Questions about investing...

Doug,

In this particular case, Everlor is correct. Furthermore, you have no chance at making money playing craps in the long run. There is no way (other than cheating) to overcome the house edge. In the coin business, with the requisite knowledge, it is possible to make money. Therefore, you are better off investing in coins given the two options.

If you are going to suggest that a potential coin investor would be better off gambling their money in a casino, at least point them to a game that has no house advantage. Send them to play poker. It is very possible to overcome the house rake. The only real problem is to figure out how to beat guys like me.

Given the fact that I use my poker winnings to support my coin addiction, I think I am proof of your original point.

 

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I have paid my rent with my poker winnings many times. I have lost the rent money playing poker many more!

 

I know this is not the place, but do you care to explain that comment. After all, if what you are saying is true, and it gets out, I am out of a job.

 

Yes, please explain. I am only a few hours away from Atlantic City. I would love to learn how to have a "98.5% chance of winning." Early retirement, here I come!

 

You could always PM me!

 

Origional Post:

New Topic:

How to have a "98.5% chance of winning" at craps.


I think we got a bit off topic!

 

Coins are a very difficult investment. Even if you buy some coins and turn them around for more than you paid and have a profit to show, ask your self... first take away the cost of gas to go get the coins, multiply the hours spent looking for the coins times what ever hourly wage you feel your worth (at least minimum wage), and subtract any cost that it took to sell it (i.e. auction costs, shipping costs, time you spent trying to sell it multiplied by your self worth wage) and subtract all that from your profit number and see if your still in the profit margin. Than also look at it that if you just went and got a part time job, how much would you have been paid for all those hours spent and see which is worth more

 

I'm dying to make a comment on craps and gambling theory, but I will refrain since it is off topic

I think when looking at 'investing' you also have to look at the actual utilty value of the hobby as well. If you enjoy collecting coins and you aren't just buying coins with the intent to sell them at profit you have a built in amount of utlity or enjoyment from those coins. If you buy a coin today for $45 and enjoy it, keep it in your collection, study it, and then decide to sell it in 2 years, you may get your $45 back. You may get less, may get more, but for two years you enjoyed your purchase (investment) and when it comes time to sell, you still stand a shot at making a profit or breaking even.

I can't think of too many forms of entertainment where after you're done you can get your money back, or more coins may not be a great investment per se unless you can buy wholesale and sell retail, but it's a great hobby tht tends to hold value over time.

Happy collecting/investing

 

I have 2 questions:

1. Is there any well known craps people that have made a living (without cheating) in craps?

2. Is there any well known Coin people that have made a living in coins?

 

John Scarne is reported to have made a lot more playing craps than he lost, but it was not a 'living.' considering that to make a living playing craps one would have to bet millions of hands over a lifetime to do such a feat, mathematically it isn't possible. You can easily beat craps in the short-run. The problem is when all the short-runs add up to the long run and you hit the wall of statistics and you lose. The more one plays the more likely one is run into the enivitability of losing.

As a side note, the doctorate mathemtics and game theory department at Brown has a standing $1 mil and honorary doctorate in math for anyone who can overcome the mathematical advantage in any casino over the long run (defined as 10 million plays). Over 10,000 people have submitted theories and systems, none have made it past a test of 50,000 plays. Way short of the 10M mark. Doug if you can beat the house edge, you Should give them a call.

 

Actually, the biggest downfall with coins as an investment is the emotional attachment many feel for their coins. Like any business, if you're going to look at it that way, you cannot have an emotional attachment to your inventory. As I see it, most if not all collecters have an emotional attachment and therefore are unwilling to sell what could make it an investment. In most cases with coin collectors they collect them because they like the look or the story or the whatever. If you're really going to look at them as an investment only, you can, but forget about the emotional attachment of how hard you looked and how many you passed up to get this one, because you'll never get over the attachment.

Honestly, if you are looking at coins as an investment, you might want to think long term, and in many cases, very long term. As another option you could look at bullion or junk silver, there are less variables with bullion, as the one underlying constant is spot market. Numismatics has many more variables that will have you tearing your hair out, if you have any.

 

There are silver art bars that I have in my collection that I could sell for a profit on ebay right now if I wanted to BUT I did not do that because I consider my silver art bars as something that I love to collect and it makes me happy. My silver art bars are not an investment. I do NOT consider my silver art bars as an investment because I have an emotional attachment to them and I love the silver art bars that I have finally found. I could not get over that emotional attachment on the silver art bars that I have and it took me a while to find a lot of those silver art bars at the right price. There is no way that I will sell those.

I will also admit that in the past that there were silver art bars that I have sold because these were either 1.) Impulsive buys or 2.) Certain duplicate silver art bars that I really did not want. All I did was use the sale proceeds to buy the silver art bars that I truly wanted and researched. I now have a silver art bar "wish list" that will help me buy the silver art bars that I like to add to my silver art bar collection. All of the silver art bars that are in my current collection I have an strong emotional attachment to them.

I am a collector and that is all I will ever be when it comes silver art bar buying. Collectors, such as myself, get emotionally attached to their collections.

As PeacePeople said, Investors cannot cannot get emotionally attached to their investments.

 

Doug is right! There are ways to beat the house without cheating, and many people have been blacklisted from all of the casinos for it.

Systems were developed for both craps and blackjack, and both were televised on one of the educational channels (can't remember which one). In both instances, when the casinos finally figured out how they were doing it, all of the members of each group were banned, not only in Nevada, but in casinos throughout the country.

Chris

 

Well put.