Pricey toned Morgan...

Bully,

I don't think the number of toned coins is increasing like you are inferring. Take a look at the serial number of the NGC Morgan in this thread.

1881-S Sonnier-Cowle Morgan Dollar NGC MS66* CAC

This coin has been slabbed for years and has been in the collections of the two pedigreed owners. The coins referenced in this thread represent the upper echelon of rainbow toned Morgan Dollars. Coins of this quality of toning are exceedingly rare and are well deserved of the premiums they drive. To my knowledge, no coin doctor has been able to consistently reproduce coins will this type of toning. However, if they ever do, I agree that it could cause the collapse of the toned coin market.

Bake in a bit of bad economic times huh? We are in the midst of the worst recession since the great depression in the 1930's and the rainbow toned market is doing just fine IMO. The more common material saw the biggest losses, mid grade toners like most of the Battle Creeks and Great Falls coins have lost some value, and monster material like the coins found in this thread are subject to higher volatility than in the past but have performed the best IMO.

At this point I would like to play a little devil's advocate. Suppose that in the next few months a coin doctor unlocks the secret to creating AT coins that look exactly like NT coins. What would the response be by the TPG's and the collecting public? The TPG's would be forced to deem all rainbow toning not market acceptable. As a result, submitters would dip every coin before grading. The result would be that no more toned coins would be introduced to the market. Now what would that do to the coins that were graded prior to the event? Those coins would be still be considered NT since they were already graded. It is possible those coins could actually increase in price since the supply would be fixed. Now I am not trying to predict the future, but this is an alternative theory to the one that assumes that coin doctors will eventually destroy the toned coin market.

What say you!

 

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That is a very interesting thought experiment.

I think you make a good point, and properly pedigreed (and older holder coins) could see a strong upswing at least initially. Over time, however, and with a proliferation of similar-looking copies, I think the premium would go down and maybe even approach 0.

I can't think of a good parallel to compare this to, however....

 

Well first,, complements on the reply.. nice. Showing my ignorance abit here, but I couldn't tell the original coin was bag toned... The one leadfoot posts is easy for me to ID as bag toned, but I missed the texture in the others.
I like your theory of toning price support in a post toner crash induced by supply side surplus... but I don't believe:
1 - tpg's will call an entire segment of coins, especially one that generates $ non-market acceptable... but they may eventually invest in more exacting sniffing and testing equipment, and even charge a premium to certify a toner (hummmm... ya hear that TPG boys,, MORE REVENUE ! ).
2 - coin doctors would flood the market with passable toners. Being smart, the real experts, will probably slowly leak in additional toner samples in a quantity that the market will support.. why destroy thier printing press ?
The manufacture of "outstanding" NT toners is not something I think many are good at (note the number of raw neon doughnuts listed on ebay),, my guess is that these coin doctors fall into a couple groups:
1 - rookies and intermediates who mass tone common coins and maybe get 1 to 5 of 100 that are good enough to fool a tpg, and then sell the rest to the bay for cost and make good on the few that slab. 2 - No crap experts in the field who know the tpg's, know how to tone coins and impart "real" toning skin to a coin in a desired pattern.. these guys probably have done thier homework, know how to pattern tone, have run numerous trials and exacted the methodology,, and spend a few years on each coin (maybe less), know the chemistry to the ppm, can saturate a canvas bag (or book) to that level of sulfer ppm, test the toning medium to ensure the specs are correct,, have enough $ to purchase quality coins, and impart the toning effectively over time....... and then 'leak' these toning monstors into the market at the highest levels and at the highest premiums.....

I think that may already be happening at the lower levels of the market... the higher end will take longer because it is exclusive of rookies and intermediates,,, and the experts and tpg's are not gonna let too many leak in at once and see thier printing press eroded (or tarnished,,,,, or toned ; )

It's all a big conspiracy ... lol.

 

There is a great deal of truth in the above, IMO, and it ain't funny (except to the doctor$).

Coin doctoring is the coin industry's dirty little secret.

 

I think a bigger concern and one newbies should be educated on are all of the raw AT coins out in the market place especially Ebay....I see those as 1000 times more dangerous than a $4000 to $10000 certified toner. I am sure they are out there...but I don't know one single new collector dropping $4000 on toned morgans.....but on the flip side I think we all know hundreds of new collectors buying AT garbage on Ebay.

What you feel comfortable spending your time warning others about is completely up to each individual.....for me I feel like the real threat is the cheap easily accessible junk available.....not the toners priced like cars. Now you may say that the risk is small becuase there is less downside to folks paying $50 for a AT coin then $4000 for a common date Morgan. I don't know if that is the case or not, probably comes down to opinion...but the stability of the toning on the $4000 morgan make me feel a lot safer then having 25 AT morgans that will probably turn black in the next 5 years

 

You guys know what could stop all of this bickering???? Accepting the fact that people collect coins for fun.......... Now theres an idea:thumb:

 

A couple of these look very similar to the OP coin.... lower grade's... and no bidders,,, but if I was gonna spend 4k on toners (which I'm not, nor would i recommend),,, why not just buy this guys entire inventory a get a bunch of pretty coins for the same price ?
Are his premiums excessive ?
http://shop.ebay.com/besscitycoins/m.html

 

I don't know what those coins really look like, as the images appear to be fairly badly juiced.

 

I agree with Mark -- those pics have been enhanced (looks like a combination of contrast and saturation).

 

1887P OGH the toning on the lower right half of reverse is stunning and highly desired, the lighter "pastel" colors on upper right portion are not highly desired. Spots on face immediately remove me and others from being a potential buyer of this coin.

1880S hits on face make this coin less desirable, although the reverse toning is highly sought after.

1884O Unattractive colors....Borderline AT.......Looks like it got in a fight with a garbage disposal.

1885O Carbon spot automatically removes me and plenty others from being a potential buyer.

1885O "GreenMonster" I have actually thought about making this one be my "One Morgan" Marks on obverse are hard to get past. Reverse is stunning!

1882S Once again looks like it got in a fight with a garbage disposal


let me know if you find one like the OP:yes:

 

I agree...no where near the same quality of coins even if the prices are lower.....his prices might be close to fair if the coins looked anything like the images which I suspect they will not. I think for the averge toned Morgan collector...there are some exceptionally attractive coins priced in say the $400 to $800 range and while they may not glow in the dark like the original coin that got this thread started....I think more folks would have a better comfort level jumping in at say a 5x-10x premium for the color vs say a 15x-30x premium. All in all it still comes down to collecting vs investing....toners and coins in general are not good investments in my opinion so if we get down to core collecting then no price is too great for that must have specimen.

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/1880-S-NGC-MS64-MONSTER-OBVERSE-RAINBOW-/390254073324?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item5adcf495ec

here's another that i'd just as soon care to have as any of those on HCoin.... just not close to that price either. I see a few sellers with full showings of toned coins on ebay since this thread opened and I started looking out of curiosity. Have probably looked at a couple hundred,, only 2 had bids.... is the floor getting loose in the lower floors ?
I did see one that I'll keep my eye on,,, I think nice tone, looks like a collector selling via true auction with low starting bid, and currently under 1x, which is where I like'em the best... ; )

 

Very hard to get a feel for the coins as this seller pictures are pretty bad.....I do know that he buys most of his coins on Ebay, marks them up and then throws them back on what bad photos. The flippping part is fine...I do it too but to relist with those photos doesn't seem to be a good business strategy to me but to each his own. I would value that coin at around $300 to $350 based on the photos and in hand....who knows...maybe a bit more. I would guestimate that the seller probably payed less than $300 and is asking nearly $500 so that's probably why it went unsold

 

On this one I would say the images scare buyers away. I dont think there is any way to really know what you are getting with the coin. More than likely a nice coin, but nothing special.

 

~5.4k sold.... lots of other "monstor" toners in auction have been withdrawn,,,,, interesting.

 

Several others sold for big bucks:
http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1145&Lot_No=4219 for $4,600 and
http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1145&Lot_No=4220 for $5,463.

I missed the ones that were withdrawn. Were bids generally high on those beforehand?

 

Don't really know where they were when withdraw,, just noticed that all those I saw that were withdrawn were heavy toners, aka, monsta' toners. I think I remember most of them being in pcgs holders vs. these ngc's...... I agree this is big bucks,, crazy imo... but I wonder what the seller's expectations were, and what he/she paid for them. I'm guessing the one's that were withdrawn did not meet seller expectations, or at least they felt at risk for significant loss, so pulled them in order to try again in another venue or other auction event....

 

I dont see any from this seller that were withdrawn, any links or date/mm?

 

I don't know which seller withdrew thier lots... didn't even know you could tell who the seller was, that's new to me. In any event, those I saw pulled appeared to be in pcgs slabs, and were very nicely toned as well...... maybe the seller saw the prices for the one's in this thread and figured it was time to get some well lit pictures taken and then try again.... dunno. I did find the number of toners pulled interesting however.