Well, since you mentioned A&C, I just won a lot from them. Estimate 350 Euros, I won it at 460. I consider that a bargain. I hardly find any bargains at Kunker, Heritage, Leu. Your mileage may vary.
Being deep into the ancient coin and crypto spaces in 2021, I find myself nodding in agreement at much of this thread. Much froth and dislocation of capital in all markets - though I still managed to score one of my all time favourite coins this year on the cheap and from CNG no less... Go figure. (Avatar pic)
This reminds me of all the ads I get offering to buy my used car or my house. They never mention that I could not afford to replace those items in the current market so I am not likely to sell. Perhaps this would be a good time to get out of the hobby completely but ...... I have not seen this. So many new collectors only seem interested in MS slabs that there are bargains in the VF presentable group. I have sold several coins through JA's sales but most that sold went for the opening bid. If people want to knock loose more and better coins, the bidding on what we used to call 'collector grade' coins has to pick up. I agree. Whether it is criminal laundering or just a sign that people have too much money and no vacation cruises to spend it on is hard to tell. Markets for anything rely on someone with money being willing to pay more than something is worth. Will the S_____ money get tired of coins and go away? Only time will tell. Not all owners of coins are in it for the profit. Judging from some of the garbage I have seen in some sales, attracting decent, mid-level material is getting harder. I'll sell the less desirable part of my collection but it does not seem right to sell the better ones in an environment when I can't find things I want to buy. Last week I sold three common Alexandria denarii (duplicates) for about what I paid for them but that was as a favor to an old friend. I would not have sent them packing otherwise.
I've been partially watching the auction yesterday and was blown away with hamer prices. I have two bids on lots at today auction and was already outbid (badly) before pre bidding has ended Either too poor or I don't want them that much : I can't decide Q
Those prices are crazy! I would guess what's happening is loads of "investors" are looking through all the rare coins and buying them up, hoping they'll hold their value. When a more common coin comes up (e.g. this nice condition but common antoninianus of Herennia Etruscilla: https://www.biddr.com/auctions/leu/browse?a=2016&l=2220724, or this very common coin of Licinius: https://www.biddr.com/auctions/leu/browse?a=2016&l=2220754) they think "wow, all these other coins are going for £10,000s, and this one is really cheap in comparison, so it must be worth it!"
I also had a look at the auction after reading this topic. Some might say that bottom feeders like me are not entitled to an opinion. This is partially correct. Usually my invoices have the value of one of the cheapest lots in this auction - because I prefer 7 coins, in lower grades but appealing for me for various reasons (personal importance, design, good enough condition...) rather than 1 coin in an excellent condition. I noticed a coin, one of the few I have it in my collection, in lower grade - that was probably sold for a decent price or, for me at least, not as surprising as other examples in this auction. lot 229 - 340 CHF + taxes. Mine, bought in February, for 70 EUR + taxes, is, no arguments here, inferior. Worn, cleaned too much, because of centering we cannot see the Minerva statue on the reverse. So clearly inferior and perhaps I even overpaid a little, who knows. Now, everybody thinks differently, but for me it's clear - if I spend ~400 EUR on an auction, like I usually do, I prefer getting a few similar coins to mine rather than just one. Of course, if we judge this hobby as an investment, this might be wrong. But for me it's the right choice as I don't buy coins with the intention of reselling. And again, I chose this example as it is one of the coins that didn't surprise me as much as others in regards to hammer price. In 2021 I have watched a lot of auctions (and NOT the houses where prices usually go up in the sky). Coins in average or below average conservation, without anything special, reached prices that I found simply spectacular and not in a good way. I just remember 2 coins I was 99% sure I will get with 50-60 EUR each. And this was not wishful thinking (in theory). 2 Trajan denarii, modest conditions, pretty common, they were interesting for me because they were related to Dacia. Hammer - 150 EUR for each of them. It was a shock because I studied the market for them before the action and there was no objective reason for those prices. Explanation - bidding wars. I also hit Bid a few times on one of the coins until I realized this is not a smart thing to do. I will not discuss money laundering as I have no proof of this, but I tend to agree with @dougsmit's opinion in regards to people not paying vacations/cruises as I know some modern coins collectors who bought a lot in the last 2 years because of this. In the end, I think it's simply down to what is the price a collector thinks is correct and the size of his/her pocket. I try to estimate a price as per my own standards. If I find that a coin's price, judging after past examples, would be 100 EUR, I will try to get it with 70. If I like/want the coin, I might go to 100. If I like it a lot and I really want it, I might go to 130. But I will not pay 250. For some collectors, paying 500 EUR or 1200 EUR is the same thing. For me, it's not.
There are various approaches to collecting. One is to "invest," with your goal being to make money, not for completeness or other traditional numismatic aim. To be successful in this endeavor, you need to know what you are doing. This involves having a lot of disposable income, a lot of patience, and a very good understanding of the coins you're buying and the market and more than a little luck. The smart investor can recognize when a coin is truly exceptional -- not simply in high grade and in a slab -- and when it is undervalued. I can't say that would have been the case for most of the material for sale at Leu. I predict that whoever paid 460 CHF (well over $500 after buyer's fees, currency exchange fees and shipping) for that Herennia Etruscilla will be sorry when he tries to sell it. Another way is the broad but shallow approach. There aim of this approach is to collect a wide array of coins without delving into a particular area. There are a couple strategies for the broad-but-shallow collector. One is to buy high-end coins infrequently, such as aiming to acquire a silver coin from each of the city states of Magna Graecia, or a denarius of each of the Twelve Caesars, or other similar assemblage. This is a popular way to collect and such collections often make a profit decades later when they are sold. Type collections such as this seem to be the modern trend, whether in ancient or modern numismatics. The advantage of this type of collecting is that one need not be concerned about completeness in terms of reverse types and can simply pick nice examples of each, the degree of "niceness" depending on one's budget. The disadvantage is that the budget-minded collector must wait long periods of time (months in some cases) between coin purchases while saving up for that coveted Caligula denarius. The other type of broad but shallow collector -- what I call "the magpie collector" -- likes frequenting low-end auctions and buying whatever strikes their fancy and then learning all about their new acquisitions. This is a very educational and entertaining way to collect, and such collectors often end up with an encyclopedic knowledge of ancient history, mythology, and art after only a few years of collecting. The disadvantage to this approach is that the coins have little resale value. The collectors I know don't care about this -- they're in it for the entertainment and figure it costs less than a night at the cinema watching the latest James Bond movie with a bucket of popcorn and a Coke in hand. A third way is the narrow but deep approach. The aim of this approach is to focus on something narrow, such as the coinage of a particular mint, such as Alexandria Troas or Viminacium, or a theme, such as astronomy/astrology or big cats, or a historical dynasty, such as the Flavians, or even a single historical personage, such as "Faustina II." For such collectors, completeness is the goal, with state of preservation a secondary concern. This approach was popular up until the mid 20th century, but less common nowadays, particularly with the modern demand for high-grade, slabbed material. The advantage of this type of collecting is that hundreds -- if not thousands -- of coins are available to the narrow but deep collector and such a collector can buy coins as often as the budget allows. Moreover, there truly are a number of very rare coins that one can buy for a low price if you know what to look for. There's a lot of pride of ownership when one comes across such a rarity -- that "Wow, I can't believe there are only four other known examples of this coin" or "this coin has never been reported in the numismatic literature" feeling. The problem with this approach is that the old saying "there is nothing more common in ancient numismatics than a rare coin" is true. You may have only the fourth known example of "this reverse type of emperor so-and-so with a draped and cuirassed bust seen from behind" variety, but the other two people in the world who care already have an example. Such coins can be hard to sell because collectors who will pay a premium for a flyspeck are few indeed, because nobody else shares your passion for them and your rare variety doesn't have the eye-appeal of a shiny, slabbed, common alternative. When it comes time to sell, the collector must have a collaborative relationship with a knowledgeable dealer who can market them, emphasizing their rarity and such to the proper customer base who might appreciate them. Now, there's some overlap in these approaches, and each of us probably have a mixture of all three approaches, but the mixture is unique to each collector and can change over time as the collector's interests evolve. At present, I'd say I'm 1/3 magpie collector and 2/3 specialized collector.
A new cruise itinerary is out for those wanting to pay for the privilege of 274 days of cabin life and endless buffets. Not for me, but I suspect the $121k per person price tag for the junior suites have already been snapped up. https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/10/22/royal-caribbean-ultimate-world-cruise/ The part of this weekend's Leu auction that's currently live is for a very specialized (and, at least for me, fascinating) group of coins. I didn't watch much of the action yesterday that prompted this thread, but I did win one coin today that in 2018 hammered for about twice what I'll be paying. So while I may be joining the stupid money buying coins right now, at least I'm only half the fool as the previous guy was, right? In any case, it's all good, I've never managed to convince anyone that I'm smart for investing in ancient coins anyway. Not even myself.
I agree with most of the sentiments here about Leu. Not sure about money laundering but I noted a certain Bidder 21 purchasing a lot of expensive gold. I had my eye on a couple of pieces yesterday and a few later today but I just cannot swallow the prices they are selling for especially my beloved Carthaginians. I do enjoy receiving their yellow jacketed auction catalogs. Seconds ago Bidder 21 bought a gold Dionysios for $75K. I thought initially Bidder 21 might be the house for coins not clearing the reserve by this is not true.
Today I learned that I am a magpie. Thanks, @Roman Collector ! Sorry, gotta go! I see something shiny over there!
I won a single lot but overpaid by about 25-30% in my opinion. The way I'm choosing to view auctions these days is that if we are in a bubble, I'll overpay for a handful of coins but still have at least a little fun collecting and then if things go back down then I'll be happy for the "lost value" of the coins I bought because I'll be able to acquire more and/or better coins at that point. If this is more of a long term trend than a bubble, then I'll have been glad I bought them when I did. I certainly regret not bidding higher on some coins last year. Either way, its a hobby and I'd like to try to enjoy it in some way so I'll try to find silver linings where I can.
First, while I believe money laundering does happen with coins (there was a discussion about a specific auction some time ago), I don't believe this is the case for Leu. They just attract a richer crowd - as do the other Swiss auction houses. IMHO perhaps the biggest long-term impact of the pandemic will be the tremendous wealth redistribution that happened as a result of it. While the poor took a big hit, those who were wealthy became far more so. The wealthy aren't to blame for this. They just knew a red carpet when they saw one. That being said, while ancient coin prices have definitely risen, I'm personally not discouraged. Yes, occasionally a coin I'm after goes sky high in an auction, but it's usually of the type where I'm confident another will come by. Several coins recently that I've been tracking (couldn't bid due to lack of funds) went for very reasonable prices. If you're after only the best condition coins, then you're kind of screwed in today's market. Those typically (but not always) receive very strong bids. I suspect it's because those coins are perceived to be the best investments. But for many other coins it seems that prices are still fair.
Prices have indeed been extremely strong - sometimes flatly irrational - but based on the fact that a number of collector friends have bought coins (including some of the flagship coins in the sale), it isn't a case of a single buyer snapping up everything as in the Sheikh days. That said, I haven't won anything in the Leu sale, although if I had pushed a bit harder, I feel as if I could have bought a few coins; they just weren't "must haves" for me. (And, to the concerns on money laundering: coins are simply nowhere near expensive enough to facilitate money laundering at the scale of the art market. Some of the Aureo lots were indeed absolutely absurd... maybe the buyer thought they were paying in Yen?) 21 is a dealer representing a number of clients and isn't a reserve. They have certainly paid a premium on some pieces...
I bid on a few but didn't win any. The prices were driven to nosebleed territory. That said, if coins were going for millions of dollars each then I would be more inclined to consider it money laundering.
One thing that may have helped the sky high prices in Aureo was that some, perhaps several of the RR lots had unlisted provenances. I only researched 5 lots and found 1930s provenances for two of them and a 1980s provenance for a third. There were many in the sale that had that "old collection" look and I suspect there were many more lost provenances in the sale for someone with more time and resources than I have to find. For what it's worth, I personally bid on and won one of the 1930s provenance coins I found at a high but not astronomical price, but I'll save it for its own thread once it arrives. I also passed a tip to a friend who then won the other since I knew I likely wouldn't be able to afford both. I didn't think either of us paid excessive prices but neither of our coins were bargains.
Just went through the sale and here's a handful of others than the one originally posted... someone really wanted these: https://www.biddr.com/auctions/aureocalico/browse?a=1997&l=2199469 https://www.biddr.com/auctions/aureocalico/browse?a=1997&l=2199462 https://www.biddr.com/auctions/aureocalico/browse?a=1997&l=2199466 https://www.biddr.com/auctions/aureocalico/browse?a=1997&l=2199463 https://www.biddr.com/auctions/aureocalico/browse?a=1997&l=2199465 https://www.biddr.com/auctions/aureocalico/browse?a=1997&l=2199375
