eBay-touted PowerSellers exposed as shills

For all the eBay “buyers” who are still trying to find a bargain on eBay and are (hopefully) agile enough to avoid all the shill-bidding professional sellers that now infest eBay, eBay recently touted two Diamond/Titanium PowerSellers as major success stories of selling on eBay. An analysis of bidding patterns on these two sellers’ auctions suggests that they are both habitual shill bidders. A full comment thereon at:
http://www.auctionbytes.com/forum/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=6502763

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Thanks for posting, interesting.

 

I agree interesting. The only one who could prove or disprove shill bidding is ebay, but I doubt if they will.

 

Why is “Noise” Donahoe trying to destroy eBay?
http://www.auctionbytes.com/forum/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=6502877

 

Shill bidding isn't restricted to bay. Have you been to an auction lately?

 

Great spreadsheet you have there. 17,000+ bids and a total of 3 items that even bother to list the "bids on this item" etc. activity. Somehow I don't think that proves much. I have no idea what your vendetta is against eBay, but before you will influence me, you will need some facts.

 

What is your definition of "shill bidding?"

 

Shils have always been a part of the game. At least in a Casino, if you ask the shils have to ID themselves. Traci

 

Shils have always been a part of the game. At least in a Casino, if you ask the shils have to ID themselves. Traci

Shil means someone who works with the house or seller to increase the action or price. :hammer:

 

What methodology would you accept? I agree that this is an imperfect model but i am really happy to see someone working to show that there is shill bidding going on. If a serious statistician took this on as a job they could probably prove that there is shill bidding going on. BTW I think we all know that there is shill bidding going on and I think we all resent it (except for those who are engaged in it).

 

Yep Dan, If someone is driving up the price. You look at his percentage with the seller. See what else if anything your opponent bids on or likes. its pretty easy to find the shills, most would not make it in a good poker game. Traci

 

I fully believe that there is some shill bidding going on - although I am also fairly positive that it is grossly exaggerated to those who think it is a serious problem. And, for that matter, probably understated by most who choose to ignore it.

As for proof, his methodology may work fine IF his sheets showed any significant bidding by somebody on a specific sellers items. Instead, his worksheet shows total blanks in that area. It does not even hint at anything being a shill bid. It shows nothing and proves even less except someone spent a lot of time entering useless data.

 

BTW, his only other posts here ended up in a closed thread because he could not show us any law stating that shill bidding was/is a fraud. Apparently it is in Australia, but not in the USA.

see http://www.cointalk.com/t73761/

 

There has been a lot of discussion on the CU Forum about one of the most prolific coin dealers on ebay using numerous shills. Great Southern Coin, and some of their "bidders" do look very suspicious.

 

I personally think I got shilled out of winning this one, because I was about to get it too cheap.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=200409014024

The reason I am suspicious is because the seller uses private auctions only, which I dont think should even be allowed.

 

If you think you got "shilled out" of winning, then the shill did a poor shilling job. A shill's job is to bid an item up WITHOUT winning it. If the shill wins it, the seller loses because the seller, in essence, did no sell it.

BTW, if you thought that it was too cheap, that is exactly why another legitimate bidder is going to bid.

 

Well the shills maximum bid will never be known. I think it was the shill bid that probably won.

Mainly I am just suspicious of the fact he uses private auctions where you cant tell if there has been significant bid interaction between the buyer and seller.

There are few legitimate reasons to use those. And for a coin auction, I cant think of any!

 

I will probably never change your mind, but your logic escapes me. I see no reason to think shill bidding. However, I agree with your opposition to private auctions and, for that matter, I oppose the sale of uscg slabs period. But remember, you picked them.

 

I am not certain it was shilled. Its very possible that I wasnt. So, dont think I am digging in my heels on the subject.

I guess, its the fact I have no ability to even check it that makes me so bitter. The coin did go cheaply as you stated, even for a USCG slab.

 

Hi rlm's_cents,​

There are no BINs in the spreadsheet; what would be the point? And, I realize that I will never be able to convince you that shill bidding on eBay by professional sellers is rampant; frankly, I have to suspect that your responses indicate that you have another agenda. ​

I never said that all the sellers listed in the spreadsheet were shills; they are a random selection of sellers who use auctions with low start prices relative to the value of the goods being sold: I have tried to present a balanced picture. Some of the listed sellers clearly have no appearance of shill bidding; many do have such an appearance.​

“As for proof, his methodology may work fine IF his sheets showed any significant bidding by somebody on a specific sellers items. Instead, his worksheet shows total blanks in that area. It does not even hint at anything being a shill bid. It shows nothing and proves even less except someone spent a lot of time entering useless data.”
​

We must be looking at different sheets. Frankly, this statement is exactly what I would expect from eBay’s Department of Spin. Try hitting the "Sort Bidders x Sellers" button and then have another look at those individual sellers where bidders have made so very many monotonously regular bids on the particular seller’s auctions.

Did someone say that my conclusions had no basis? Try these two links which are media responses to my first Case Study:​

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/07/10/ebay_and_shill_bidding/​

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/biz-tech/phoney-bidding-rampant-on-ebay-20090714-djsr.html​

Unfortunately, it is never going to be possible to prove “beyond any doubt” that someone is a shill bidder; even matching IP addresses are not conclusive evidence; and eBay’s Bid History Details pages will only expose the possibility that a particularly naïve shill is at work; eBay’s “summary” will not expose the sophisticated professional shill who will make sure that sufficient “no-win” bids are made with his shilling IDs on others’ auctions to keep his “% bids with” statistic low enough to not raise any suspicion.

Even the most sophisticated algorithm, taking into consideration every aspect of the pattern of a bidder’s bidding, can only be to, varying degrees, suggestive of shill bidding. But still, we buyers are entitled to that information. ​

Also, I know that computer scientists from the Department of IT at the University of Queensland (that’s in Australia) have developed such a “shill score” algorithm and, on two occasions in the past, have offered to work with eBay on such a shill score mechanism; eBay did not even pay them the courtesy of responding to their communications. …​

I realize that my many ramblings on this matter may be painful for some; but, in various posts, I have covered just about every aspect that I can think of regarding shill bidding on eBay. As one who used to enjoy dabbling on eBay as a buyer, I would have much preferred to have been able to come to the conclusion that eBay actually cared about shill bidding and was doing something effective about it. Regrettably, my conclusion is that they do not care and that they are doing nothing effective to proactively control it and, as a consequence, shill bidding is indeed rampant on low-start auctions by professional sellers.​