Premium pricing for exquisite toning is not new, I was at a show in 1979 where some silver dollars sold for a premium for the toning, (I don't know where they are now, but you have never seen anything like these). I agree they were the most gorgeous coins I ever saw, and have never seen their equal even with the nice silver dollars posted here in the last few days. However, this was an premium because these were rare, (and the premium being 5-8X book), not the common stuff you see being sold at multiples all over the place now just because of a little toning, or because of ugly toning. I do not begrudge anyone paying whatever they like, I just feel this market is overdone nowadays with basically any coin with any toning trying to command a premium. Honestly, a large percentage I see as "gorgeous toned" I would have dipped. Regarding supply, that is where I am really nervous with these price levels. supply can be created fairly quickly, especially of BU silver toned coins. These react quickly under the right environment, leading to our past conversations Lehigh. I have accidentally done this many times, putting fresh silver in certain products just to have, "dang it, my nice white coins are toned and ruined now" moments. Humidity and cheap paper lead to unforeseen actions. The less scrupulous can do it even quicker, since it is a basic chemical reaction. I love your idea of putting all of these together from top to bottom. I do not disagree that the high end coins are rarer than normal. Its just the lower end coins I view as a negative to white, and really be discounted rather than a premium. Maybe my scepticism is seeing what I view as ugly coins demanding a premium. I have no argument with the pretty coins being priced higher, though the level of premium I choke at. Thank you all for your contributions to this thread. I have learned some. I believe the market for very nice toned coins is real, just not for my money, but I think the real danger is the "hanger oners" who pay high premiums for ugly toning because they hear all toning makes a coin more valuable. This is a common reaction, I have had many people come to me telling me, "I heard a 1893 silver dollar sells for $10,000, well I have one from 1881 that is even OLDER, so it must be worth MORE!" Chris
I think it would be a great idea to do a deeper dive into, for instance, Morgan toners. What look drives the high multiples and what look doesn't. That would, I think, be very valuable insight for those not as familiar with toning and how it drives price.
I agree it would be interesting to see all the coin pics in a row and the price paid, but be careful in deriving meaning from the grouping of the pics. Each series has a different demand curve. Obviously, there are many more Morgan Dollar collectors who would like to have a wow toned Morgan than the number of Liberty Nickel collectors doing the same for their nickels.
That is a beautiful coin, more appealing to me than some higher end toners in the thread... and the light tone really accents the frosty white clean coin nicely. I'll say 1k even, and congratulate you on a very nice coin where tone doesn't consume the coin, but rather accents it very nicely.
Really nice rather subtle toning that I personally prefer over monster toned coins, though most would have a different opinion. I would say $930.
I think that is a great idea. Maybe after the current coin is over, we can take a little break from the guess the premium and move in a different direction. Perhaps we start with a day that everyone posts a Morgan with a premium of 1-2X wholesale. The following day we increase the premium to 2-3X wholesale and we continue to raise the premium every 24 hours until nobody has any coins to post. Regarding the MS67 1879-S, Numismedia wholesale is $700 but that toning will not drive a premium. In fact, if a premium exists on this coin, it is more likely associated with the PL surfaces of the obverse and the subsequent cameo contrast. Given the trend of this thread and the fact that I am always high, I am going low on this and guessing that you got if for exactly Numsimedia Wholesale: $700.
Does that not in and of itself tell us all something ? You're a lover of toned coins and because you're lover of toned coins you are willing to pay higher premiums than many others would. Nothing wrong with that. But it is important as to what it tell us. For those who really want to get something out of this thread what people should look at is not the prices being estimated - but rather who is doing the estimating. What you will see, what I have seen, is that those who are the most infatuated, in love with, taken with - (choose your own word or phrase) - toned coins are most often the ones giving the highest estimates. Conversely the opposite is also true. Those who are not so crazy about toned coins are those giving the lowest estimates. I guess what I'm trying to point out here is that what drives the prices on toned coins is emotion, not any particular knowledge or insight into the toned coin market. Anybody can look at realized prices and guess what the price range for similarly toned coins will be. The real question is what causes those prices to attain that range. And the obvious answer is emotion. People are thinking (pricing) with their hearts - not their heads.
Certainly toned coins and their eye appeal evoke emotion from potential buyers. But to classify toned coin buyers as "not thinking with their heads" is utterly ridiculous. That rhetoric only serves to illicit a response where the toned coin collectors claim that non toned coin collectors are slaves to the price guides. The reason that toned coins drive premiums is two fold. The emotional response, and they are also more rare than their untoned counterparts. People who fail to recognize that are, how shall I say, "not thinking with their heads".
Your analysis is right on: I don't really think of this as a "toner" but it does add to the overall eye appeal. 'Snake snuck in the closest guess with $801. I paid $847 altogether. I knew I would lose it at $805 ($700 + 15%) so I covered Cut Bid above it before the auction started and, sure enough, that was what it took to secure it. Thanks for all the compliments about the coin!
I think knowledge of the toned coin market is indeed a large driver in toned coins prices......I don't bid blindly on coins I like just becuase I get a warm and fuzzy feeling and many of my customers are very knowledgable about the market after years of buying. My bids are always based on several factors that of course does include how the coin makes me feel, but also what similar coins have sold for, rarity and quality of toning especially from a per date & mint mark perspective. I would submit that the more educatied you are about toners and the market....the more times your actually going to get a good deal and a good deal to me is one defined as not being burried in a coin at the point of sale. To further illustrate my point I would submit that when I first started purchasing toned morgans I bought from toned coin dealers and relied on them to valuate the coins and I paid the listed prices on their sites. In 2007 when I sold my collection I lost a significant amount of money on the majority of the coins I had purchased in this fashion. I simply did not know to go elsewhere like Ebay or Heritage as I thought the quality and prices of the coins would be better with the specialist since they knew the market. Now fast forward to 2010 and probably 90 to 95% of the coins I buy I get either good deals or I could sell the coin tomorrow for for at least what I paid for it today. This includes coins for my side business as well as coins for my collection....so real world education has made me a much more shrewed buyer in the market so you can balance the head and the heart very easily if one wants too. That's not to say I don't agree with any of your points as I do just simply digging a little further into some of your comentary that would appear on the surface to be a bit off target and not reality from what I have seen. I am quite certain that you could find examples of coins posted in this thread that the buyers simply paid way to much money becuase of the heart factor....I have seen several myself.
OK, I finally win one while I'm not on the road so I can post a coin rather than pass. Hold on while I figure it out.
Is that why Paul that you have admitted on numerous occasions that you pay too much for your coins ? Because you're thinking with your head ??? I'm not being judgemental, just pointing out what I see as being obvious.
OK, having a problem uploading pics. I took the pics off the auction site as I don't have to coin in hand yet and have seen other pics from that site posted here so don't know why I keep getting an error message when I try to upload. Please, someone else post a pic until I can get this figured out, thanks.