Will There Ever Be A Bubble?

A bubble doesn’t burst until it grows large enough to make it burst. This bubble is still growing.

 

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Hope it bursts. Maybe then I'll be able to afford a couple of the key dates I've been saving up for. With the current prices I'll just wait it out .

 

I was waiting for someone to mention the 'real' bubble.

 

I thought it was "Can't see the forest through the cheese!"......no wonder that didn't make sense!

 

Yes the bubble will burst. There a number of coins that are currently way over priced. The 1916-D Mercury in low grade is way over priced. I saw a AG going for $575.00 the other day. It shouldn't be over $400.00. Some other key date coins are already going in reverse right now. I figure we should see a slow decrease in prices on some coins next year. I think the biggest reversal will be coins in the super high grades. MS 66 and up. Modern high grade coins are definitely over priced.

 

did you miss 2007?

 

We examin one coin?

No - that shows nothing about the over all market.


Aside from that you REALLY can't really go by great collections prices. Show me the prices on Heritiage and I will believe that shows a market trend.

 

Personally the bubbles exist, however, long term they are meaningless, short term they can be very damaging, but in time bubbles burst and recover.

You really can't think of collecting as an investment, it's really not. it is a market though, and at times people will pay more to get what they want, and at times too many trying to sell all at once that crashes the price down. supply and demand. Some will use collectible coins as a hedge also which I don't really recommend unless you do it as a long term hold and can wait for the right opportunity to break even or profit, to sell. You have to be willing to sit and wait, maybe a long time even.

I mean lets take the 1909S VDB you could pick up a G4 in 1950 for around $5.in 1980 like $200. in 2008 you probably could have sold it for $900-$1000, and now somewhere around $600.

in todays dollars, the $5 of 1960 had buying power of about $50 today. the $200 of 1980 was like $600 today, the $900-$1000 was like $1100.00 and today $600 is $600.
In 1980-1990 you could buy it for like $600ish.

They rose in time, and there was a peak, and there will be other peaks, and lows, but that $600 coin today doesn't do much for someone holding it since 1980 and didn't sell in 2008, but it's decently stable to tie up cash against inflation. the prices will go up steadily as the dollar goes down along with everything else out there, we will have highs and lows along the way and even bubble bursts due to supply and demand and people needing to liquidate their holdings for cash again.

Figure if you tied up $600 on a G4 1909S VDB, in 30 years you could probably sell it for $1200-$1400 maybe more even, but that $1200-$1400 will have the buying power of the $600 you started with. maybe you turn a bit of profit.

You could buy a 1916D dime in 1950 in VG8 for about $6.50 (about $75.00 in buying power). today it would probably cost you $1600 or so. (in 1950 dollars that's about $150) the insane runups started mid 2000s I'm guess because of grading companies, online sellers ect. the ease for any jabronie looking for an "investment" to buy a coin, and it crashed some in 2008-2009, when those buyers needed to sell quick, but most coins have recovered since then. in the end though, mostly the increases are caused by inflation and buying power of the dollar, the rarity also has it's effect, to the demand, but even common coins have the inflation affect to it.
Your quarter could buy a pack baseball cards in 1980, a pack of gum in 2000s, and I can't think of a darn thing you can buy with it today by itself. So goes everything along with that. a pack of baseball cards in 2021, I got no idea? maybe $8+ now?

 

There was a big bubble in 1979-80. People thought they were getting great deals when they could buy somewhat scarce “investment coins” for “only” three or four times the Greysheet price.

Then poof! One dealer told me about an MS-66 grade he got on a coin. Then he watched the price melt before his eyes from a big gain to a kick in the pants.

 

Definitely with high grade modern coins.

 

are you sure of that? Just see what is happening with Jefferson Nickels and 1985 quarters.

 

Accept in the real world, the coin was robbed in 1999 and then you replaced it.