. One of these metals had been in use for 2400 years and the other was high tech had been workable for only about a hundred years. Combined they were one of the most high tech compositions ever made for coins.

It might be interesting to note that the silver coins no longer even work in vending machines and if you want a coke you'll need good clad.

 

"and you don't really know this anyway. There are BILLIONS. Over a Billion were minted in Phillie and Denver in 1999 ALONE with 2 million proofs. You want to discuss their rarity? Forget about it. Each grain of sand on the beach is truly one in a 100 trillion, and NOBODY collects them. And collectors haven't scanned even small fraction of Nickels, let alone Quarters, Dimes and Zinc Pennies."

You're simply mistaken here. There are dozens of rare moderns and without exception they are worth a small fraction of the amount a comparable classic would be worth. There are also many conditionally rare moderns that are fairly scarce even in typical grades. Try to find a roll of 1969 quarters for instance. I've been looking for this roll since 1972 and have yet to see one. I did see some of these in 1969 before I was collecting them and they were horrid. They had terrible strikes and were all marred from many collisions. One is left to seek out one of the few remaining mint sets but these coins are little better. There are no great piles of these which will spew forth large numbers of gems as soon as the price goes up sufficiently. The price is already well over a thousand dollars but where are the coins? The same thing applies to date after date and most of the varieties.

I was always told that no one would ever collect this junk. Now that a handful do collect them I am told that one day they'll wake up and come to their senses.

I believe there are a lot of real collectors seeking these coins and that there will be more in the future. I believe all the arguments against them are purely emotional. Bit it really doesn't matter what you and I believe, it matters only what collectors as a group do.

 

i guess you've never heard of the trade dollar. this coin was HATED in its time and is now worth quite a bit.

http://www.goldfingercoin.com/history/$1_trade.htm

personally i love the new (2005) jefferson obverse , because it looks nice as a design. i bought 2 MS-68 satin finish ones. ( the backs i dont care as much for).

and i understand the "this low in value" part, but any real collector doesnt care about the face value of a coin in determining what they like. really, ANY coin in MS66+ is beautiful depending on your toning preference.

 

<<The only difference between the two quarters is that one was made of a metal that could no longer circulate because its value was climbing and the other was made of a more durable and cheaper composition.>>

The real difference is that one is the end of an era and the other is the beginning of an era. Unless they eliminate coins altogether soon, I doubt the public disintrest will change in our lifetime (or the lifetime of my grandchildren)

Plastic is also ultratech and modern. Not too many plastic tokens (or anything else for that matter) has value. The exception might be vynal records.

Ruben
Ruben

 

Your mixing up apples and oranges here. What does finding a roll of 1969 quarters have to do with the value of a 1969 quarter.

A 1969 quarter is worth 25 cents. Who would make a roll of them? And to say the argument agaist the publics view of collecting 1969 quarters is "emotional" is benegth someone as intelligent as you. Clearly you understand that the ENTIRE value of any coin is emotional. And in a sea of nearly a trillion clad quarters, who CARES if one is 1969, 1989, 1999 or minted yesterday.

Its just another darn ugly clad quarter to throw into the change jar until your sick of them enough to thrw them in the trash.

There is a select few collectors looking for clad coins. Who am I to rain on their parade? But don't bet on their numbers growing to much.


Ruben