Ebay lotto - Lincoln roll with 1914D & 1909S

As far as searched/unsearched, searched for what? To fill empty holes in a Whitman album? For the Red Book Majors? How many people go through a roll of 1983 Lincolns looking only at the reverse without even realizing that there are some Doubled Die Obverses to be found in this series? How many people skip right over the 1995-D doubled dies while looking for the "big one" in the 1995 Philadelphia doubled die? How many people toss coins into a bag without even looking because they are not in the Red Book, or for that matter even in the Cherry Picker's Guide? What does the term "searched" mean? Very nebulous. As for me, I like to think that I search deeper than the average person out there.

 

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The odds of that roll having those 2 end coins after being randomly wrapped by a bank is next to nil. This is 100% a staged roll created in an attempt to draw a huge bid.

You would have been better served by taking your $280 and buying a nice coin.

 

Agreed, it doesn't look right at all. In fact, that 09S looks like one of the counterfeits often sold on ebay.

 

Sorry. No offense intended. It occurred to me after I left that post that it probably was only a typo, but by that time, I was away from my system and didn't have a chance to go back and edit the post.

 

But, if those two coins are real, they are worth more than $280 - barring damaged reverses. Notice my sentence starts with an "IF".

 

You simply cannot say that categorically, every roll on Ebay is "100%" staged. Would I have been better served spending the $15 bucks that I spent on 500 "unsearched" Wheats in which I found a 1955 DDO if I had spent it at "ask" value for a single coin?

 

He was talking about a roll with a 1914-D on one end and a 1909-S on the other - both face out. In the 50's when I started collecting, I probably went through 10,000+ rolls. I only managed to find 1 1909-S and 0 1914-D's. That would make the odds of having them both in one roll at least 10,000 X 10,000 to one, both on the end 50 X 49 to one, and both face out one in four. That is at least 98,000,000 to one. I firmly believe that is a set up roll. That does not say that every roll on eBay has been set up, but I will bet most have.

 

I agree with you 100%. At least you state the odds though rather than saying categorically that it can't happen. Your statistics are flawed though due to using a single sampling.

 

My father was a collector, Beginning in the 30's I believe. He never found a 14-D. I had a friend who was into collecting, probably not as serious a I, but he never found a 14-D. I belonged to a coin club for several years. I never heard of anyone finding a 14-D. Yes, my statistics are not accurate. They are way too low. But, I thought that 100 million to one would qualify as I guarantee that roll has been set up.

 

well no powerball winner for me

Greetings all,

Well the guessing games can end, now you just have to deal with my crappy pictures I am uploading a bunch to my flicker account now so you can see the bigger higher resolution pics but these little guys are all I have at the moment.

I must say it could have been a staged roll but also seems like it could have been someone's wheatie collection that they rolled up for safe keeping... most everything in the roll is in pretty circulated condition with a few slightly damaged and poor condition ones... who knows but here are the results...

1909 x2
1909 VDB
1909 S (end coin)
1910 x4
1911
1912 x2
1913 x2
1914 x2
1914 D (end coin)
1916 x6
1917 x7 (no DDOs)
1918 x3
1918 D
1919 x4
1919 D
1919 S
1920 x4
1921 x2
1923 x5

As we all figured no VDB on the 1909s, no real suprise there! Now the condition definitely has me confused. I don't have much experience in handling cleaned/dipped coins but it's definitely possible this was done at some point. That being said, it also appears to have that "woody" look to it with the obverse and reverse lines all going the same direction as if it was the planchet... There is definitely 1 light scratch that runs northeast to southwest starting around eye level which sucks but it's not horrible. Although at the right angle it does stick out. So take a look at the bigger pics and let me know what you think.

The 1914D looks pretty good but i'll let you guys decide... here is a link to bigger pics (notice I said bigger, not better ).
http://www.flickr.com/photos/7643884@N03/sets/72157622845775069/

The dino light is great for zooming in on stuff but its bright LEDs make it hard to get them right. If you want to see better pics of any specific areas just let me know.

THANKS!
J

 

I do not think that anyone would have gone though the trouble to have their wheaties rolled like that for safe-keeping. Just look at what was actually IN the roll, my friend.... I hope you left the "proper" feedback for this "seller". I guarantee that you would have a better chance at winning the lottery twice than ever finding a real shotgun roll that just happened to have those two coins showing, obverse out, yet everything else is common. I just cannot believe this was anything but outright BS. Just as others have said, I also doubt that especially a non-collector would just sell a roll like that unopened once they learned what they two end coins were. I am not saying this was either a good or bad buy... you can decide that, but just think very hard before taking that type of chance again.

 

Well that IS the crux of the matter isn't it? Who cares if a team of scientists trained a monkey to roll an enticement of wheats, or if this was a randomly rolled bunch. I don't think he made a bad buy at all.

 

I think you did very well. From what I can make out both of the coins are right at F12/VG10 (probably F12). I am not sure how much the scratch will affect the value. I see nothing to tell me either coin is fake, although it would be more positive if the is a die crack where I have marked on the 14-D.

 

Having seen the newer pics, I think you should be at least at break-even on the roll! I'm delighted for you, since I feared that you would fall short of that. Given the condition of the 2 keys, if you were to sell them, with any luck you might even come out ahead.

 

The 14-D looks fine to me, too RLMs, in fact, It should be worth more than the $280 he paid for the roll.

 

You got a good deal. Some times in life you gotta take a chance. A couple of years ago I bought an (unsearched ) bag of 1000 wheaties for $50. Got a 10-S in F cond., 22-D in G and 4 31-D's all in VF. They were nice to find, but to me its worth $50 just for the thrill of searching...

 

Seems kind of obvious, but if I saw the statement "But now I must part with this gem due to financial reasons" in an eBay listing for a 1909 S, I am immediately suspicious as to the honesty of the seller.

If I had a roll showing a 1909 S and was in financial straights, you better believe I would be ripping that roll open in a heartbeat. IMHO the seller knew exactly what was in the roll because they rolled it themselves.

 

one end of the roll looks original, the other though, looks like it has been re-rolled or been re-closed in some way.

I think that Space4Rent is spot on! If I needed money, I certainly wouldn't give stuff away on eBay, I'd sell it to someone face to face and likely get more money faster and with less hassle.

 

I appreciate the comments - i would have ripped it open as well... errr well I did! I was definitely taking a chance but reality if anyone REALLY thought it was a 09s VDB the roll would have sold for over a grand. I paid what I thought was a fair price for the 2 end coins, anything else would have been nice but I wasn't expecting much. It was definitely a risk but heck any purchase made over the internet is risky if you can't see what you are getting in hand.
Did you guys read the post from the guy who bought the $20 gold liberty for like $3500 in MS62? Wasn't what he expected, returned it and hasn't seen his money back...

What are you gonna do? Stop buying from the internet? Of course not... Anyway. (EDIT: I just recalled he bought this from the back of Coin World mag, but hopefully you get the point)

I snapped a few more pictures of the 14d date and area below the date and attached the little versions here and larger 1280x1024 versions on my flicker page... here is a direct link to the best shot i think...

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2789/4174786507_413102ca48_o.jpg

THANKS!
J

 

Those are some nice pictures. I am virtually certain that the coin is authentic. The die crack is not there, but that is not necessary. It is on some 14-D's, but not all.