2021 Morgan Dollars

About .84 oz. of silver. so $107 an oz.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I agree with those who said the price was too high. I just wanted one piece for my collection and figured they will cost more on the secondary market so went for a lower price now

 

These are not bullion issues like the monster boxed ASEs. They are best classified as U.S. Mint commemoratives. I agree that they are overpriced but so are most other consumer goods and products. Nothing wrong with someone wanting to spend their own hard-earned money on something they want for their personal collection. TC

 

(This rant is not directed at you Conder.)

It blows me away that people on a coin collecting forum are still trying to figure out numismatic value. Nobody is expecting to buy them at melt value! The mint can't sell them at melt value. Why would they? Why does it even enter the conversation? Most collectors will not hold any of the 100th anniversary Morgans in the same regard as a dirty piece of bullion in a basket at a pawn shop. There's zero equivalent. That will never happen.
As fast as they sold out we're lucky they sold them this cheap as obviously people are willing to pay much more on the secondary market. The argument of price per oz. is the absolute dumbest argument concerning the sale of these. I didn't worry about what the melt value of my MS-65 1921-D was when I purchased it or most ANY other coin in my collection. In comparison, these are cheap.

Melt rarely is a factor in any of my purchasing decisions. Melt value doesn't even play a role in buying actual bullion products anymore! $25.69 right now. Unless you're looking to buy 1000 oz, you're not getting anything physical at that price. Closer to $35 for basic less popular stuff.

Lets say in another dimension, the mint wanted to be generous and sell them at $30 a piece. A little over melt. You would have had 10 million people crashing the site and they would not have made a profit or even recouped the costs of producing them. Not doable at all. $40 was not doable. Or $50 or $60.

The cheapest 1 oz silver they currently have on the site are presidential medals which are $65 a piece (and not that popular.) So they were never going to sell the Morgans for $65 knowing their popularity. The $85 asking price sold them all out in under 30 minutes so, they're probably regretting not pricing them higher. I wish they would have been cheaper too but this is the World we live in now.

The new quarter oz AGEs were priced almost $300 over melt. At some point yeah, I think there is price gouging going on but people pay it and everything sells out.

 

Thank you for saying this!

I’ve been wondering all day about why they charged me the full $514.95 this time but only $4.95 for the CC & O which was for shipping.

 

YES. My co-worker had to hold a button down long enough for the bar to fill up. First time I ever saw that!

 

Less than an oz of silver. Its a commerative planchet.

 

Yeah. No. The secondary market is what it is because of flippers and speculators, not because of collectors. This collector isn't buying them and I know many collectors that aren't buying them also. They are overpriced from the mint and they are even more overpriced on the secondary market. Some folks will want them to collect them but I think most folks won't in the long run.
however until people get them in hand and buyers remorse sets in and they start thinking they could have an actual Morgan dollar for what they spent, its going to be a flipper and speculator market.

So we will see I suppose. We will see.
My opinion its a hot potato and it will be a loser in the long run that people will struggle to sell for more than melt

 

Sounds like wishful thinking to me. You would have to believe there are not 175k people in the world that would like to have a set of each. Truth be told there’s probably that many in Canada. In reality they will never be dispersed evenly to everyone that wants one. Im keeping two sets for myself. At the least. I won’t disagree many people bought to keep a set and sell the rest. We’ll see how desperate people are to sell them. You won’t see mine for sale at melt. Lol

 

While I understand your POV, when I was younger, 50-60 years ago, the same thought was prevalent concerning collecting Hummels. They go up, they go down.

 

Its not really wishful thinking. I have no interest in them at all although I would take them at bullion prices like I would any other silver coin if it came up. But we will see after october when they are finally in hand and the collectors actually have them to see what the market is at. until then its all speculation on a product nobody even has.

I have been wrong before but most people I talked to bought them to make money off of them by selling them to someone else, not for themselves. Most of the ones selling now are people speculating its going to be a hot item and stocking up to make some money flipping them. the dealers are only going to pay so much on the secondary market before that dries up, and that leave collectors.... I still don't see them as "part" of the Morgan or peace dollar series but a stand alone series and for this reason I don't see them having the collector demand.

I am sure theres plenty of interest in hyping them from a dealer and flipper perspective and maybe thats enough to create collectors, home shopping channels are successful at that, but it doesn't mean it has longevity, it just means those collectors got screwed and lost money.

Time will tell.

 

Flip them while they're hot because they're only going to depreciate in value over time. I'm going to say, in a year or two, when the hysteria quiets down, you're not going to be able to sell them for what you paid for them.

 

Yeah..... I mean, the 2019 ERP SAE, Selling now raw for $1100-$1200 on ebay, same if PR69, but about $2000-$2600 if PR70. I'd say it has longevity at this point though, it's past it's "hot" period, and it's still hanging in there although, Had I sold it back then before Christmas 2019 I'd have gotten $1600-$1800 for it raw.

the 2020W V75, a good $300-$350 now a year later at the moment, after they were sold from the mint they were selling near $500 or so.

For sure they will depreciate in value below their peak, but will it depreciate in value enough to make people want to kick themselves for holding out? Neither of the above cases have me kicking myself for buying them. But to be honest, I have had my fair share of kicking myself for buying other items in the past that didn't hold up to the hype. Pride of Two Nations silver set is the most recent that comes to mind, two years later and you'd be lucky if it's a break even proposition for what it cost from the mint, graded PR70 you might make $30 on it now.
Beautiful coins, that I love having in my collection to be sure, especially that maple leaf. But in hindsight, I think I'd of been better served skipping the pride set and using that money to have bought 2 more 2019 S ERP SAE's. and that's where I kick myself.

of course both those items had reasonable mint pricing. the 2019S ERP was $65.95
the 2020 W V75 was $83.00. These morgan and peace dollars aren't even 1 troy oz, and are $85....

I got turned off by the weight and cost of them, as well as that they weren't done on the 90% planchets like the originals and struck on the commemorative planchets once I figured that part out. The mint does produce losers but you wouldn't know that from the hype of the releases.

I see plenty of business and speculator interest at the moment, I'm not seeing the same enthusiasm from collectors that would add them to their collections. Sure they exist, but 175K of them.. maybe worldwide... they aren't exactly advertising it's not 1 troy oz, or the 90% planchets. A collector is going to figure that part out and decide for themselves if they want it in their collection when it's not 1oz silver and it's not 90% silver and true to the originals either. Time will tell of course, I've been wrong before and I could be wrong here. People are buying up silver just to buy up silver, and the $85 from the mint isn't bad (yeah it's bad, but people will pay it to get some silver from what I see with the way thing are, people are just going nuts for silver) but will they pay $110 -$150 in the long haul for less than an ounce in silver weight? Double the mint price? I don't know. I doubt it but they could run up in the interim. Right now they are selling on ebay for $150-$170 each just about double mint price. it could go higher, but I can't imagine it staying there and see it coming down, maybe even down to the mints price...and if the dealers get stuck with them, they could technically become "bullion prices", just to move them out of their inventory.

Do I believe there's 175K morgan dollar collectors, or 200K peace dollar collectors in the world? No I don't believe that at all. And I don't believe these are likely to be "must haves" for a morgan or peace dollar collector, but more of a novelty or side set. I'd guess there are somewhere between 100K and 1 million active coin collectors out there in the world of which just a small subset of the total of them collects any certain thing in numismatics like morgan or peace dollars. Sure there are people that collect everything willynilly, and then there are completists, that's a subset of coin collectors also, but the vast majority of coin collectors specialize in just one, or a couple, coin types in the field of numismatics, some of which specialize in Morgan dollars.

No, I don't believe there's 175K that would like to have the set, but I do believe there's at least 175K people that will buy them from the hype, or sell them using the hype, and then another 175K that will say thank you when someone else buys it for them as a gift at an inflated price and then a year later takes it to the coin shop to get what they can for it because it's just sitting around and they'd like to use the money for something else that they would rather have that's a better fit to their collection. I don't think it has any sort of longevity though.

Time will tell and we will see. I'm not trying to talk anyone out from doing what they want or collecting whatever they like, just saying I see plenty of seller inventory demand, and not so much buyer/collector demand and that usually means sellers are going to get stuck holding the bag at some point and dump at cost to move on to the next hot item.

 

They've cosmetic appeal. They've no market-depth, because they're of poor quality. They're like the Presidential dollars that aren't going anywhere. They're computer coins. The Chinese have better quality. Daniel Carr's fantasy tokens are miles better than this junk.

 

oh and as an aside, The one thing I have pegged as a potential "winner" is the
American Eagle 2021 Silver Reverse Proof Two-Coin Set item 21XJ it goes on sale August 24th, and still no details on it besides it having an S mintmark and a W mintmark.

IF, and there are a lot of "IF'S" still because details aren't there. but :
1. IF this has a low mintage, and it should with the mints trouble sourcing planchets, and it comes in at like less than 150K sets low....
2. IF this is the Last Type 1 Reverse proof ASE, and First Type 2 Reverse proof ASE,
3. IF they can bring it in right around $200 for the set or a little less,

If the mintage is low enough on it, it could just totally override the Morgan dollars on the market, Much like how the 2019S ERP SAE overrode the Pride of Two nations set in 2019. The S ERP came out and nobody cared about the pride set, sellers dumped their inventory of those at cost and moved on the the ERP instead.
Whole lot of "IFs" still but it's right around the corner 20 days from now, and the last of the morgan/peace get sold 6 days from now and folks have to wait till october for them, (probably why the mint is stalling on the details of the RP set actually to not shift buyers to that product and will probably update details after Aug 10th).... While the above RP set may ship and be in hand way before the morgans and peace dollars start physically trading. it's not listed with "presale" which suggests it will ship within a reasonable time frame, probably before the morgan and peace dollars.

and either way, the SAEs are a series with a collector base, it's not a one shot for an anniversary. The last RP and first RP seems like they could have longevity in the long run as the years pass, especially if the mintage is low enough. I don't think it's going to be 30K or 75K, but with the planchet manufacturers now, who knows what they can pull off?

I'm iffy on this still as they haven't given any details to it besides the sale date. I still think it's the winner for 2021, I just don't know how big of a winner, but I think if the mintage is low enough, it's going to make the flippers forget about the morgan and peace dollars. I don't think they are going to exceed the mintages of the 2021 proof silver eagles or even come close to those mintages though.

 

Weird. I initially got one Order processing message from the mint. Today I have two order confirmation emails, different order numbers, both for 4 coins (two each). If this is true, all the multiple attempts I had to make actually resulted in two successes. But somehow I have exceeded the 3 coin each limit!

 

Someone earlier mentioned they purchased 3 ASE's directly and then received notification of another ASE from their enrollment which would be 4, but I haven't heard of two sets of two on any of the limit 3 coins.

Is it possible you've wound up ordering two S and two D's on separate orders? The website was acting pretty wonky during the release yesterday.

 

No, both orders are for 2 of each, so 8 coins all together.

 

Hah, oh. Wow. Well, congratulations?

 

Was it the same account and the same credit card for both orders?