Some interesting news showed up in my inbox today: CAC Launching "Traditional" Grading Service News Story click here Of all the NOT PCGS / NGC grading services, I think CAC actually has a shot to turn the big-2 into the big-3. I expect CAC to overtake ANACS. Interesting times, and not something that I personally expected to see prior to this announcement. I will assume Doug saw this is his Palantiri Seeing stone many years ago.
There's likely some significance in it being located in VA Beach when you consider what else is there and who part owner of such entity is which could be where the funding is coming from. I doubt they're going to overtake PCGS or NGC. There's still a ton of questions about pricing, what they will do etc. Its going to be US only for quite a while which makes sense, but does that mean all US including moderns or just what they currently do? A large portion of PCGS/NGC business is moderns and world coins Part of the significance of the sticker was having two separate companies agreeing, but them grading themselves turns it back into one. It also means a lot more than 3 graders and JA will still be in NJ most of the time according to their email. It is a strange move given the position they were in as I doubt very many stickered coins will be getting sent there, but if it can put some pressure on keeping fees down and speeding up turnaround times then its a positive. Time will tell
They're still going to. By their own words they may keep doing it for another decade or longer depending on the demand. A lot can obviously change in a decade, but they're presenting it in a way that they dont really want to be a big high volume operation. If that really is the case we will see how long the investors are fine with that given that PCGS and NGC make most of their money off of modern volume and the increased demand for world coins, not off of high end classics that come around every now and then
They'll probably do well enough, as they already have a reputation. The only question is, who is going to pop up and start putting stickers on their slabs? But I think the only way to seriously threaten the hegemony of the Big Two would be to develop a grading process that eliminates human subjectivity to the degree possible. I'm talking about using 3D scans of coin features and comparison to standard models to determine quality of strike, extent of wear, scatches/dings, etc. Also, using light exposure and spectral analysis to determine surface color, quality, reflectivity, luster, and toning properties. Basically, you'd put the coin into a contraption, the automated analyses would be conducted and interpreted, and a computer would spit out a precise characterization of the coin. So long as grading involves people sitting around looking at coins through eye loops, then the result will always be opinion based and arguable. If an unbiased method could be developed to apply the exact same grading standards to every single coin every single time, then that would be more meaningful. About the only thing that might require human intervention would be something like "eye appeal" or whatever. But, once an AI were trained to determine what is appealing to the human eye, then even that could be automated!
Better yet once we train the AI to do everything we can just go ahead and automate everything eliminating the need for humans entirely
Once general AI takes hold, there probably won't be any efficient use for humans anymore. If all goes well, then our only purpose at that point will be to enjoy the leisure and abundance that is provided by our creations. Of course, lack of purpose or required effort might have unintended consequences and we'll all psychologically implode on ourselves. Guess we'll have to wait and see!
But we'll still have Hollywood celebrities showing us how to run our lives (the ones who aren't in rehab that week) won't we?
Society being influenced by celebrities is bad all around, but at least Hollywood types are required to be intelligent enough to memorize some lines! Worse yet are professional athletes. Why anybody would think that authority is warranted based on a person's ability to catch or throw a ball is beyond me.
I wonder if the new grading service will result not in grade inflation, but deflation. It seems CAC would grade on the conservative side, and perhaps that would push NGC and PCGS to do the same?
I could handle that; despite that I think a conservative grade would only be temporary. If they could get the 4 tpgs to follow then it would be a win, win.
Would it be a good thing though? Regardless of the criteria (% worn, scratches, etc) and terminology (F, XF, Unc, etc), wouldn't the best system be one where the standards were set and remained constant? Describing a grader's criteria as "liberal" or "conservative" just means that they are deviating from the standard in one direction of the other. If we reward companies for being more conservative, then the companies will be pushed to redefine the scales. Wouldn't it be better if the criteria remained the same? I understand why people would want their coins in holders from companies with a reputation for conservative grades. But overall, I think it would be better if everybody stuck to the original consensus. That way, we're all speaking the same language regardless of company or time.
They'll still be last. Probably no effect at all. I hope cac does varieties like anacs does. They seem to cover more of everything.I also hope pcgs turnaround time come down!
I believe the addition of CAC grading will not affect those TPG, as the industry generally is not concerned about grading, but other facets of those TPG. Wise individuals will do as I when finding a 2nd tier under-graded coin, submit it as raw to CAC for a believed proper grade. An example of current criticism of CAC is my linking/posting of requested 1908 NM MS66+ $20 coins with pricing, where I posted a CACed PCGS and an NGC MS66 specimen. The NGC specimen clearly met the 1977 copyright ANA standard for a MS65, thus: NO TRACE OF WEAR. HAS FULL MINT LUSTER. SURFACE IS USUALLY LIGHTLY MARRED BY MINOR BAG MARKS AND ABRASIONS. The NGC coin clearly exceeded the MS65 standard with even "cartwheel" luster, unblemished fields/devices. The PCGS coin is believed to not have met the MS60 standard, thus: Has full mint luster, but may lack brilliance. Surface is LIGHTLY marred by MINOR bag marks and abrasions. I believe that collectors forget that the current standard for CAC approval is believed to be that the coin meets or exceeds the PCGS average at the time of grading for that particular TYPE of coin. I believe a future CAC grading would meet a published standard, rather than a current "market" practice for a particular firm. JMHO
No doubt, if I wasn't playing fair I would elevate my grade to sell a product. You soon flood the market with over graded BS and it stalls. It is correcting itself, the lower tiers are gonna weather the change much better than the disruptors.