I was curious and did a History search (last 20 days or so) on Ebay for 1909 VDB S and 1916-d Mercury Dime. The 1909 had 66 examples (50+) graded and the merc had 77 examples 22 of which were certified. So if you do the math, thats 1204 vdb-s's (912+graded) per year. 1405 Mercs (401+ graded). I didn't check for repeat listings but I don't think there were many. Over 10 years over 12000 vdb's (9100 graded) and 14000 Mercs (4000 graded) All these coins on the market along with a slow economy should equal lower values shouldn't it?
The demand is still higher...think about it this way, there were what, 454,000 '09s VDBs minted? If every one of them was still in existence...there still aren't enough for every lincoln cent collector to own one.
Assuming there are 454,000 sirious lincoln collectors (or even half) with that much disposible income.
I don't follow your math (and I am pretty good at math). It looks like you arrived at your figures this way: (66 S-VDBs / 20 days) X 365 days/year = 1204 S-VDBs/year AND (77 '16-Ds / 20 days) X 365 days/year = 1405 '16-Ds/year You are assuming that S-VDBs and '16-Ds are listed at a constant rate(which I highly doubt). I doubt you have accounted for coins that were listed outside the 20-day period but appeared as active auctions at the beginning of your 20-day period. (You should either remove from your count any coins listed outside your 20-day period or increase the time period to account for these additional coins.) And I suspect that you are not accounting for coins that are relisted (so the same coin would show as multiple coins).
It souldn't matter on the ones listed outside the time period. This was based on finished auctions at a set period in time. So no matter what time period I choose, there will still be on going auctions that would be added in the next 20 day period. I took 365/20 and then took that times the number of auctions. I agree that some may be relists or flips but they still are on the market. Relists and flips would even lower demand because more is available. Right now on active auctions, there are 57 examples of 1909 s vdb's with 42 certified.
As noted your statistics are flawed due to exactly what is said here. For example at one coin show I saw a 1909S VDB bought and sold 3 times from 9AM to 11AM alone. The final purchaser told me he was going to sell it again on ebay. I'm sure many of those types of coins are sold, resold, resold over and over and over. If you throw in all the raw ones that are probably counterfeits, your numbers would be really messed up. Naturally there are those that buy a NGC or other slab and break out the coin and have it regraded by someone like PCGS. Then resold for a higher price due to the PCGS holder. For all you know the same coin has been resold 10,000 times and you think it's different ones.
All the coins being resold just adds to the available coins for sale. Lets just say for example, the same coin does sell 10,000 times and a hundred more coins do the same. that is 1,000,000 sales. That means the availability of these coins are not that rare. It is a popular coin to sell and at any point in time, you can find several of these for sale. Its not like it is that hard to find.
Yes I agree 1909-s vdb is not rare at all, it just look rare due to low mintage, there are many more lincoln cents that are much rarer but there isn't much demand for them because the mintage is higher, not many people save the other lincoln cents. This year happpened to be 100th anniversary of lincoln cent, and all those new designs, that is why it's very popular now, next couple of years will tell whether the prices can stay at this level.
Lots of discussion on the "math" but if you look at the surviving population by grade, then factor in the demand for high grade coins the result will be upward pressure on price. I myself have owned several 09 S VDB's, all (but one) sold and a better grade purchased. My avatar is the current one. Price inflation is always highest at the higher grades.
There is that show on TV that tries to determine whether "urban legends" such as being able to tear a telephone book apart with you bare hands is possible. I wish there was such a beast for "key" coins that are "rare". There are absolutely ZERO scientific studies that say that coin x in a certain series is more "rare" than another one that has a mintage of 200,000 more. As someone else said, the key is the number that survived - it isn't the mintage numbers, although that can be a general guide. However, I would hate to invest thoursands based on a general guide.
