Who's ready for Roma?

By all indications I'm probably going to get my arse whipped at Roma again. It's almost become just a game: how far do I bid up the coin, before letting someone else take over and bid it up farther? It's tough out there for a working man ... some coins already at 3x what they sold for at auction less than 12 months ago.

I guess I need to decide if this is a bubble or if it is a new normal. I don't have enough time in the hobby to tell, and this is a case where "buy the book" isn't going to help. Any strategy suggestions appreciated.

 

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I will not be bidding since those coins are waaaaaay out of my price range. However, I would do what I (almost) always do: toss my max bid at the beginning and let it ride. If I get it, sweet. If not, well it went for more than I was comfortable paying.


And, try to stay off the glue.

 

There are two strategies:

1. Pay through the nose
2. Pay an arm and a leg.

 

I would follow @furryfrog02's suggestion. Bidding wars are for suckers, in my opinion.

 

Bid what you are comfortable paying for, if you don't get it so be it.

 

The price range is generally beyond my budget in this auction. However, a number of coins I kept track of (just for curiosity) haven't yet reached their estimated prices. Maybe they will, by Wednesday. I am thinking the CNG e-auction on the same date may have some effects on prices, since there are more choices.

 

I feel a kind of «numismatic saturation» these days, so I think I’ll be sitting this one out.
One less bidder for the rest of you, Yay!

 

At this week's Kunker sale I bid to 3x estimate on one coin, and 4x on another. In both instances I wasn't even close to being the purchaser. If there is the same buying frenzy at the Roma sale I expect I'll withdraw from auctions until the autumn. I'm sure I won't be missed since there's a lot of money chasing ancients.

 

I was sent a complimentary catalog over a week ago & have submitted 3 low bids, & if those bids fail I've got 3 more bids to place.

If given the choice of paying with "an arm or a leg" I've already chosen a leg, & will order another leg from Amazon if necessary .

 

Same here at Kuenker, bids on 9 coins not a single win. Looking at RRs listed at Roma a lot of them still haven’t a bid though.

 

My arse has been pre-whipped in the pre-floor auction bidding, so I'm a spectator for this time around.

I can almost hear the mountain of cash that is causing cracks in the dam. I suspect there will be some thundering sounds tomorrow as the hammer prices soar.

 

I was the direct underbidder for a couple of Kunker lots yesterday and have but 1 target in Roma. We shall see how it goes! In the mean time, I'll take a chance to lament my loss of this coin yesterday. I don't have any spectacular obols or smaller and so I really wanted this hemiobol since the design is near and dear to my heart and this one was spectacular for the size at .49g.

 

Dude! The one coin I'm watching at Roma I bid my max on already....and while browsing CNG doing some further research on this type of coin, I found the EXACT SAME COIN. References match up, pictures are exactly the same, only difference is CNG estimated $1500 with a gVF rating and it sold for $2500 in Sept 2020.

Read for it?

Roma's estimate is $3500 with a XF rating.

Chances are I'll be outbid tomorrow and the coin will go for over $4,000. Does estimated worth mean anything? I also now know that auction houses grading is rather subjective and kind of pointless. But alas, I'm very new to the market and maybe this is normal for Roma. I did find a Fleur de Coin rating in their auction too and that led to a lengthy debate on this forum lol.

 

This guy gets it.

 

If you were to sell the identical coin in one of these feature type auctions vs a standard one, it will always sell for more in the feature. For one the estimates are generally higher just because, and second people want to peacock in these auctions because they give off a more exclusive/sophisticated vibe and generally get more coverage.

Auction houses set estimates artificially low to give normal poor folks like myself hope that maybe just maybe they can win. So we end up bidding up a coin we have no chance of winning anyway which just helps drive up the price. Then you get sucked into the mental state of not wanting to take the Loss cause that feeling sucks so you’re hooked and you’ll bid more than you would have when the auction first came up. Ignore estimates, pay only what you would want to pay so the utility the coin gives you exceeds the utility of the cash you spent. Also, don’t fret spending 2,3,4,5,6x an estimate. Coins are only worth what people will pay for them so if it’s worth 6x the estimate to you, it’s worth it!

Coin grades are purely marketing, both to buyers and sellers. Ignore them, use just your eyes.

Good luck!

 

Thanks all for the thoughtful comments. Sometimes you just need someone to talk some sense into you.

 

Well, I got destroyed on my lot today and had what I thought was quite a strong bid in. Anyone win anything?

 

No.

The one pre-floor auction lot that I bid on sold 160% over the starting price of £500. The hammer price was £1,300 not including buyer's fee.

I did decide to submit one more bid on another lot, pre-floor auction. Forget it. I was topped by £600.

 

I loved this coin but apparently at least 2 others valued it more than I did monetarily.

 

Yes, that coin is a beauty, with a hefty £8,500 hammer price.

Given its rarity and grade, I guess that price does reflect the market right now, and perhaps for some time to come.