When did the Sheldon Scale become the official industry standard?

I'm about 90% done with the article relating grade and market pricing. But then you are aware of the old dictum: the first 90% of the job takes 90% of the time/money/manpower. The final 10% takes another 90% of the time/money/manpower:headbang:.

I expect to finish the article in the next month or so and submit it to the Numismatist. My fear is that it will be too scholarly as it is based on a lot of statistical analysis of pricing over the last 30 years.

I took the price for all 95 separate copper and silver type coins listed in the Red Book and summed up their listed values for each grade. This 95-coin set can be thought of as a portfolio or an index fund. Because of their relatively high prices, I did not include the 1793 Chain Cent, the 1796 quarter and the 1796-97 Bust Half dollar. These three account for 60-75% of the total valuation of all US coins in lower (G and VG) grades. Even in the higher grades (e.g., MS-60), they account for half the total valuation. I also did not include any clad (post-1964) coins.

I will give two of the observations regarding the price of type coinage:secret::
1) the cost, as you jump up in grade, is a relatively constant percentage.
2) An argument can be made for considering MS-64 as a separate (full) grade.

 

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Scholarly is good. I'm FRNS, so I'm pretty hardcore.... Man.... :kewl:
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True, but trying to come up with real standards for eleven different levels of a grade whose major distiction it that it has no wear. The only thing s you can use to try and establish standards for those eleven levels (eighteen now that we have the Plus) is by quality of strike and the number, size, and placement of contact marks. I see no way to quantify marks since they can come in any size, or number and their placement on the coin also affects the grade as well and then if you could develop standards for marks you can then have all different levels of sharpness of strike for all those mark standards. I just don't see how you can actually write out distinct standards for the VERY subjective determination of the eleven (eighteen) levels of MS.

Are the percentages in the early years roughly the same as the percentages in the late years? I ask because this is what tripped up Sheldon. Over a 25 to 30 year period he found that the percentage between held constant and he thought he had discovered a way to establish the prices of early large cents. All you had to do was determine the price for the lowest grade and the percentages would take care of pricing all the rest of the grades. The problem was that later as collecting became more popular the growing number of collectors naturally chased the better grades more heavily than the lower grades. The extra demand for the smaller population of better grade coins caused them to rise in price faster and it screwed up the percentages.

 

I finally finished the article "Price Trends of U.S. Coins". It has been accepted, but not in the ANA's Numismatist. Instead, it is to be published in The American Numismatic Society's American Journal of Numismatics later this year. When it appears, I will post the issue and page number.

The interesting thing that I discovered is that the price for the 85-coin set in an arbitrary grade goes up 75% each time you increase the grade. e.g., if the 85 coins, each in EF-40, cost a total of $55,000, the price for the same 85 coins in AU-50 should cost ~$96,000.