Posted this on two other forums, I am less active on, and wanted opinions here as well Noticing a trend, that TPG are just giving out free passes to semi key coins, and key coins, and giving them higher grades. I believe that a coin's grade should be judged solely on condition of the coin, and the certain TPG's grading standards, rather than the coins date and or mintmark! I can almost see the same trend, but with toned coins, as well. Some of them will get bumps, just for the fact that they are toned, if so, that means they should have excellent eye appeal to make them (TPG) bump the grade, so wouldn't that call for an NGC STAR, instead of a bump? PCGS does grade toned coins, but not as consistently as NGC does, and NGC does grade a lot of AT coins, so my thing is, using the STAR would make sense in this case, instead of giving the upgrade of the coin's grade, or giving it the upgrade and the star. I don't know what the other TPG could do here, other than not giving a coin a bump for toning, although I've only seen it mostly with NGC. In the marketplace, you can find MS63 morgans, in slabs that say MS65, based on the fact that it is toned or is a CC or other key date, which is all the reason more to learn how to accurately grade your coins. My point is, grading should have nothing to do with a coins actual value, a coin that is worth $50 that looks better than a coin that is worth $50,000, than that $50 coin should grade higher, should it not? We've seen some examples here on cointalk, in the last few weeks, the 1877 Indian Cent graded F15 by PCGS, I believe there was a toned CC morgan, graded a 65 and looked closer to 63, and also the questionable CC morgan graded by PCGS as a 64, with the toning and "wear" on the ear and breast feathers. Now on the CU forum (don't worry I'm not leaving!) they said that there has never been an example of a 63 grading 65! And I also got this response after I asked if they think that a slabs grade is always correct... Gotta say that quote above is somewhat questionable, but okay... So I want to know your opions here, should the value of the coin, affect the grade in any way
Simple - grade the coin however you like, decide on what you think the coin is worth - then buy or don't buy. Who cares what the plastic says. If someone wants to pay 64 money for an overgraded coin in my opinion I do not worry about it. Does a coin value affect the grade - nope I do not think so, but tpg's can think different.
Yep, agree 100%... I wouldn't grade a key any different than a common, if I know how to grade that series well, and know what certain things to look for, than I grade them the same, if they had the same details and such. I would never pay 64 money for an overgraded example, and I will let somebody else do that! :thumb:
I think it should not matter if the coin is a 1921 Morgan or a 1893-S, if the grade is a 63 than it is a 63 not a 65 just because it is a key date. But it doesn't matter to me because I don't buy slabs, I just buy coins. If I do buy a slabbed coin, unless it is a super rare coin, I break it out of its prison. A piece of plastic and paper mean nothing to me.
T$, If you get past the (incorrect, IMO) assumption that TPGs grade coins rather than rank/price them, your argument has no feet. Futhermore, the "key date bump" which applies to all coins in the series, is a quite different phenomenon than the "toning bump" which is a bump for eye appeal, IMO. Said a bit differently, eye appeal holds a place in all modern grading/pricing techniques, yet the seemingly unique standard for key dates is not found in any codified standard I'm familiar with. Just some food for thought...Mike
Thats classic! That was a pretty arrogant response by someone, I have to say. Even graders will tell you they're not 100% accurate even half the time. It an opinion of grade based on experience, not a scientific finding. The same grader could grade 20 coins one day, have the owner crack them and send the same 20 back the next day, and I almost guarantee the same grader will grade the same 20 coins entirely different. Until we eliminate the human potential for error, this will always remain fact. Guy~
I was hoping you'd respond here! I saw you and Doug's little argument, and wanted to bring this up... So you think that grading a coin, or giving it a value is the same thing? That IMO is incorrect, as a coin's value should have no affect on the grade The toning bump is for eye appeal, yes, but wouldn't it actually make sense for NGC to put the star, rather than bump it??? As for PCGS, they grade toned examples, but you don't see as many as NGC in the marketplace, and I don't really see the problem, as PCGS doesn't usually give bumps for toning, as sometimes they might just not grade the coin, due to the toning.
I've noticed that key date coins have risen in price faster than the others in the same series for years until the prices have become [in my opinion] just too high. This is reinforced by people noticing the trend and advising other to buy the key dates first or to even only buy key dates regardlessof price. So the rising prices become self-reinforcing. I don't know first hand about the grade bumps, but it seems plausible, adding fuel to the fire. The quote about the grade being correct when it was graded sounds very similar to the justification for absurdly high prices for tech stocks in the late 90s -- the price must be correct because that's what the market price is. The conclusion is that it seems likely that we are in a key date bubble. Like other bubbles, nobody knows how high it will go or for how long. Market bubbles, including coin market bubbles, can last much longer and go much higher than anyone expects. But, like all other bubbles, this one will break someday and those who paid up for the key dates had better be mentally prepared to see much lower prices for some of their favorite coins and still be happy to own them.
The real question here going by your statement is "Can coins keep rising in price" Do you think coins will go up and up and up, only to see a decrease, a major decrease for that matter, in the near future?
My guess [emphasis on guess] is that key date coins will suffer a major decrease in price due to the "common wisdom" to buy the keys first, that quality is worth almost any premium, and that grading has become subjective in the eyes of the TPGs. I don't know when this will happen. The prices are high but could go much higher before going a lot lower when cooler heads prevail. Markets, including the coin market, can move higher [or lower] than they probably should for much longer than anyone expects. Sometimes it is easier to know what will happen than when.
Well, it is just like any hobby really... Baseball, and Football cards used to be HOT, and now, it is the worst hobby you could pick! I have so many cards I have tried to sell, and it is just not happening, I sold a card worth well over $100 for $31, and if I tried selling the same card today, I'd probably get about $10! I don't see the coin market doing this soon, but if it is bound to happen, then it is bound to happen
I would even go as far as saying PCGS is conservative when it comes to toning as it could be hiding hairlines etc... My experience with NGC at least on gold is they have a much wider overlapping grading standard than PCGS which gives the appearance of often being over graded.
I understand where you're coming from T. Don't forget though only because PCGS is the #1 TPG, that they are perfect. When it comes to toning, they grade as much AT coins as NGC. Now NGC might over grade slightly at times but they do a fairly good job at it ( I think ). Also, I grade the coin all the time no matter what it says on the plastic. If the coin looks over graded, I don't buy it. This is the reason why on my website I write: " Most important is that you realize that "all grading" is a subjective opinion."
You are welcomed to your purist's approach, but it is unrealistic if you hope to be able to accurately price coins and predict TPG grades. To answer your quesiton, no, I don't think they are the same thing in all cases. In the case of NGC/PCGS, which both use what I call market grading, then yes, I do think they are the same thing. However, I think you are getting too caught up in semantics, to be honest. I'm not going to try and rationalize NGC's use of the *. It is inconsistent at best, and like all TPG grades (or any grades for that matter) it is an opinion. Who am I to say it is right or wrong -- it is what it is, or so the cliche goes. But what really matters to us as collectors in the end are three people's opinions -- the seller, the collector (you and me, the most important), and the buyer (if any). You will note that the TPGs are absent from that list. Don't confuse the coins that you see with the real marketplace. Trying to draw hard and fast rules about TPGs is problematic, because the coins you "see" are mostly the crap that won't stick. Remember this, the best good coins "disappear" off the market. Kind of like Gresham's law -- that the bad money drives out good money -- except applied to collectible coins, i.e. bad coins drive the good coins out of the market. Think of it like this, if you were forced to sell half your collection, would you keep the good half or the bad half? So, be very careful in making sweeping statements concerning TPG grading practices, particularly early in your numismatic career. To wit, you could not be more mistaken in the above quote -- PCGS absolutely does give bumps to toned coins, and both NGC and PCGS will not grade coins because of toning, and both are inconsistent and not to be relied on.
Hey Mike, That was a really good post. I find myself in the unusual situation of not really having anything to add. Kudos my friend!
