Based on comments in here and in other venues the PCGS Price Guide appears to be overpriced even at the retail level. BUT As a relative pricing guide is it reasonably accurate? By that I mean if coin X is listed at $100 and coin Y is listed at $50, then you can be confident that coin X is truly worth twice coin Y in the real world. I'd like to be able to say that if I believe coin X is actually worth $80, then coin Y should be worth about $40.
Understand what you are asking but the answer is to a degree, yes. However, there are some coins where the price listed in that guide is actually accurate, plenty others it is wildly inaccurate. So it kind of depends on which two coins, in which grade, you are comparing for even the relative accuracy to have any meaning.
I will tack another qualifier on to it. I find most Lincoln prices sort of accurate (in the sense that coins sell higher and lower than the PCGS listed price). However, it is not uncommon to see price variations for the same date greater than your 2 : 1 difference. As a for-instance 1950-S MS67 RED PCGS guide = $1650 In the last 12 months, Heritage has sold 8 of them prices from $920 to $1840
And let us also not forget that many coins have dropped in value by 50% in that same 12 month period.
I have found the PCGS price guide to be a good representation of RETAIL pricing from professional dealers (not to be confused with Heritage/eBay or wholesale). Moreso for classic coins, less so for moderns, but overall it is the most accurate retail pricing guide I've found (much better than Trends, for instance). Also, the point about price variability that RLM brings up is a good one, and dead on correct IMO.
Many have RLM, but look for the red arrows, and watch the PCGS video of David Hall explaining the reason for the Lincoln drop........Jack Lee had a lot to do with it. Of course they are not talking about xf 1909's here....they are talking registry coins and the whales that play that game.
I find the Redbook useful in a different way. I compare price trends over a number of years to identify coins that might be good value because the price has lagged the market. To an extent, the Redbook becomes accurate because many sellers use it to price the coins they want to sell. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Yes, I would agree many have and I will bet many have not. I guarantee the 51-S I bid on tonight has not dropped. In fact it went up about 30%. BTW, at least tonight, I cannot find that video. How about a hint.
PCGS now has market reports weekly on You Tube, I cannot find the one I am thinking of in particular, but I am persistant. I will find it and post it, lol.
I feel compelled to chime in about the Jefferson Nickel series. PCGS has a much more conservative grading policy than NGC for Jefferson nickels. In fact, they are about a whole grade more conservative. This is important because the PCGS price guide is vastly different than Numismedia wholesale for Jefferson's, but both are very accurate IMO. Just don't use the PCGS price guide for NGC coins and vice versa. The full step designation prices are another story entirely. NGC is very strict with their application of the full step designation whereas PCGS will routinely give the designation to coins that are not full step nickels. Determining the prices of high grade full step Jeffersons is all but impossible due to the disparity in standards between the TPG's, with respect to both numerical grading and FS designation. IMO, this makes the PCGS price guide rather useless and the only good indicator is past auction prices realized. PS: Numismedia does not provide a price guide for FS Jefferson Nickels.
Is this the one; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcXPqrf-dpU ? If so, you are reading more Jack Lee into it than I see.
