Some thoughts on the recent mint “instant rarities”

This year the mint has issued one limited mintage coin after another. They sell out in as little as ten minutes. Then the flippers make their money much to the consternation of collectors who were shut out.

With all of these “rarities,” does anyone think that the demand for these pieces will hold up years from now? If the mint keeps doing this year after year, will there ever be a saturation point? Will the resale market hold up or collapse?

What do you think?

 

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A low mintage does not translate into high prices. Look at the First Lady gold coins. Many of them have extremely low mintages, yet they sell for little more than melt.

That might change some day. British condor tokens used be the butt of numismatic jokes. Now they are popular. Still those pieces were “quiet” for 200 years. Most of us can’t wait that long.

 

The mint will keep doing what they are doing because it is instant profit. The coins will eventually end up at not much over melt. I consider them novelties that are promoted by carnival barkers. The same is true for those TPG coins certified as 'First Strike', 'First Release' and such. Collectors know what the 'coins' are worth and that's all they will be worth. Buy nothing from the US Mint as an investment.

 

This last year has really been on fire for these manufactured rarities. And I tend to fall asleep on the weekends with the History Channel on so I wake up Saturday and Sunday hearing Mike Meezak hawking all these things so the US Mint has a captivated audience through him and others convincing casual collectors that these things are the cats meow.

I see them same as I see my coins. I buy what appeals to me and do not expect a return on my investment. I went whole hog in when the Apollo coins came out and I bought a Peace dollar this year. And I rather suspect that when I sell my stuff five, ten or twenty years from now that it will sell around bullion prices.

 

Well the 2019 S Reverse Proof PF70 has taken a real nose dive in resell value vs. 2 years ago went from 10K to 2K and its mintage is only 30K almost that same as 1995 W.

Planned scarcity has it's drawbacks.

 

It's a very unique year with the two design changes which is also what is driving most of the demand getting the last of T1 and the first of T2 and then of course the Morgans. The hot products will be significantly reduced next year and the mintages on most of the gold stuff will be more than enough again as it becomes just the new design.

There really werent any manufactured rarities as the morgans/peace had high mintages, the RP set was a higher mintages than usual, the golds were normal, the proof/uncirc ASEs were pretty normal. The demand was just through the roof from the design change

 

It's always been a 2-3k coin, the ones that were getting above 5k where the ones with the signed COA which havent changed much

 

Popularity will always set the market price, not rarity and not a mintage total. A 1339 Ireland Half Penny, Edward III (One of two and the only in private hands) sold at the Whytes auction 4/26/2000 for 6,500 EUR. If another 1849 Double Eagle appeared outside the one at the Smithsonian would it sell for just under $10,000? Mintage, no matter how low, does not set the market price. It's merely an added factor based on popularity. So keeping with the subject, the exceedingly ridiculous prices only last until the popularity shifts to the next shiny object.

 

Quite a few of the items this year have not been low mintages (at least not compared to the final mintages of some items from prior years). The quick sell-outs are a combination of a few things:
~increased demand for some popular items (like @baseball21 mentioned the last year / first year of Silver Eagles and Morgans are some of the most collected US coins)

~more people getting into flipping (especially the buying clubs that go after anything from shoes to cards to coins)

~more people at home the last year and a half; this has led to more flipping (as mentioned above) and more chances to be sitting at your computer when something is released (as opposed to when many might have been at work and not able to step away to buy at the needed time)

~more money to spend on coins (people weren't going on as many vacations/eating out/etc)

~inflation: people parking their money into something that might be better than cash/savings accounts (maybe only a small percentage of people but could still be enough to make a difference)

 

My though on instant raritiys from the Mint is - 1908 Quater Eagle Gold.

https://www.usrarecoininvestments.com/coin_info/quarter_eagles/1908_quarter_eagle.htm

Better coin and they are a BARGAIN.

 

One only has to look at the 2001 American Buffalo commem.........high mintage, high popularity, and still high priced.

 

That's potentially the best comparison to the Morgans & Peace Dollar. Both are popular designs and the Buffalo is one of the few commems to hold it's value over the years.

 

I've been waiting 19 years for that thing to come back down to earth in price. I blew my chance to buy one directly from the mint.

 

My impression is that for every long-term winner, there's ten losers, with dealers at shows having stacks of them. As I've said before, I fail to understand why the US Mint thinks its mission statement is to create Beanie Babies. If they sell out quickly, your marketing worked - make more of them. The treasury benefits nothing from a frenzy in the secondary market.

 

I see no difference between the US Mint and any PRIVATE MINT Issue anymore. They are both tokens now.

The US Mint has lost it's way and is now just a manufacturing plant to supply a few insiders with stock to make profits off the gullible.

 

except the Mint doesn't make profits. It is a government agency. Any surplus of currency it generates ends up in the treasury. Government prints money - it doesn't earn it. When a government agency shows a surplus, it is a drag on the economy as it reduces money supply.

 

It's the insiders that make the premium, not the Gov't. It's NEVER the Gov't.

 

Same here; back then I was only collecting proof sets and didn't buy one. I've bought a few over the years since (sold some and then wanted it back, so bought again ).

 

As did I.