Draped Bust Survival Estimates

1. I decided to catch a long time itch to understand how many Draped Bust coins are still extant. So using PCGS Survival Estimates and US Mint figures, an estimated 152,155 Draped Bust Coins Survive or 0.63% of all Draped Busts minted. By material, they break down as
2. Gold 1.91%
3. Silver 1.94%
4. Copper 0.33%.

By denomination, they break down as

1. Half Cent: 0.26%
2. Large Cent: 0.34%
3. Half Dime: 1.98%
4. Dime: 0.95%
5. Quarter Dollar: 2.17%
6. Half Dollar: 0.91%
7. Dollar: 3.47%
8. Quarter-Eagle Gold: 5.25%
9. Half-Eagle Gold: 1.48%
10. Eagle Gold: 2.50%

So few of these babies left.

 

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The old time rule of thumb used to 1% on an overall basis. That number was raised if there were any known hoards.

I am surprised that the half cent number isn’t a little higher given the Chatman hoard of 1806 C-4 (Large 6 stems) half cents and an unnamed hoard of 1804 C-13 (plain 4, stemless) coins.

The other comment I will make is that I have found that the PCGS Coin Facts survival estimates to be on the low side. I base that on my observations concerning die variety rarity estimates.

 

I do know if you just search "draped bust" on eBay, the vast majority of what shows up is copper.

 

That is because the first mint made more copper coins, mostly large cents, than everything else.

 

Yes...makes one think that silver from this era may have some pretty good buys yet. But I suppose people have been saying that for many years.

 

I have been hooked on early U.S. coins for many years. I started buying seriously circa 1974. The 1805 dime, which is my avatar, was one of the first ones. I now have a lot of pieces in grades ranging from Fine 15 for a 1796 half dollar (a very tough and expensive coin) to a lone MS-64 1800 half dime. That was a “devine extravagance” which I could not pass up.

These coins are expensive in Choice VF and better, and the population of saviors is not large enough for the big dealers to promote. The prices have actually come down since 2012. The demand seems to have come down.

 

I picked one up last month for my type at a show. Its only a G-4 but it's still with us. 206,000 original mintage. If your numbers are close than roughly, less than 4500 of this 1806 remains in any condition. I'm happy to have this one.

 

Nice! Still pretty much have the rims there. I have three half dollar dates, but haven't bit the bullet for a quarter or dollar yet. Someday.