Questions for you

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Just chiming in so that you will know that I didn't ignore your questions.

But as only a collector of US coins:
- I don't know the world market
- I don't even know the broad US market

I'm down in my little corner filling holes.
Hope you've got some bigtime dealers in here.

 

Different corner, but same here.

 

I'm with them ^.....

 

Well, if we are guessing here, I would guess the following:

The global rare coin market is approximately $100billion with $80billion in the US.
The annual volume is approximately $1billion per year.
The key buyers and sellers are the dealers, who account for 80% of transactions.
The key trends impacting the market are changes in consumer discretionary income, the aging of the collector population, and inflation.
The major threats are the possibility of a deflationary depression and government intervention through taxation, tracking requirements, etc.

 

I can't disagree with Cloudsweeper99, but might add that the aging collectors segment will have a key impact over the next 10-20 years. We can be expected to gradually diminish our coin hobby spending as inflation eats up retirement income, and the realization that some of us might not have young collectors in the family to carry our hobby on.

Hopefully marketing initiatives from the US Mint can help offset this.

I'm thinking of the active Commem issues, states quarters, etc. These seem to have recruited a new wave of collectors, who over time, might move into more historic series of coins. How to quantify that is the question?

 

What is the definition of "rare coin market"?

 

I will agree with some of Clousweeper numbers but the Annual Retail and Wholesale are a little off.

Annual sales are 12 to 13 billion.

Traditional auction houses - $1.0 billion
US Mint and World Mints - $1.2 billion
Internet auction sites - $1.1 billion
Direct-to-consumer - $0.5 billion
Telemarketing companies - $1.0 billion
Television shopping channels - $1.1 billion
400 largest US traditional numismatic dealers - $1.2 billion
4,600 smaller US numismatic dealers - $2.3 billion
25,000 to 50,000 part-time dealers and hobbyists - $0.6 billion
Wholesale 2 to 3 billion

Key buyers: Dealer to Dealer networks as CCE and Coin Net

Trends that impact value: World events and economy, Wars (Shooting and Trade), terroism, rising interest rates, rising energy price, inflation, and currency instability to name a few.

 

I'm in my corner watching the other peeps in their corners. :kewl:

Ribbit

 

I think counterfeiting should be considered a factor too. It's impact is going to snowball IMO.

 

Thats a lot of research-oriented questioning. I hope they're paying you for the answers.
Guy~

 

The problem is to me - what is the rare coin market. I do not consider what I collect to be rare as say - 1913 liberty nickel or 1856 flying eagle. Granted some busties are rare, but most are common and available in higher grades than I collect. So I can put a scope on the question and probably either way I will just have to sit on the sidelines like toad.

 

I have to agree with jmon. Conterfeiting has become the scourge to all coin collectors. The market is so flooded with fakes, I sometimes wonder if the TPG's are bankrolling them.

 

I did forget counterfeiting, but that would fall under major threats to coin value question.

 

It is the last 2 that are really of most interest to me, as they are the effectors that will alter the previous ones. The 600 lb gorilla is the economy. Today the stock market was up a lot mainly on the interview with the banking expert. She indicated that the earnings this quarter will be very good as loan modifications and refinancing was going very well, but she mentioned that 25% + of those will default again on their new loan. She also said that 13-14% unemployment, maybe until 2012 onward is her suspect. There will always be those who buy and sell during bad times, but the collecting of coins for most will probably be more slanted towards moderns, mint products, or creative marketing of collecting.

Humans have a built-in collecting factor ( some more than others), and if they can't collect the high price stuff, they will collect pocket change. If they have to spend their pocket change for food, clothes, or heating oil, they will collect insects, rocks, or leaves.

But since the Mayan calendar ends on December 21, 2012, it will be a moot point as the asteroid strikes China and ends the world as we know it.

Jim

 

Just looking at Heritage, they have sold just about $4B (I am assuming that auctions and consignors are additive). I would also assume that Heritage is essentially a completely US market.

I am not too sure how to put those numbers together except to say I have seen no one with numbers that high.

 

Those are some very good questions. I have to think and research some of them.

To possibly answer one at this moment, I would say that in contrast to the market of the past, where 90+% of the market was driven by collectors, today it's the Global investors that make the market. That being said, with today's global economic concerns, we may see shifts swinging back into a collector driven market.

 

For the purposes of this discussion, the term "rare coin market" should exclude bullion.

 

Agreed. I was speaking of the rare coin market in my comments. When I refer to the "Market" in these forums, I am always referring to the Rare Coin Market. I can understand how that might have been misinterpreted.