The Sky is fallingl on all ms70 and pr70 coins....

This is just an FYI for any newcomers, or even some veterans , who think the high end modern (and that is what is getting the ms70 and pr70 grades) coin market will either hold or even think it will grow.
This is just mho...

I don't like to be the bearer of bad news, but get out of those coins NOW..!! SELL...SELL..
These coins are uber inflated. For every ms70/pr70 coin that sold, it's counterpart ms69/pr69 coin sold for a fraction of the amount.

Now, saying that, why are these coins selling for so much? Well, first, its every Registry owner, who has to have it added to their SET. And then the ones who are to foolish with money who thinks they just gotta have it. (that could go for the registry people too).
But the difference between them and you is, they are completing their SET. If you don't have a completed series of coins in ms70, and you just have a few coins, well, it's not the same. Although, they are in deep trouble too, even deeper than you...
But they can afford to lose money, can you?

There is a day coming, and soon I think, when the ms70/pr70 coins are going to come down to a crashing halt. And I mean hard. I predict a 75% loss.

I could be wrong, but many of us here know, to never pay a huge premium for a ms70/pr70 coin. I would love to know what a dealer would pay for a ms70 2009 ASE.
I coulkd talk for weeks,months, but this has been going on for years..
And even doug said the 70's market is dropping...

I don't mind anyone buying them, I just don't want to see alot of people lose money on our hobby. But gambling is part of it, I guess..

So, when you see those prices falling, it is a serious downturn in our hobby, I do not think they will ever recover back to the prices they once were...

Anyone else agree? or am I missing something.

 

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i 've been saying for years now that these MS/PR 69-70 coins are garbage. dealers who sells these type of coins should be jailed.

nothing wrong with collecting modern coins just don't pay a premium for em.

 

I agree

 

Reminds me of when I collected baseball cards in the nineties. People would buy pack after pack, box after box, case after case to get that rare "Special Card" that was worth hundreds of dollars. After a while you'd break down and spend that much and buy one from a dealer. These cards were advertised one per case--one per five cases, then you'd look at the high priced dealers in the price guides (just like the coin magazines), and they're selling the cards in hundred lots.

Stick with the 69 grades if that's what you want. Like you said, they are a fraction of what the seventies go for, and they're as close to a seventy as you're going to get. I've bought 69 ASEs and modern commemorative dollars for the same price as raw ones.

 

Reminds me of when About Good started trouble a day or so about another:

"The sky is falling" with toned coins.

See: http://www.cointalk.com/t124256/

As for me, I'm not a 70 guy but I wouldn't turn it down for 69 money

 

you have a better chance of hitting the lottery then finding that dealer. this is a one way street...only sellers and no buyers.

 

This has already started to happen to some degree. Whether there will be a crash as you predict, who knows? If that does happen though, I can see many unhappy people perhaps leaving the hobby and also the TPGs losing a lot of money (and credibility). It also may impact the grading system. MS70/PF70 moderns are not my focus of collecting, but my guess is that this will not be a crash but more of a gradual decline over time. Beyond the registry set folks, there will always be some people who want that special coin in perfect condition. IMO, investing in these coins is not a good idea. TC

 

Does anyone remember tulip bulbs?

research that.

 

I've have 69s that I can see no problems on and 70s with minor flaws...

 

When I first joined this forum earlier this year, there were some who were extolling the virtues of buying 70's, and I said then that the only way you stand a chance of making money on them is if you submit them yourself and sell them as quickly as possible. I added that if you can't tell the difference between a 69 and a 70, you should be buying the 69's because you could get several for about the same cost as one 70.

I've got news for some of you. The sky has been falling for a few years. It's just that no one but the well-informed collectors paid any attention. Just call me Chicken Little.

Chris

 

Unlike your thread about toned coins, I totally agree with you on this one.

 

I don't see this as a downturn at all. The vast majority of collectors never bought into the modern MS-70 hype to begin with, so really the only people effected are those involved in registry building, which has very little, if any impact on the rest of us. To me it's a good thing, as it's a sign prices are beginning to reflect reality.
Guy

 

I remember the tulip bulb fiasco back when in the Netherlands. It was like a pop culture market that skyrocketed certain strains and colors to outrageous prices. I think it was a jet black bulb that was worth the most, some insane amount even in this time. But within a few months the bulbs got some kind of parasite or mutation that changed the plants image, and the bottom dropped out of the market and a tulip bulb was worth the same as a potato.

Please don't quote me on this, I was just pulling information out of my head.

 

Other than Doug I doubt if anyone remembers about the Tulip bulb (he was there LOL)

 

Ahhh. Spoken like a fellow thats never had a modern graded and lucked out with a MS/PR70 or two.

So tell me, should MS/PR70 coins simply NOT be sold?

 

I have only two left in my collection and both came from one of my submissions. They are the 2005-S KS Silver SQ in NGC PF70UCAM Mint Error and an 2005-S OR Silver SQ in NGC PF70UCAM from the same submission. Of course, I don't plan on selling the KS Error unless I get an offer I can't refuse, but I've seen dealers advertising the OR SQ in PF70 for $300+. Heck, I'd be happy to get $200 for that one.

Chris

 

I agree with buying 69,s and that the prices of 70,s will fall but I think there will always be a market for them at a premium. I believe that premium will slowly come to a substainable rate that is not so insane as the current market for them is. I stay away unless its a super deal simply because I can,t grade MS65 and up in regards to there differences.

 

One of these days I'm going to blow the lid off of taping & flowing in the dry wall business.

 

I love 16th century Dutch history.