Price Guide Question

You may want to be less harsh in your approach if you want to attract more qualified people from that board to this one. If, that's what you want to do.

Numismedia prices. Are they intended to be retail pricing? They seem high to me.

 

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If Numismedia prices are high, then what does that make PCGS?
I think the only way you can get a sense of value is compare retail vs. current going price

 

This is true. but sometimes you need a quick and dirty idea fast.

 

Well numismedia seems to be closer to what things go for...

 

The PCGS price guide is a marketing tool, nothing more. They would not spend the time to create such a thing unless it served a purpose for the business.

I like using ha.com as a price guide in addition to Graysheet and Numismedia.

 

Well if it is in a PCGS holder, people will go crazy, and set their price to exactly what the price guide says. It is nutz...NUTZ I TELL YOU!

 

I agree, the kool-aid drinkers are the loudest. Having said that, most of the top experts are also members of the NGC forum as well which leaves me really no reason to entertain the CU forum or try to learn how to navigate that board. At least half of the time, I can't tell what the post material is from the quote material, from the signatures. I have to read and re-read every thread just to understand them.

 

In general PCGS graded coins do tend to get higher prices, or sell faster at the same price. That is the tendency, there are always exceptions. When I first joined the PCGS forum, I thought a lot like the others, that it was all Koolaid.

I learned that I was wrong, especially at higher prices, especially in some series. At $50 there is only minor separation between retail prices for each service. Go up to $500, and there are few ANACS coins. Go up to $5000, and there will be virtually none where the grade determines the price, or the coin will usually trade at a significant discount. The better coins will mostly have been crossed to NGC or PCGS. Keep in mind that the PCGS forum has a lot of heavy hitters, that routinely buy $5000 and even $50,000+ coins. It is a far different world than someone buying $20 to $100 coins.

Data in large numbers, doesn't lie. Data isn't koolaid. Any person can register at Heritage or Teletrade and look at thousands upon thousands of completed auctions. For some coins, some series, there is nary a difference. For other coins it is double or triple the price on average, for a PCGS top pop coin or high grade coin. For some series, such as Buffalo nickels or classic gold, there is often a full point separation for PCGS over some of the other companies.

 

RedTiger, while I agree with you, I disagree as well.
If the buyer was expierenced, it shouldn't matter what plastic it is in.
If ANACS has the best coin, then buy that, then if he thinks it is worth crossing at PCGS, then by all means they can.
Me, I have PCGS on my quarter eagles for now, I have a PCGS registry set, and NGC registry set, what is good about NGC registry is that they accept PCGS coins.
Now I would have no problem buying a quarter eagle in a NGC slab, then crossing at PCGS if I thought it was worth it, because I decided a long time ago I wanted a PCGS registry set for my quarter eagles, and I want to stick towards that, so it is just easier for me to buy pre slabbed PCGS.
With somebody buying the 50,000 dollar coins though, they could buy a coin in a ANACS slab, and if they are not satisfied, they can shell out the fees to get it graded by PCGS

 

If they have the "experience". Experience can be measure in dollars. I assure you it can. The higher a coin goes up in value, the less important my "expereince" becomes. I think just about everyone has a dollar amount to where they would feel more comfortable that the coin they were about to purchase was in the slab of a reputable TPG. It's nothing to be ashamed of. It's a second opinion. It's almost like an insurance policy. For me, I would not feel comfortable purchasing a coin that was priced at $10K or higher if it wasn't in a PCGS or NGC slab. On the flip side, make it a $100 coin and I'm very confident that my "expereince" would allow me to purchase a coin raw without much hesitation.

Does this make sense?

 

Yes it does, I wouldn't spend $10,000 on some rare key date raw, due to the possibility of it being fake.
But I would definitely spend more muhla if it were PCGS/NGC as they are the most respected companies.
But all I was saying is, people think PCGS is the only way to go, when in fact on most coins you can't go wrong with PCGS/NGC.
Trust me, if it was a key date, I would buy the best coin I could afford, whether it be NGC, PCGS, ANACS. You never know, get an ANACS coin, for way cheaper, and cross at PCGS if you want...

 

Maybe. You would hope.

 

There are virtually zero ANACS coins at that $50k price level, or even the $2k price level where the grade determines the price. The owners don't submit them there because there are virtually zero buyers for ANACS holdered coins at the upper price levels. A few newbies might make the mistake of submitting, but they likely don't make it twice.

The market tends towards efficiency. If the ANACS coins would cross at the same grade and the auction results show higher prices for that grade for other holders, the coins get crossed or only submitted to certain companies.

The PCGS lesson is one that I learned the hard way, paying full price for ANACS and other holders before I knew better. Some readers will likely also learn it the hard way, thinking they are "educated" enough. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. A few readers might listen to and learn from, the more experienced, more knowledgeable people and pay a lot less tuition in the process. But hey, what do I know, I only have 30+ years in the hobby.

 

Plus... not many newbies are holding $50k coins.

Though I'm willing to give it try !

 

There's an interesting thread in the "What's it worth" section about an 1886-O Morgan that was purchased raw. After three pages of comments, the general conclusion is you basically CANNOT buy such a coin in MS state that isn't in a slab. If it isn't in a slab, there's probably something wrong with it or it's not MS (not my conclusion, but where the thread went).

A couple people hit it on the head - everyone has a threshold where you reach the limit of your confidence in grading and determining authenticity where you basically will "buy the slab". You're still buying the coin, of course, but it comes wrapped in a fizzy feel-good wrapper.

 

Slabs vary in significance depending upon what your collecting interest is.

Someone who collects IHCs can afford to spend the time researching and learning the specifics of the set.
Which years tend to have the best strikes.
What varieties are there.
They can read and study Snow's book cover to cover ... several times.
And any othe respected resources.
With that info and actually looking at many IHCs these people can pick out the PQ coins whether they are slabbed or not.

BUT

Someone whose collecting objective is a type set (like me) doesn't have the time to do an intensive study of characteristics of an issue, never mind the 80 or 90 different issues they will be collecting.
We don't/can't spend a year studying each issue just to buy one coin.
Particularly if it's a hobby and not a profession (dealers).
These people learn general grading techniques such as breaks in luster.
These people learn to detect cleaned or altered coins.
These people learn general strike characteristics of each issue.
Then they depend on guides such as the ANA Grading Guide.
AND
They depend upon the major TPGs to help them avoid fakes, counterfeits, etc.
They depend upon the major TPGs to help them grade.

Slabbed coins are of much greater significance to a type collector than an issue specialist.
I can safely say my collection wouldn't be anywhere near what it is today without slabs.
So I'm willing to fork over a bit more money to get a slabbed coin.
I use my skills to get close and then let the experts take me the rest of the way.

 

Agreed, but Slabs are very important when it comes to any collecting, not just type sets. They can assist with the grade, and guarantee it is authentic, and if you know how to grade your coins properly, and you agree with the grade on the slab, there should be no problem with buying that coin in a slab whether it is PCGS, NGC, any other respectable TPG.

 

NGC, I'll grant you. NGC has greater market share than PCGS. The other companies not so much.

Again, for some coins the grade doesn't make the price, and those coins are okay to send into ANACS for authentication. For others, the grade and the holder both play a large role in market valuation. Whether I like it or you like it, data in large numbers provides solid evidence to that effect. I didn't set up the rules, I observe them, and play by them.

No one has to take my word for anything. I encourage all the readers to go look up the auction results at the major sites (Heritage, Teletrade, Ebay) for the coins they are interested in purchasing. For some series in some grades, there isn't much price difference between the major services and it is fine to shop around. For other coins there is a wide gap. For the series and grades where there are significant price differences (in extreme cases double or triple the price), about 80% of the time it is PCGS as the service with the higher average prices, 20% might be NGC.

There may be cases, but don't ever remember seeing a case where ANACS or ICG have higher average prices when there are lots of data points. Individual coins, yes, of course. A coin with spectacular toning or other remarkable factors may bring a much higher price than a coin in a top two holder. However, on average when there is lots of data, I've never seen a case where one of those other services have a much higher average price than the big two. It doesn't mean that coins in other holders aren't worth buying. No not at all, but the market valuation may not be the same as for a coin in a top two holder.

I'm not here to bash any company, or to fly the flag for any company, or to drink Koolaid or to sell Koolaid. There is no need to listen to me, or any other forum pundit, the data is out there for all to examine and reach their own conclusions. Again, I encourage everyone to do their own homework on the coins they are interested in and reach their own conclusions. Again, it will vary depending on series, grade, average price. In some cases there is no measurable difference at all and it is fine to shop around. In other cases there is a big price difference and a potential buyer best know that before spending their money.

 

Why can't we get back on track? The man asked a simple question about a price guide and he gets crappola about slabing and other "things".