Four beautiful "liberty" presidential gold spouses.

Yeah...but <3000 :hail:!!! It's "free money"!!! (Dr. Jeckel)

...assuming they don't pull any shananigans...like selling off the leftovers 4-5 years from now. There's nothing in the legislation that prevents them from doing that!!! :whistle:...and I can't get them to say they won't. :kewl:

You ever notice that they're careful to print the "Mint Sales" figures and NOT the "mintage" figures? It would be incredibly dishonest/unethical for them to do as I describe...but do you trust them? (Mr. Hyde)

The First Spouse series has me going crazy!! :goofer::computer::crying:

 

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"You ever notice that they're careful to print the "Mint Sales" figures and NOT the "mintage" figures?"

YES! This is why I warn against playing the mintage game, especially in regards to Elaine's faith and dependence in those numbers and her speculations on what to buy. I have a big problem with the Mint's business ethics in these matters, especially since they could potentially be directly harming the very customer base they entirely depend upon for collector versions.

 

I think the Mint sees the "Collector" much the same way a Pusher sees a "Crack Addict".

...he'll be back.

 

Definitely! and if they don't get you themselves their street dealers with get you hooked in a coin shop or regional show!

 

Of course, like any good SW Engineer, my thinking comes back to one central point...testing the extremes. In other words, define the extreme outcome (both pro and con) and determine which presents the greatest risk.

Scenario #1 (negative): The Mint is completely dishonest and they will keep releasing these FS coins via surreptitious channels through 2015; distorting the final mintage numbers and making them only worth bullion. This assumes the published gold content is accurate and bullion doesn't fall to zero.

Outcome #1 (negative): The coins won't be worth more than bullion in our lifetimes and a drop in bullion prices to $600/oz would represent a 70% loss in the short term (bullion + premium).

Scenario #2 (Positive): The Mint is completely honest and after each design goes "off sale" from the Mint, the dies are destroyed and excess coins are melted. The "sales" numbers actually ARE the mintage numbers.

Outcome #2 (positive): Economic circumstances keep mintages for the 2009/2010 coins at severly depressed levels. An improving economy in the out-years, coupled with greater popularity for the modern First Spouses and increased series popularity after the series ends...all combine to produce a much wider collector base. The widened collector base produces realized auction prices for the "low mintage" 2009/2010 coins into the $10,000-$20,000 range.

So...let's evaluate....

Outcome #1 may offer a short-intermediate loss of as much as 70% (which can be writen off against a taxible gain) or kept as part of a balanced investment portfolio.

Outcome #2 offers nearly limitless upside potential...much like the Unc (MS64FB) 1916d Mercury dime I purchased in 1972 for $800...with money I saved from my paper route.

The likely outcome will fall somewhere in between. Since the benefits of the positive outcome far outweigh the liabilities of the negative outcome, I would tend to make my purchases based on Outcome #2...which is why I'm still a First Spouse collector. (plus, I collect coins for the challenge and let "Divine Providence" determine what my profit should be!)

 

Speaking of which...are you coming to Baltimore next month? I wouldn't mind letting you buy me lunch if you were.

 

One other aspect of collecting, apart from buying these coins for potential investment, that falls outside your most reasoned and logical insights above are the wholly subjective decisions each collector must decide for themselves, are they aesthetically appealing to me and my collection?, to other collectors? and are they capable of driving future demand due to such eye appeal?


Baltimore: At this time, I have no plans to be there and am yet undecided.

 

True, true...those are all the intangibles that go into making up the "Collector Base"...and no one knows what that might be years down the road. I'm just saying that the "potential" is there. Worst case scenario...First Spouse collectors are left with a hunk of pure gold.

Which, when you think of it, is what the normal bullion investor is left with, too. So the "true" downside of First Spouse coins (as compared to the normal Bullion coins) is the premium the Mint charges above the Bullion prices.

Baltimore: I would think the prospect of "Lunch with Yakpoo" would seal the deal! :high5:

 

Is that Mr Hyde speaking again...?

 

If Elaine was gonna be at the show, you would be in the first train down here!! :hail:

 

Oh no I wouldn't, she wants ME to buy lunch! LOL!

 

LOL...so do I!!! (Mr. MoneyBags)

 

MoneyBags... I wish! If I had the excess dough I'd certainly buy into the FS coins much more readily than I currently resist them.

 

The "word on the street" is that you don't even go to work...you just sit around the house all day managing your vast empire...and providing community service on Coin Talk. (geeze! ...nice work if you can get it!)

 

keep some money for the coming buchanan's liberty gold.

 

Uh oh! Elaine's in the house.

 

THat pretty much sums up Krispy! LOL!

 

the last eight days should add some 1,000 pieces each of the first spouses (letitia and julie) 1/2 oz. gold.

 

Now THAT's a bold prediction!! :thumb:

Krispy? ...comments?

 

That's Mrs. Hyde speaking.