Rainbow Toned Market Alive and Well

I don't see this great rise in doctored AT coins flooding the market. What I see are mostly easily indentifiable AT crap by novices working with chemicals in the garage trying to make a quick buck. The majority of these coins are quickly rejected by the TPG's and are no threat to the toned coin market.

IMO, the biggest threat to the toned coin market would be if NGC followed PCGS's move to encapsulate every coin submitted. When PCGS started the GENUINE grade, the AT coin doctors knew very well that all of their work was going to end up in PCGS slab. They now had almost no reason not to submit their coins. As a reaction, PCGS had to become much more conservative with regards to the AT vs NT issue. They were forced to abandon their original policy of grading toned coins that they considered "market acceptable" and now must only grade coins they are certain are NT. The ramifications of the this on the market has not taken effect yet. What does this do the coins graded prior to their change in policy? Do they lose value?

If NGC were to follow PCGS's lead, I believe that any rainbow toned coin in an older holder of either TPG would instantly crash in value. If both the leading third party graders change their policy with regards to toned coins, the consumers of toned coins woult lose confidence that the coins graded prior to the policy change are actually NT. If that happens, I am certain the toned coin market will crash, and crash hard.

Barring a loss in confidence of the TPG's to weed out the AT coins, I forsee no crash in the toned coin market, only minor adjustments and fluctuations that are found in any capitalist market.

 

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A few points, Lehigh...

First, you don't see the great rise of the AT coins because (with respect) you're not close enough to the market to see it. The problem is far worse than most people think, IMO.

Second, NGC predated PCGS in slabbing AT coins -- they just do it in NCS slabs -- so there's no lead to follow.

Third, you hit the nail on the head, IMO, on the toned coin market's achilles heel -- loss of confidence, whether it be in the TPG's ability to grade or the veracity of the toner market as a whole. A second concern is the ever-increasing skill level of the doctors which further erodes confidence (and many would argue that we're just about there). For instance -- and a bit of food for thought -- what would happen to our beloved rainbows if the doctor who can duplicate them posted the recipe like was done for MS70 and blue copper? Then in the coming months a dearth of coins that look just like the ones we own hit the market? Hmmm....

Lastly, take a step back a moment and think about what your suggesting. Fads in coins come and go -- and to predict a never ending market in any collectible is folly (much less a specialization area within a collectible.) They said the same thing for tulips, stamps, and baseball cards too....

Take care....Mike

 

Mike - please look at your private message inbox.

 

Catbert, Please look at your own inbox, and keep your paws out of mine!

 

Mike,

How much closer do you want me to get to the toned coin market. You state that the problem is far worse than most people think but don't provide one single fact to substantiate that claim. If you have insider information from either personal experience or a contact at the TPG's, please divulge your info.

With regards to NCS, you are correct, but by encapsulating the problem coins in a different slab, NGC has effectively insulated it's reputation by not placing the problems coins in the NGC slab. I really think that PCGS used the GENUINE status to respond to the NGC-NCS problem. PCGS knew that submitters hate body bags and found a way to eliminate that problem. If this causes NGC to lose business, it is not out of the realm of possibility that NGC will create their own GENUINE/AUTHENTIC grade to keep up.

I must be in a different world than everyone else. Can someone give me an example of a fad in the coin world where the price of a coin shot up dramatically, stayed there for 10+ years, and then crashed back to the original prices.

What lenght of time must pass before a fad becomes something else. I am sure that when denim blue jeans were first worn for fashion, they were considered a fad. Good luck waiting for that one to end. Now parachute pants on the other hand, that was a fad.

 

On the sales and/or doctoring side, not the buy side.

I agree 100%. My point was that it's not like PCGS is leading the way on this issue. I think we agree -- its a game of leapfrog with the TPGs, and the goal is not collector but shareholder value.

I don't think you're in a different world than everyone else, just a bit more optimistic than some when it comes to these things. The point of my post is to temper some of your blind optimism (which I quite frankly admire) with some brutal realism -- the truth is probably somewhere in-between and we must all figure it out on our own.

As for your request for a fad that had an extended life then crashed, you only need look back to the roll craze of the 50's and early 60's for an example, and any one of the other markets mentioned above for a more broad failing of collectible markets. In each case it was rapidly increasing supply outpacing demand that destroyed the market, and I would argue with the Mint's hundreds of products, TV infomercials for coins, magazine articles hyping Morgan Dollars as investment vehicles, coin doctor's never ending hunger for money, and TPGs inventing terms like "first strike" for their profit, and that it is exactly where we're headed.

But maybe that's just me, being pessimistic. :secret:

Take care...Mike

 

I don't think it's a fad...but the market might one day slow down. I think with any hobby, there are certain things that become extremely popular for a while and then might take a dip for a while. Here is an example to help illustrate what I am trying to say:

One of my favorite hobbies has to do with collecting and restoring classic cars. In the 1980s and into the 1990s, among the most popular American cars were the Tri-5 Chevy's (1955, 1956, 1957). Everybody wanted one and the prices went through the rough. Since the mid to later 1990s, the muscle cars have taken over as the supreme ruler. The Tri-5's are still popular and have never gone down in value...but they aren't rocketing skyward in value like they were 15 years ago (and like the muscle cars are today).

I wonder if toned coins will have a similar story. If they will spend a couple decades as the hobby's super expensive item before yielding that title to something else (yet still remain quite valuable themselves).

I could see something like this happening, but I don't expect them to crash.

 

You know what's crazy is if this coin is just a REALLY good doctored at coin, that doctor made some bank off this sale~!

 

Did you ever hear the story of the "Quite Possibly the Finest Toned Peace Dollar in Existence!", complete with NGC 66* plastic that turned out to be AT*?

http://forums.collectors.com/messag...ighlight_key=y&keyword1=peace&keyword2=dollar

Or how about the Gobrecht Dollar that went from NCS - Improperly Cleaned--NCS Proof to PCGS PR 63 and made the doctor a cool $26k profit?

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/1633035/site_id/1#import

These are hardly the only examples....and if they're good enough to fool NGC and PCGS, do you (or me or anyone!) really think you are good enough to tell the difference? Seriously?

* = I subsequently purchased a similar coin -- and it fooled me and the dealer I bought it from too! Here is a picture:

 

I think in those cases it comes down to "market acceptability." If the coin looks natural enough that the market will accept it...then it's fine. I don't think this necessarily bothers toned collectors because they love the beauty of it.

 

I agree.

Mike, AT or not, that is a beautiful coin. :thumb: BTW what makes you think it is AT. I'm here to learn. :eating:

 

The coin was part of a hoard that was submitted to NGC across a relatively small period of time and as a result are in holders that have a very specific number range. (While the coins vary slightly, they all have the same distinctive look.) It was learned by at least one individual who did the submission and its nefarious history.

 

That's how I feel about it, if I had a graded toned coin for my collection and I found out it was AT I wouldn't mind (mostly b/c it'd be covered by the grading company if needed) but whether I'd be able to resell it w/o feeling like a complete dueschbag, that's another story.

 

Sounds like the Appalachian Jeffersons.

 

... or the PKOK Ikes, or the blue indians/MPLs, or envelope toned moderns, or Wayte Raymond toned Franklins, or ....

 

I feel the same way. Even Leadfoot's peace dollar raw is a great looking coin even if it AT and I would love to have it in my collection.

 

Leadfoot - That's a nice peace dollar, and it looks really good, which makes me think whether its AT or AT (artificial vs accelerated).

It's possible the person purposefully (the keyword) placed that peace dollar in an environment that promotes toning.

When I think of artificial toning, I usually think of the use of chemicals, heat, etc.

your thoughts?

 

I can easily detect bad AT, but accelerated NT is much harder to catch. Obviously there is the novice crap that kills luster and looks ridiculous but then there is the rare "market acceptable" doctored coin that looks nice no matter the process it went through to look like that. In cases like the peace dollar posted, I would bet that one out of three times NGC would slab that.

 

I feel that intent is key. I also realize fully that intent is in most cases virtually impossible to prove. Thus the conundrum.

On the one hand I want the "real thing" yet on the other hand I'm unsure that I'll ever be sure.

encil:

:headbang:

:eating:

 

I think the definition of AT is somewhat skewed too. If I placed my Morgan dollar in a paper envelope and put it on the window sill for a year...is that AT or NT? Either way...does the end result appear market acceptable or not?

It's clear AT when I rub soap on the coin and stick it in the oven...but where do you draw the line?