Are rare coin values falling?

the biggest drops will be on low pop high grade junk coins (that is MS 69 & MS 70 modern stuff).

Sorry if this insults you, but how can anyone justify the silly prices that high grade Lincolns go for, like MS69 common wheaties?

Scarce stuff is still scarce.

Rare stuff is still rare. However, the amount that someone may be willing to pay for that item, like Doug mentioned, is less than it was. There are fewer high $ buyers out there.
The better stuff, think key date Barber dimes, quarters and $1/2 are holding steady. But the very high grade (think condition rarity) will continue to drop.

 

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True.

I'm hearing a variety of reports, but from what I can tell shows tend to have fewer buyers in the mid-four figures range, and more in the three figures range.

 

And if you save the lower quality silver and copper coins, they are going up in value. Why? The price of silver and copper have increased in value by almost double in a rather short period of time. And loving it!

 

I track Morgans more than anything else. Prices for most issues are flat to down.
over the last year.

I've stated the following in other threads:

Collectibles follow the health of the economy. In most business cycles, collectibles whether it's art, cars or antiques tend to fetch premium prices at the top of the business cycle. As economies go into recession, prices drift lower as discretionary income becomes scarcer.

One thing I've noticed recently on this forum is a few threads about the recent shows in San Francisco and Baltimore. I saw comments about the Mint building in S.F. and a few comments about preparations for both shows, but almost nothing about business activity. Am I to assume from the lack of posts that these shows were pretty dull from a business perspective..or am I missing something here?

 

As a beginner in coin collecting that is good news for me!I can buy at reduced prices!Anyways it is not so much the value of coins that got me into this hobby.

 

Everything has its cycles. For many things now, whether its coins, real estate or art, it's a buyer's market....

 

Funny about this report......A few weeks ago, I read an article about a guy who visited a coin dealer wanting to buy gold. And the dealer had commented that rare gold coins go up in value much more than common gold bullion. This seems to be in direct contradiction of what people are saying here.

 

Well unless you heard that coins are going up more than gold from more sources than that one article, you can't say that all people are saying this cause I surely haven't heard it.. That dealer could have just been misinformed or had hopes to make a deal..Who knows.

 

Speaking mainly for my area of expertise, Franklin halves, I would say the market is down. Franklin prices seem like a strong bargain to where they were a year ago, and any serious collector with enough money can pick up great deals at current prices. I am taking advantage of the low prices and upgrading as much of my set as I can - and in several cases have paid less for my new 65FBL's as I did for my 64FBL's a year or two ago.

 

Again it may well be in some areas coin prices are not up or even down. But from my experiences in 2 to 4 coin shows a Month, all I see is increases. There is now one new coin show a Month in my area. Used to be 3, now 4/Month, every Month, even on Holidays. During December some of these are for 2 to 3 days due to the latest growth in coin sales and that is despite the increases I've noticed everwhere. At one show the amount of dealers has doubled. One dealer that goes to all of these and comes from another state tells me he is making more money now than ever in his 30 years of being a dealer. And his is the prices that are really now excessive. These shows are supposed to open at 9AM but by 8:30 they are already full of customers.
At one flea market not long ago there was only a few coin dealers. Now there are as many as 20 at times. And even at flea markets the coin prices are getting really high.
As I noted before if this coin collecting boom is slowing down, dropping, etc. I sure wish someone would tell the people around here. All I see is growth and more growth.

 

Carl, I wonder how much of the activity you're seeing is, well, attempts to take advantage of uninformed buyers.

At my last coin club meeting there was a Wall Street Journal article discussed. It was apparently noted in that article that coins outperformed other investment vehicles. (Disclaimer: I have not read the piece for myself.) Perhaps there are enough people out there who believe, or want to believe, that coins are a place to land when flying out of mutual funds, bank accounts with extremely low interest rates, Beanie Babies, etc. And maybe that's what you're seeing.

I have not heard of any large increases in sales volumes locally, although I have not been very involved with coins in the last few months. The coin show I attended two weeks ago was called "slow" by some dealers, especially on the Sunday of the two day show.

 

The Wall Street journal article said that while the market for the very rarest coins was quite good (as an example they showed a photo of a 1795 penny that went for well over a million) the prices for coins that most collectors dabble in are flat to down. The article also mentioned that the prices for most gold coins are up (gee..go figure).

One thing the article did not mention was the rise in the price of silver. All of these AG grade non-collectible common silver coins that many collectors have "sittin' around" have appreciated 70+ per cent since January.

It was not a great article, but it may get a few folks interested in the hobby.

 

A couple days ago I watched a real nice 1852 3 cent silver, NGC MS65 go for $645. NGC's guide lists them at $890.

 

What are people calling "rare" coins. A high grade coin might not be "rare" so to speak. I'm sure the real "rare" coins are going up, as they are only getting rarer. High grade coins are subjected to the market attitude. Rare coins will always be rare.

 

"
One date, the 1903-O, was considered to be a major rarity and if one was lucky enough to ever have an opportunity to buy one, he could expect to pay a whooping $1500 for a mint state example! Most major coin dealers of the day had never even seen a mint state example of this date much less had the opportunity to own or handle one.

In November of 1962, the U.S. rare coin market was rocked by almost unbelievable news. Several dates previously considered exceedingly rare were discovered in bag quantities during the annual pre-Christmas release by the Treasury. Among those dates was the much-desired 1903-O! Obviously, after the release of this key date in bag quantities, its lofty price adjusted quickly to the new market realities. However, the die was cast.
"

http://www.coinresource.com/articles/gsa.htm

 

Both conditional and absolute rarity are "real" rarity, and both are subject to a lack of demand causing price drops. To convince yourself otherwise is a mistake in logic, IMO.

 

It would be great to have someone mention a random selection of coins, both in high grade and in low mintage numbers, and see how they priced over the past 20 to 30 years. My guess is that MS coins have dropped, on average, while low mintage coins, in the G4 grade state, have gone up.

 

just some observations,
The coin market is overwhelmingly "local" for many of the lower priced issues. Same with shows.
From what I have seen, it depends where you are as to what the economy is doing. I am told that in Nevada the dealers can pay 65% to 75% of spot for silver and gold bullion coins that walk in off the street. In Utah the price is mostly 85% to spot or above.
The same with sales. Some areas can not get enough bullion, the buyers are turning to e-bay and paying 30% over spot by the time shipping is figured in. While other "retail buyers" want to buy at a discount to spot.
With spot going up it has run over most of the lower priced or graded US and world coins. With so many going to melt, the populations of many will be much lower if this price wave passes.

Shows? in the Salt lake market the shows have been lower overall, prices may be up, but sales seem to be down. Silver moves ok, but the public just hasn't come out like they did a couple of years ago. The June show was a drowning, literally rained out. The token show was fairly good, with many tokens in the auction breaking records.

 

dealers like that usually don't survive the periodic corrections that occur in the coin market.