Are the collectors going to die off?

I had a morbid thought. I've been thinking more and more about the return on investment I've gotten with my collection. I'm pleased with the return, though the return is secondary....I like collecting aspect more. I'm consider plowing more money into it as an investment. But investing implies that there must be a future for the hobby and someone to sell coins to at the end of the road.

That all being said, I've been trying to figure out whether coin collecting is a growing hobby or a dying one. I used to be able to go to my local grocery store and find coin magazines, but that is no longer the case. When I do go to the local coin shops, I tend to be the youngest person there and I'm in my early 40's.

I think the State Quarters helped us quite a bit and so did changing the design on the cent. But is the age of the average collector still going up? If I buy some cool coins, what good is that going to do me when I want to sell them if most of the people that might have bought them are now collecting coins in heaven? Am I going to be left "holding the bag"?

Any thoughts on this?

Steve (who is full of questions today)

 

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I don't think the hobby is going to die off anytime soon. After all, it's been going strong for as long as man has minted coins. It seems to be slowing right now, but thats to be expected as on average 16% of Americans have lost their jobs and another 60% have been cut back on pay and time. That means a serious lack of disposable income and hobby buying power. Thats also why the housing, car and boat (just to name a few) markets are almost dead. The good thing about coins though is that the 10% who keep the market solvent in the hobby are often the same 10% who are immune to such economic tides, thus the hobby remains strong. When things pick up you'll start seeing more young people at shows and coin shops. Right now most of them are more concerned about paying the mortgage and putting food on the table to be bothered with coins.
Guy~

 

The best answer I can give you is that you might feel a little better if you looked at this poll http://www.cointalk.com/t86628/. I will leave you to do the interpretation.

 

I think the same thought has crossed the minds of collectors since the 1840"S when collecting US Coins had it's first growth. I tend to thing the majority will continue to rise very slowly over the decades, though probably a little slower than inflation. I do see a potential investment bubble bursting at some point as the ridiculous premiums for marginally better MS coins is replaced with the reality that anything can be,and usually is, overpriced at some point.

 

You are not the first to collect coins and neither was your father or grandfather but they all might have had the same question. The hobby will go on without you steve
Just as there are plenty of people dying there are tons of new ones comming into the hobby.
As for publications at stores...they are still at many Barnes and Nobles. But publishing has been having problems all over the board. You can get stuff online now...see where we are typing
So that is another moot point

Can't say if it's a good investment for you but can say that the hobby is not going the way of Beanie Baby's anytime soon.

 

If the trend I have been observing continues then yes I would say the collectors will eventually die out.

Over the past 38 years that I have been collecting, the average age of the collectors in the local clubs I belong to has increased. In 1975 it was 55 years. In 2008 it was 56 years. This is a full year of average age in only a 33 year period. If we take the assumption that when the average age reaches 80years we can assume that coin collecting has died out, then we will reach that point in only 792 years. Of course due to the rising overall population, even as the average age rises we should see the absolute number of collectors continuing to grow. (Demand would remain high but the turnover time for coins going into a collection and then coming back out as the collection is liquidated due to the demise of the owner would decrease.) And this does not take into account any unforeseen occurrences that might result in an increase in collecting among a younger age group which would delay the expected dying out in 2802

 

I've been warning about this for decades but most people don't take this very real threat to our hobby very seriously and a few even work to exacerbate the problems. In a nutshell the problem is that the hobby did a very poor job of attracting new collectors between 1965 and 1999 because most people get their start for circulating coinage and there was a perception that circulating coinage was dull and uninteresting during this long period. We simply lost a generation and a half of new collectors.

Now we're swimming in newbies and willbies but we're about to start shedding experienced and knowledgeable collectors in huge numbers. Historically most collectors sell off their collections when they retire and the oldest baby boomers have just started retiring. They're 64 years old now. Each year a large percentage of existing collectors are going to retire since a very large percentage of all collectors were born between 1946 and 1964.

We do have one thing working in our favor and that is that people are living longer now and in better health at retirement. This will probably translate into more collectors staying active in the hobby after retiremnent even if they aren't spending as much on coins. This will mean that at least the supply won't increase as rapidly and the interest and excitement of coin collecting can remain high.

Investing in collectibles is always risky because tastes change. It's can be especially risky to invest in anything where demographics or progress might work against you. Dot coms were on the right side of history and look what happened there.

Coin collecting will stay around for a long time and will likely be even more vibrant in twenty years than it is today. The question is what will things be like in between.

 

wouldn't you think this poll would be a little biased? I believe that younger people spend a lot more time on the internet and on forums. I haven't seen many 60+ people browsing online forums.

 

Yep that poll is on here so it is skewed.
And yes if you look real long term the hobby will not have that many people in it.
So when the government stops making physical cash and it's all digital money less and less will be out there to collect and one day it will all be for museums only. But that is along time away.

 

I think many people find their way to the hobby when they get into their 40s.
Like myself,i was 42 when i took up collecting,a result of more disposable income,free time,
and the desire to leave something of value when you go.
Younger folks are starting families,buying first homes,partying and paying off school loans.
Iv'e been collecting coins and currency for just over 10yrs now and have gained a great deal of satisfaction and knowledge watching my collection grow from a few coins to a
extensive collection.
My philosophy- I'd rather spend my money on a coin that will retain some value rather than spend it on a DVD that you watch one time and is then basically worthless or
on a $90 a month I-phone bill or fill in the blank.

 

Close but a little younger then that...LOL

 

I agree. I got into collecting from my grandfather at about 6years old but lost interests in my teens cause I got into comic books and trading cards. Boy was that bad. Ive thrown away tons of comics that have no value and ive sold tradings cards off on ebay and getting little back then what I paid. I got back into collecting close to a year now and havent been this happy since I was a kid. I have been able to sell the above and other collectables just so I can have some nice coins instead of cleaned/dinged coins my allowance as a kid could afford.

My friends and family think its a waste to spend money on old pieces of medal but they are the first to buy DVDs or PS3 games and after a few months at best its collecting dust and you cant even trade either in for $3 at a local video shop.

 

Will coin collecting as a hobby die out ?

No.

Coin collecting has been going on for thousands of years; the notion that it will suddenly die is as absurd as thinking a new Ice Age will destroy the Earth (which is the crap we were force fed in the 70s). Like many things, including the climate, it will have surges and waning periods. Personally, I think yet another surge is ahead of us.

Homo Sapiens has intrinsic insecurity and thus a hoarding instinct and an interest in money. It's easy to see why there are so many coin collectors.

 

We will of course see a decline in or for several years simply because of the state quarters.
Where is good there is always some bad and vice-versa. It was bound to happen.
State quarter rolls and boxes will be boat anchors and door stops for a time and that time may last 5 to 10 years.
There were so many sold and saved that there will be no, I repeat no added value on many tons of these, there's too many. Already we see moms and pops bringing them in and you all don't believe me when I say it but say I will it again. The going price for bulk rolls 95% of the time is $9.50 each. Dealers tell me they will be, and already are telling people they will charge that .50 cents a roll to haul them to the bank. Folks there's too many!

Just as this happens though other will drift in drift out and some will stay many will run - it's always been the truth has it not?
People love history and many new people will work thier way into truly rare coins. That is nothing after 1953 97% of the time except for die varieties and grade rarities that is a rare coin. The coins that are beautiful and classic and key dates will always be in demand - it's supply and demand and it really is very simple.
The very reason these will be valued is the same reason all this modern mint mass produced stuff won't be, again supply and demand.
This morning I still heard another person say something about the 1996-W dime bless his/her heart. I like the coin but again there's too many, way too many!
I do not know what the next "fad" will be, but I know what it won't be over the long run. All dealers here just about get sick when people bring in this junk like 2002 to date mint and proof sets. They are paying and I understand why 40% back of bid. No one wants it not one needs it it's just stuff, piles and piles and boxes and boxes.

You can argue your way around what I am saying or argue your way into what you perceive as being valuble but I'm just telling you what I see really going on around here. If it were not so why would dealars, many dealers take this same stuff and break it up for melt value with silver is only a bit higher than now?
And why would they in the same breath stop and show me one single 2x2 with a VG 1916-D in it and want me to see it because it's so original for the grade?

 

Not necessarily, grasshopper. You're talking to one now. A lot of the older collectors than I (in their 70s and 80s) maybe didn't grow up in the computer age, but I have used a computer daily since I got my first Apple IIe in 1984. And as you know there are LOT of us baby boomers around. I have three older sisters up to age 66 and every one of 'em is on Facebook.

 

I guess satootoko, Just Carl, Clinker and I don't qualify as people? And those are just from the leading posters.

 

There have been some good responses in this thread and I thank you all. I really liked the polling info, though there is a bias in the data because the respondents are internet users, which is more frequently youth. I did like the calculation of the average age in the club and how it changed over 33 years. Good stuff and it does settle my mind a bit.

I do agree, however, with what Cladking has said. As a collector during this era, lots of wierd stuff happened to me and others my age that did not foster collectorbase retention. I was outright accused of stealing a coin by a coin dealer, until he realized it was a previous purchase, for example. But my number one complaint during this time period is that it seems like some people would go out of their way to cheat a younger collector by over grading, selling cleaned coins, etc. just so they could make a buck. I'm not a dealer, but I do whatever I can to foster collecting by the young. I've given lectures to boyscouts, and given coins away. If I do work a trade or person to person sale with a younger collector, I always give a good deal. I think we all need to try to do this kind of thing. I humbly ask the dealers who read this to give some real thought to providing a discount to the younger collectors. Those young collectors grow up to be older collectors who have more money in their pockets to spend at your shop later in their lives. I've lived that experience personally.

We need more young collectors.

Steve

 

FORTRAN... COBAL... BASIC... Computer Punch Cards... TI 16... Atari... Comador 64

Some of us old codgers are pretty computer savvy... and then again...

 

Not to get off topic, but it was the older generation that invented these

 

watfor trash80 cupl (forerunner to basic) IBM 360-60