Assuming we have a date in the cent world where we had 250 in MS67 RD,,,, and 50 in MS67 RB,,,, none in MS67 BRN and none in MS66 BRN and then 320 in MS 65 BRN. Now assume our 67 RD has toned completely to BN inside the slab,, due to whatever (outgassing from slab resin's,, poor seal on slab and invasive humidity, etc...) Will PCGS and NGC honor the grade and reslab to MS67 BRN, a grade that genearlly requires blinding luster ? 1 - would it be worth it to tone the 67 RD to 67 BN is it would become the top pop brown of the date ?,, provided pcgs and ncg honored the grade.
I'll give you a real life example... look at the 1909 VDB Lincoln Cent. In just looking at the PCGS populations, there are 205 of them in MS67RD. However, there are only 3 in MS67RB and NONE in MS67BN (less than 10 of them in MS66BN). The problem is that usually when a coin goes from RD to RB and then eventually to BN, the luster fades as well. Even if you could prevent that somehow and ensure that the coin would regrade 67RB or 67BN, instead of 66 or 65, I'm still not sure a very low population 67RB would really be worth more than a higher population 67RD. In my 1909 VDB example, only one 67RB has ever sold at auction and it sold when it was the ONLY example certified. it went for $920. The 67RD examples sell in the range from $900-$2000+ depending on the quality of the coin. So even if you bought the cheapest 67RD out there and could make it 67RB, I don't think you'd make any money on it. In practice, I don't think PCGS or NGC would just keep the numerical part of the grade and change the color designation. They would likely have the graders look at the coin and regrade it in its current state where I believe it is highly unlikely that a coin that has turned in color at that numerical grade level would not get bumped down a point or two.
I'd be curious to know what a MS67 BN would bring.... being a 1/0 in the class and "VERY" rare among graded BRN's.... I think I would even consider going heavy consider how unique it would be.... Where the sales dates of all those you looked at in the same range ? In that case, do you think they would honor thier grade guarantee and pay for the difference between grades ?
lol.... done that before,, know the feeling,, especially after you've edited it a few times,,, now I just post the draft and edit after the post....
BahaBully, Illini420's numbers are accurate. I will leave it at that. I think that high grade top LOW pop BN's and RB's can not have market values established since not only are they rare, it is likely that they are going to have a ton of eye appeal, so demand is going to be fluky. For example. there are a couple of members on here who some very colorful copper cent collections that I am certain that they would not sell for the Price Guide values - if they are even for sale at all. That makes them priceless! I think that the same way Woodies are overlooked and undervalued so would any high grade RB or BN. Everyone wants RED. The Market (demand) is smaller for woodies, high grade RB and BN coins so therefore, no demand, no premium. Now with that said, if there are only 3 coins like illini420's 1909vdb 67RB - it only takes 2 people in a bidding war to knock the PCGS price guide of $500 outa the park. What is that they call it? Moon Money? Here again, I think, it actaully depends on how that coin actually looks in hand. and if there are only a couple of examples how do you get one in hand.. duh? right... I know, I know. Furthermore and moving on. Given all the above.... Is it even possible to get a 67RD to go BN? I think not naturally and if you crack it out, all bets are off. So to back up what Mike is saying, I'll post (2) MS65BN coins and a 3rd coin for speculation. CLICK ON THE PICS TWICE FOR HIGHEST RESOLUTION about 30 times actual size! First up is a NGC MS65BN. this coin has superior luster to the second coin however and is much much more colorful than these pics depict. When Imaging I tried to get a balance of both attributes. This second coin epitomizes what Illini420 is saying. This is a PCGS MS65BN. Imagine if this coin was RB or RD. at first glance, to me, it looks to have 66 and 67 details IMO correct me where I am wrong. Ok now.. for kicks and giggles and as sort of a test. Where do you think this coin is currently graded or what do you think it is worth, either CDN or Price Guide, what should be its market value based on the pics. Give me a couple of scenarios, because I am likely to ask the value question again under a different premise.
the 67RB would be worth an average 67RD all day long if it also had unusual positive attributes like colorful toning along with strong strike and luster as 67 should have. IMnoobieO of course!
OK,, so we probably agree that a RD (on average), in the same grade, will be worth more than a RB.. Now if one graded 67 BRN,, I'd be curious, since it would be ultra rare across the entire series and not just it's specific date. Anyway, back to the other question, which is yet to be addressed: Q - if a MS67 cent that toned to RB or BRN was regraded by pcgs or ngc,,,, and it was downgraded to say 65 or 66 due to the loss of luster while in the slab,,, WOULD PCGS AND NGC HONOR THIER GUARANTEE AND PAY FOR THE PRICE DIFFERENCE ?..... is there some 'color' qualifier in thier promise that loops them out of paying for downgraded cents due to color / luster changes ?? As to Eyeeatwheat's questions regarding the posted cents,, first, very nice pics. the first does have nice eye appeal and would probably sell for more than the second. both could go 66 or 67 if they were red and had luster imo.. the second has a hit above the eye that may hold it back more than the first, and the first one appears to have a distincly better strike than the second (more defined rims, lettering, etc.) I'll say the third one is 66 RD.. for value, I'll go with pcgs price guide, whatever that is. It looks like it could have some toning that is washed out by the pic,,,, if the toning is attractive and in fact this coin is RB, then as you say, the price guide drops, but realized price at auction could hold or increase if the depending on the nature of the toning... assuming average coin, then would drop to pcgs price guide for 66 RB. ** which brings me to another thought,,, given no one really pays too much attention to pcgs price guides, I wonder if it wouldn't benefit them to artifically increase thier RB and BRN's price guidance,,, to limit any loss in the above hypothetical,, where one of thier RD's tones to a RB or BRN and the owner calls them on it... maybe save them some $$ if they had to regrade an old MS67 RD to MS66 RB, or even worse,, to a BRN ?
I just realized something. It happens a lot in these type of "values" discussion threads. We should for the sake of clarity define the market. I am at fault here because I feel the casual eBay market will use the PCGS price guides as will sellers to that market and I brought up the PCGS price guide. BTW - I most certainly do use it as a benchmark when valuing Lincoln Cents. whether it be 50% of posted values or double posted values, I still use it as a benchmark. In this thread when we talk about "worth" we are talking about the knowledgeable collector, correct?This discussion regarding copper MS65/66/67 is not necessarily the eBay market?
Yes, they have no choice if the coin is covered under their guarantee. A color qualifier ? No. But there is in some cases a qualifier. For instance, some years ago NGC did not cover copper under their guarantee at all. Then they changed it and offered to cover copper for a period of 10 years. But after that 10 years there was no guarantee. PCGS on the other hand did cover copper under their guarantee, and they used to honor it. They honored it so much in fact that they changed their policy to be that they would no longer cover copper under their grading guarantee. But there is a caveat. Copper that was slabbed before that change in policy is still covered under the guaranntee. Copper slabbed after the change in policy is not covered any longer. So it depends on the date that the coin was slabbed - that is what determines if it is covered under their guarantee or not. It would save them nothing because PCGS does not base the value of any coin on their own price guide. PCGS and NGC both determine the current market value of any coin in any way they want. You as the owner of the coin have absolutely zero say in the matter. You can point to any price guide you want, you can point to any realized auction price you want in any venue, you can point to the Grey Sheet, you can point to anything that says your coin is worth (for examples sake only) $7200. But if they say the coin is only worth $5700, then $5700 is what the value is and that is the number the guarantee is based on.
To add further to Doug's post, PCGS did abandon their COLOR guarantee on copper coins to a great extent. But they now only cover the COLOR for coins owned by you prior to 2009 I think (cant remember the exact date). So all of my copper PCGS coins I bought prior to the cut off date are still covered by their full guarantee. However, if I took one of those coins and sold them to Doug, PCGS wouldn't cover the COLOR of the coin any longer as he would have aquired the coin after the cut-off date, even if the coin was in an older green holder and clearly graded prior to the cut-off date. What hasn't been tested by me personally (or any others that I've heard of) is how PCGS will treat a grade guarantee submission of a MS67RD Lincoln Cent that has been acquired by the owner after the cut-off date of the COLOR guarantee and has since turned in the holder. PCGS is clear that they no longer would guarantee the COLOR designation, but from what I have read, it seems they would still guarantee the numerical grade of the coin. So if that MS67RD got all spotty and turned brown and wouldn't regrade any higher than MS63BN, what would PCGS do??? They wouldn't pay the value difference between a 67RD and a 63BN, because color isn't covered, but would they still pay the difference between 67BN and 63BN because the numerical grade is guaranteed??? That would be hard to do since there is no market value of the non-existent 67BN. My guess is that PCGS would be pretty fair in trying to buy that coin off the market since they probably don't want a really bad looking 63BN quality coin in one of there 67RD holders floating around the market if they can avoid it. Finally, it's important to note that in the past 25+ years PCGS has NEVER graded ANY Lincoln wheat cent as a MS67BN!! I doubt they will do so anytime soon. In that same period, they have only graded 62 Lincoln Wheat Cents as MS67RB (almost all of which are post-1939 examples).
I finally found a 66BN 09VDB asking is 20 times more than PCGS price guide (its handier to look up) considering it is equal to whether I can find a winning lottery ticket. I dunno maybe if I get bored one day and don't have anything else to do with 2k
IIRC.... NGC's copper color guarantee lasts for only 10 years from the time the coin was graded. PCGS changed theirs so that no coins graded after 1/1/2010 has a color guarantee. Coins graded prior to that are only guaranteed to the owner of said coin provided they purchased it prior to 1/1/2010. Bottom line: As collectors, we should be careful when buying RD and RB coins in TPG slabs, as the TPG guarantees are weaker for these coins in comparison to their silver, nickel, and gold counterparts. Even then, remember the TPGs are the sole arbiters when it comes to paying out on their guarantee. That said, I've rarely heard of a disappointed collector when dealing with the TPG guarantees. By and in large, they keep their word and back it up with money...Mike
I'm staying from RD from now on... unless it's a common date and cheap. I've purchased a few pricey cents in RD years ago (3 of them, all pcgs), pricey enough to put in the SDB... I checked them this past month.. two appear to be nearly the same, but one has really 'cherried up' significantly... Fantastically more eye appealing to me !!, but probably won't be RD much longer given it's turn in the past 5 years or so.... probably right at the border of RB now depending on how pcgs grades the cherry red color on cents (either as RD or BN),, if BN, then it RB now... anyway, pretty sure it's not the SDB environment causing the change, nor any other items in the SDB with the coins, so must assume it was either exposed prior to slab or outgass from the slab or other?, dunno,,, but on paper it's likely to cost me ~$500-700 for that one cent. Heck, I find RB's more attractive anyway, and a lot of times you can get RB's in BN holders to boot ; )