Auction Frustration---Crazy Bidders!

The 2010 April-May Milwaukee CSNS Heritage Coin auction has been open for bidding for a few weeks. I found a coin that I really wanted for my PCGS registry collection. The coin is a fantastically toned 1943-D PCGS MS67 FS Jefferson Nickel. Here is a photo of the coin.



Now as many of you know, I am not a stranger to paying huge premiums for monster toned coins. This coin was going to be no exception. I did my research and found that very few 1943-D Jeffersons have dramatic rainbow toning. Further investigation revealed that this same coin was sold by Heritage for $718.75 in the 2004 CSNS sale (see auction link below).

1943-D Jefferson Nickel PCGS MS67 FS 1st Sale

I knew with the improved photo and the added popularity of rainbow toned coins that I was not going to get the coin for that price and would have to go higher. The PCGS price guide on the coin is $150. I decided that the coin will probably go for about 5-7X PCGS price guide so I bid on the high end just surpassing the 7X mark with a bid of $925 ($1,063.75 w/ BP). I checked the auction last night and I was the high bidder by a comfortable margin at $650. When I came home from work tonight, I checked the auction again and to my complete and utter dismay, I found that not only had I been outbid, but my bid had been destroyed. It pains me to even type the price of this coin. Please click the link if you want to know.

1943-D Jefferson Nickel PCGS MS67 FS Current Sale

Is there any possibility that the PCGS + designation is influencing the price of this coin? Is it just two crazy PCGS registry collectors? Every time I bid on a PCGS coin, it just goes insane. I am on coin collecting tilt! I feel like Phil Helmuth, "what the heck is going on here".

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

With a few hundred available in that grade, it's not just the average registry collector needed that one for their set. Similarly, I don't think it has anything to do with someone thinking it could be a "+" coin. To me, it seems that a few others had done the same research as you did and knew that this was a tough date to find with monster toning. Unlike you though, they were obviously willing to go well beyond 7x PCGS Guide prices.

I really don't know all of the ins and outs of the market for toned coins, but I think that it seems really conservative of you to think that the price of the coin would only be a couple hundred higher than the price 6 years ago, given how much prices of toned coins have exploded since then.

I got outbid on everything I bid on tonight as well. I wasn't bidding too strongly on anything though, but I figured I'd hit at least a couple of deals. Oh well... still a few days of coins left

 

That bid was the second most aggressive bid I have ever placed on an easily obtainable Jefferson Nickel. The only common Jefferson I have paid more than $1,000 for was my 1944-D which I purchased from a retail dealer of toned coins and the coin in question was an Appalachian (see photo).



The current bid of the 1943-D is absolute moon money IMO and there really is nowhere to go but down. Lets face it, the price of a 1943-D isn't going to rise considering there are over 375 of them graded in MS67 FS.

I am still on tilt!

 

I feel your pain. Its tough when you are chasing the same things everybody else is. Its collector demand that took the coin from $.05 to 718.75 back in 04. Its the matrix of coin collecting. In 6 years 2200 will seem like 700 and it might not stop there this weekend.

In 06 I boughht a killer 14 D Lincoln cent and my wife wigged. But after a year went by and she saw where the price had already jumped she said "can we do that again?"

Or go poor man and buy that 150.00 Jefferson in 67 blast white, crack it out, put it in a whitman, leave it in a freashly stained rolltop desk and wait a few years. Interesting post, thanks

 

The toning is amazing

 

At that money they have blown by the moon, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. You know the next one they pulled it out of....

 

Wow heavy bidding there.
I'd think it's a couple of registry bidders bidding it out.
Or someone that knows they can sell it to you
It is a great Jefferson though.

And I think it's not the first time you've been on tilt...lol

 

Anyone have a feeling for how long rainbow toning has been a significant market factor?
In other words when did it REALLY catch on?

Part of my problem with rainbow toned coins is the concern as to whether it is a fad or not.
After thinking about it for a while I've decided it is NOT a fad and will continue to grow (if that's possible) as an important factor.
Why?
1. The people who like blast white older coins are mostly the older collectors like me. And of course we are the ones disappearing from collecting (filling the 6' hole).
2. The younger collectors are mostly the ones that are on (or getting on) the NT bandwagon because most of the info they encounter about color/toning/patina is about rainbow toned coins. When was the last time you encountered an article about blast white surfaces?

The Fly in the Ointment: AT
Just like the Chinese (or other counterfeiters) are getting better at what they do so will the AT'er.
That could kill the goose.

 

I am not sure what you mean. What advertising?

 

I used to do that on the sportscards forums. basically he feels you shouldnt post the link to the auction until its over.Alot of people on the forum that do not say a thing but are here watching.But quite honestly I know how hard it is to not share a coin you are really excited about

 

I think he means over the years you have made such a hype about toned coins, (Made me more interested, might I add) that it is now catching up to you and there are more collectors collecting toned coins. I know the price of a few coins I bid on has went up because of your "toned" influence on me.

 

That is exactly what I was reading into GDJMSP's comments.

 

Maybe its wise to not put a microscope on the things we are collecting untill we feel we have enough. Then talk it up and watch the investment grow. I understand the moon money comment, but I still say todays price is quickly yesterdays and will look like a bargain soon. Its often that trend with most antiques, guns and collectables. Waiting sometimes can cost more in the long run.

 

Are you guys saying that my chat room posts have somehow strengthened the toned coin market. While it is flattering to think I could have that kind of impact, I highly doubt that anything I have posted on the coin forums over the years has affected market prices.

I will admit that I have posted threads during the last few years which were in economic recession that showed that the rainbow toned coin market was still doing very well. However, that was not meant to hype those coins, rather to point out that coins with exceptional eye appeal will perform well in good times and bad.

 

I do think you had an impact on the market.
These are read by a lot of people and those people talk to ones who are not on the forums.
Sometimes it doesn't take much to start a trend espically in a smaller market like high grade Jeffereson's that are nicely toned
Plus you have talked about them quite a bit and for quite awhile.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that you had influenced the market to a small degree, Paul, but the toned market is larger than just these boards. You've got a case of two people wanting that coin like crazy. When it comes time to resell, that coin will not get anywhere near that high - you've seen it before and posted the deals you've gotten.

The bidding on that one went outta this world!

 

I'm guessing the market for ducats is considerably smaller than the market for 1.) PCGS top pop coins 2.) toned coins 3.) nice Jeffersons. Getting 3 or 4 people interested in ducats could cause demand to increase significantly. It would take a considerable number of people to increase the demand for any of the three categories above.

 

I do think us small time collectors can influence a market for certain coins. Remember all that you need to do is get a couple of folks interested in a new area and they will then compete against one another and yourself for the same coins, driving prices up. That's why I usually keep quiet about new sets I'm building

For example, I didn't reveal that I was building my 1908-S IHC Grading set until it was almost complete. After I revealed the set, prices started to go up on the 1908-S IHC quite substantially. I don't claim that the run up was caused solely by me and my set, but I think it made a difference as since that time I know of at least two other collectors who are building their own 1908-S IHC grading sets and I know they have paid way over the current market prices for certain examples that they needed for their sets. When dealers see this crazy money being paid on a few examples, I think that gives them support to jack up their prices on all examples in their inventory.