I want to ask a question that has to do with having a recession. I've been in a number of recessions but none have been as noticeable as this one. I could be wrong about this and it could be due to other factors but I want to ask a question to all coin collectors who have been collecting for a number of years and anyone else who cares to render an opinion. Did the population of coin collectors increase with this recession?
Recession has cause most folk in to not buying anything.:stooge: collecting only money needed for bills
This recession and stock market crash has sent people buying PMs as part of their investment portfolio. Gold and silver coinage is one way to obtain these metals. Once the economy turns around and pepple go back to the coin shops to trade in their junk silver coins - a certain percentage will exchange them into collectable coins. Temporaraily collectable coins are showing a downward trend. If you want to dabble with foriegn collectable coins - I think coinage from China and India may be a good option. Their middle class is growing significantly and more of their population is acquiring disposable income. Therefore coin collectors from these countries should grow accordingly. I think the majority will start-out concentrating on coinage originating from their home country.
A recession is an economic slowdown. Businesses are selling less so as this trickles through, less goods and services are being produced. Less commodities are needed, even precious metals. Investors tend to turn to disposable secuities such as cash. Ever hear the saying in a recession that "cash is king"? That's why many cash in their collections. Inflation is a different matter as then, people want to invest their cash into something that doesn't plummet in value, hence precious metals. This recession is different from the last couple(except under Carter). A lot of money is being printed and dumped into the economy. Many, including me, believe inflation is just around the corner so many investors are looking as to when to jump into precious metals. It may have already began...
Whatever the situation I've noticed some very good deals popping up. Of course since I'm a newbie to coin collecting, the coin collecting world is really huge to me. I know that ppl are saving their money to pay bills but since alot of ppl are selling their hoards that they saved for alot of years, I was just thinking that would be much appreciated by us, right? And that in itself should make more business not bring it down. I mean has there always been as much attention given to coins or am I simply mis-reading it all?
Deoending on how long you've been collecting fretboard, what you may not realize is that we have been coming off the largest bull market in coins that we have seen in decades. So it is expected for prices to drop and what some would consider as deals to pop up. 'Course the real question is, will these deals still be considered deals 6 months or a year from now ? Prices could easily drop considerably more than they have already.
I keep hearing about prices coming down, but I just don't see it in the places I acquire coins. Prices still seem too high to me for coins with large numismatic premiums, and prices seem low to me for bullion coins. To address the original question, I think recessions probably result in lower coin prices, but inflation results in higher coin prices. When you have recessions with inflation at the same time, inflation probably wins out but it would be difficult to prove. Treat it as opinion only.
Pretty much my opinion too, when it comes to precious metals.... especially hyper, double digit inflation as investors will out-strip the lower industrial demand for metal commodities...
I really think it depends on who you talk to. The US Mint can't even keep up with all the business they been dealing with. The coin shows are doing good as well according to one of the links I will leave. It must be 6 of 1, half a dozen of the other. encil: http://www.nj.com/homegarden/design/index.ssf/2009/07/shortage_of_collectible_coins.html http://www.coinlink.com/News/us-coins/many-key-dates-created-in-1921-recession/ http://www.reporternews.com/news/2009/may/03/recession-not-an-issue-coin-collectors-say/
Business seems to be good these days. Legend Numismatics had a record month with a week to go. That is many millions of dollars worth of inventory sold. Personally I have only bought 3 coins this year.
They may have a record for volume, but what about individual prices ? Accordingto what I have read, Laura says those are down considerably. Auction records say the same. And you can hardly read an article in the coin mags anymore that do not talk of falling prices. Many high dollar coins have dropped by 25-50%. Common coins sit on the shelf for the most part. About the only place there has been any upwards movement at all has been for generic gold. And that is strictly because of the spot price increases recently.
From the aspects of coin shows all I see is an ever increase in dealers and customers at the coin shows lately. One coin show I've been going to for many years and has always been about the same size lately almost doubled in dealers and customers. Going to 2 to 4 shows a Month I also don't see prices of coins dropping at all. Many dealers tell me they are are lately getting more and more people dumping cans, jars, boxes, etc of coins that have been laying around for a rainy day but usually just ordinary coins. One of the largest dealers at these coin shows was telling me he is having trouble keeping up with the demand for coins. If these hard times are effecting the coin collecting system, I don't see it at all.
The last coin show I went to I was buying decent walker and Franklin halves (not fabulous, just common VF and below) for spot or a little above. I even got several quite nice Barber dimes for well below what they should have been by book. So yes, commons are sitting, but commons are what lots of people usually buy.
