What Are Your Thoughts on Graded Ancient Coins?

Which is why I stick to the more reputable auction houses generally. They don't quibble about taking a coin back for a full refund.

 

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TPGs, or Third Party Grading services are just that, a neutral third party. They render an opinion on a coin with respect to surface preservation, authenticity, presence/absence of detracting defects, etc. I think this is a valuable service. It is exactly the same kind of service provided by a "trusted dealer" or by an agent representing you at auction. You can't always have your agent by your side at every buying opportunity, so a TPG is your next best thing.

I believe that agents, trusted dealers, and TPGs come in to play for more expensive coins. The definition of "more expensive" will vary from person to person. But if you are buying coins where the presence of a scratch, an edge defect, or some subtle graffiti won't hit you so hard in the pocketbook that it hurts, then you don't really need any of these third party opinions.

 

Well, I've never used an agent, but for sure I can see how for an extremely expensive coin an in-hand inspection is warranted, as well as the other advice an agent can provide.

I don't see how NGC's surfaces, strike etc grading compare. It seems 5/5 scores are handed out fairly liberally, such as this recent example of an owl that while nice certainly wasn't top tier and nonetheless got 5/5 grades.

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/the-slabbed-coin-market-for-ancient-coins-is-hot.388415/

It seems that any nuance of how nice or attractive the coin may be goes into the additional commentary ("choice", etc) that may be added, not the grades, but these appeal factors are things that you can anyways judge for yourself. If you are really concerned that a coin may have small surface scratches, then 5/5 surfaces isn't going to cut it - you either need to look at the photo/video, or have an in-hand inspection.

 

As a collector who always engages an agent to inspect coins prior to bidding on them and/or purchasing, I can verify that for the coins that I collect this statement isn't remotely accurate. Others on this site who use agents can provide their experience as well, but for me an experienced agent provides infinitely more useful information, analysis, and recommendations than a graded slab does. These two services are not comparable at all.

 

I've honestly never understood NGC's grading system for ancients. It certainly seems like they're trying to force a square peg onto a round hole.

The following are some of the things that IMHO are important for grading an ancient:
- Sharpness (are the details evident)
- Prominence (how far off the flan is the subject)
- Tone
- Luster (how shiny)
- Patina
- Centering
- Die quality
- Die beauty (not all engravers were equal)
- Cracks
- Graffitos (may be a plus)
- Countermarks
- Cuts
- Beauty in hand
- All of the above for reverse vs obverse
- How the above compare to others of the type

For the actual coin itself, there's:
- Rarity of the type
- Rarity of the mint/variant
- Collectability/history of the type
- Collectability/history of the mint/variant
- Size/weight vs the standard

Two little numbers aren't going to tell you all that. Even if you gave points for each category, you wouldn't be able to quantify one coin vs another because collectors value each category differently.

One thing collectors of modern coins can't seem to grasp about ancients is value is subjective.

 

It might be good to compare the coin situation to other professional opinions. When you go to a doctor who says you have a month to live, does he kill you in 30 days? When a person spends 50 years in jail for a crime he did not commit and is released after new evidence is found, does he get his life back? When you buy a property and someone later shows the seller had no good title are you glad you paid extra for title insurance? Opinions are just that. We could probably obtain something akin to title insurance protecting a buyer from TPG errors but how much additional would you be willing to pay for each 'guaranteed' opinion? That leaves the problem of having to prove that the latest opinion that a coin was fake was more valid that the earlier on that it was good. The only benefit to all this would be to the lawyers who get paid as much for being on the wrong side as being right. I value the opinion of the NGC graders. What I disparage is the way their slabs encourage the buying and selling of labeled plastic boxes between two parties that know absolutely nothing about the coins inside. I would prefer boxes that snap open and shut but I realize the need to prevent coins being removed and damaged before being replaced. Modern coins which exist by the thousands so identical that it is hard to tell them apart needed the sealed certainty of not being tampered with. Ancients are significantly more different one from another and make photo certificates more reasonable but that still leaves the possibility of damage after the TPG opinion had been rendered. I am really tired of hearing that NGC does not guarantee their work. This came up once previously in my experience. Eastman Kodak made film for cameras. If I bought a roll that was bad or lost in processing, their contractual guarantee limited their liability to the price paid for film and processing. If you took that film on your European vacation, they did not send you back for a reshoot. Perhaps it would be reasonable for NGC to be expected to return your $50 (or whatever you paid) but I suspect that a definite fake in a genuine NGC slab would sell as well as a genuine example of that type. One of us here on CT had such a fake coin in NGC slab. I sent them my Raw example of that fake in the belief that they were worth more as a set. I have forgotten who it was or if he is still with us but I hope he has kept the two together.


Currently, I own only one coin in a slab but it is by a worthless company that could not tell one son of Constantine from another let alone be trusted to authenticate a coin. I do not have a photo of the whole slab but this image shows the coin and the label rearranged. On several occasions I have been tempted to crack this out so I could examine the coin (which I believe to be genuine - just misidentified).


As a collector, I would enjoy owning a fake in NGC plastic and agree that NGC would be better off buying back their errors to put in their 'Black Museum'. I would be interested in knowing the exact number of such fakes that they have released but that is not a number I expect to be forthcoming.

 

Obviously TPGs don’t provide recommendations or market analysis. Suggesting they do so is foolish.

 

Seeing as I'm the one that pointed that out, I'll respond.

It's not that NGC in general doesn't guarantee their work, it's that NGC Ancients does not.

NGC seem to have built their reputation at least in part on providing money-back guarantees, both of authenticity and of grading. The name "Numismatic Guarantee Corp." reflects that.

The NGC Ancients guarantee is different, and spelled out on their web site:

https://www.ngccoin.com/specialty-services/ancient-coins/guarantee.aspx

To an extent NGC Ancients seems to be riding on the coattails of their established non-ancient slabbing business, and the faith that people rightfully have in the authenticity of an NGC slabbed coin. I'm not suggesting there is anything sub-par about NGC Ancients authentication - quite the opposite, although if I was in the market for authentication I'd much prefer a photo certificate with either David Vagi's or Barry Murphy's signature on it, rather than a generic slab that gives no indication of who's opinion it is.

It'd be interesting to know if NGC Ancients ever did consider a money-back guaranteed tier of service. Given that they obviously get it right the vast majority of the time, I'd have thought it'd be possible to self-insure and still make a profit. Maybe reject the occasional expensive coin where the insurance risk seems unreasonable.

 

How much would be fair to add on for self insurance when we consider that there are easily a million ancient coin variations as distinct as those recognized in US of which the vast majority have not been seen by any expert in the field? There are relatively few US coin types to learn and TPG graders have access to data files on almost all the types that they see. I suspect most specialist collections include coins never experienced by either of the graders with die variations that are a great deal more different than what we see from modern coins. I maintain that a fair insurance add on that would pay off a mistake, for example, on the Brutus aureus (even if it is a million to one chance of error) would price the fees high enough that customers would balk. It is bad enough now when we see $50 coins put in $50 holders and sold for $200. Self insurance is a fine thing as long as you have enough money to cover the losses in a worst case scenario. Had NGC ancients been around when the Black Sea Hoard surfaced, would they have slabbed them?

 

Let me clarify that I don't rely on my agents for a "market analysis" but rather for a detailed coin analysis -- something that a graded slab doesn't provide.

 

That is a "blast from the past" what ever happened with the Black Sea Hoard?

 

I'm not being facetious but how much does one have to pay an agent in addition to hammer + BP?

I've never used one but I'd imagine it is much more than what TPGs charge for grading a coin. I definitely feel a lot more comfortable bidding on a coin that has been examined by someone who probably has considerable more knowledge of ancient coins than many of the members here (infinitely more in my case), has examined the coin close up and feels it is worthy of being graded i.e. not an obvious fake.

For those who don't have sufficient knowledge of ancients, this is a very reassuring first step IMHO. Over a period of time and after discussing coins with the much more learned members of a chat group such as this, one learns to look at other aspects such as centering, sharpness of strike, rusted dies, fine style etc. etc.

TPG as a first step and one's own research and examining the coin in person or via high quality photos should give the average buyer sufficient confidence to make a reasonable decision.

Since I can't fly to auctions and examine coins in person, I tend to avoid auction houses that don't provide high quality photos because then YES, I'd be buying a plastic holder and not the coin itself.

 

I think this is spot on with respect to the authenticity question. FYI, PCGS charges a 1% Guarantee Fee for expensive US and World coins. That is 1% of the value as published in the PCGS Price Guide, I believe. I assume NGC does the same. So for US and World coins, very roughly speaking they can get Authenticity (or grade) wrong 1 time out of 100 and still be OK. I imagine for ancients, NGC decided the risk is higher than one in one hundred for the reasons stated in Doug’s post, so a formal We’ll Buy Your Coin guarantee wasn’t practical.

I do trust that NGC does not slab coins they believe are counterfeit or questionable. Maybe that is naive but I choose that approach.

 

These two posts might help:

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/an...hokles-tetradrachm.243930/page-2#post-1881134

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/an...hokles-tetradrachm.243930/page-2#post-1881262

 

It varies wildly based on the relationship between the two parties. It could be anything from a flat fee to a couple percentage points on the sale price.

That fee is for coins over $100,000. It's 300 plus 1 percent for those. Below that tier it’s all a flat fee that gets as low as $17 for moderns. NGC is the same way except theirs starts at 25k instead of 100k and is 350 plus 1 percent.

Now for ancients they have their own pricing structure which is significantly more expensive than the US or World coin fees.
https://www.ngccoin.com/submit/services-fees/ngc-ancients/