I really need advice from the pro's

Hello All .... I have a question for the serious collectors here who BTW I have much respect for and have learned many things from .... Back in 2007 when the new Presidential Dollars arrived and the whole 2007 Washington missing edge and 2007 John Adams smooth & double edge errors were discovered I being a novice bought up a bunch of these coins . I now know that you do not buy coins as investments , that being said I have been watching on ebay recently and the prices of these coins have DROPPED LIKE A ROCK (to say the least).... Is this just the way it goes with modern errors or is the current economy also playing a part in these prices dropping so much ? Is their any chance at all the prices might bounce back up at some point in the future
(I have no problem holding them for a long time). If I dare to ask , what would you guys do ? Hold on to them or sell now and take the loss
(and it will be a huge loss at this point) ? Thank You All Very Much

 

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I think part of it is just the way it goes. With a lot of these modern errors, when they first come out the prices are very high in part because a lot of people hope they are going to be very scarce. Sometimes, it turns out they are more common than originally thought. I know those smooth rim coins do still have some value...but I don't collect the series so I don't know what it is these days.

I guess the big question is...are yours certified and slabbed or are they raw? I saw a bunch of fake smooth rim coins when they were selling like crazy so I would be a little nervous to buy raw examples online if it was me.

If slabbed, what are the grade (and who slabbed them)?

 

Good questions. Plus if not slabbed are they worth the slabbing fee?? I am not sure since I never felt the urge to own one.

 

The numismatic publications put into print descriptions of error coins.
Then the hype begins.
Then there's a big rush to get "yours" before the prices go through the roof.
Later the dust settles and people find out there's a LOT more of these errors around and they high premium paid during the rush wasn't justified.

I don't see your error coins ever getting back to the level you bought at (whatever it was).
Watch the market and gradually sell back.
IMO there's two ways of dealing with a newly discovered error on coins being currently issued.
1. Buy rolls at face and hope you find the error. Obviously the cheapest way and the best way to profit from it.
OR
2. Wait until the secondary market finds stability, then buy. More expensive, but at least the hyped price is avoided.

Gold and silver bullion went the same way.
Gold topped $1000 and people were still buying.
Now it's running steady at about $890 and people are still buying.
When the economy gets back on its feet I predict gold will sink lower.

 

Kanga hit the nail on the head. There's some DC quarters that have been found with die doubling on the reverse, I bet the first people paid a fortune for em, and I bet somebody buys a bag of DC Quarters from the mint and finds another 300 of em.

These can be, as you have seen, expensive lessons. Errors on older coins are a safer bet, they aren't going to find any more off-center Standing Liberty Quarters (On the other hand, they are worth thousands....)

 

This is what I was planning on doing with these smooth rim errors. I had been wanting to pick up a slabbed one and I expected the prices would come down once they were no longer the "flavor of the month." I'm not a huge fan of the series so it's not near the top of my list, but eventually I will pick up a slabbed one because I think it's a neat error.

 

oh oh its being sold on the bay for 55 bucks graded by ngc pcgs. looks like they are not worth much anymore

http://cgi.ebay.com/Washington-Smoo...5|66:2|65:12|39:1|240:1309|301:1|293:1|294:50

 

Yes this is the way it goes with modern stuff.

Yes this is the way it goes with modern stuff.
That's why finding true doubled dies, RPM's, extra whatever is more stable in coin series that has ended and been around for awhile than the new stuff.
There is also an ideal number of varieties that could exist to bring maximum $$$ and still have a realistic chance of obtaining one.
Ken Potter, Billy Crawford, John Border and I have had this discussion many times.
For instance if there is only 6 known of something it may bring big money but have little chance of anyone else ever finding one. We have had really rare doublED dies simply die because no known copies were ever found again, the 1971-P Washington DDR-001 is a good example. In a perfect would if a die variety has about 2000 or less it is a prime coin. Of course this varies by strength of varieity and popularity. The 1955-P DDO-001 has around 20,000 known but is huge and everyone wants one.
The only coins I can think of in modern time that has both a good chance of finding it and very good return on your money are, 1995-D DDO-003, 1999-P Wide AM and some of the bigger 2006-P DDO's - there are others I'm sure but finding an error on a coin that has just been released is chancy at best and I think folks really need to wait until at least a year after it has been discovered.

 

You learned the wrong lesson. Just because someone bought Enron, it doesn't mean stocks aren't a good investment. Everything depends on what you buy, when you buy, and what you pay for it. If something is hyped to the sky, there is a good chance you are going to lose money if you buy and hold. I've never believed the that you should buy what you like, buy the best you can afford, and pay whatever the going price happens to be. As you learned, that strategy doesn't always work.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong -- but from reading and learning here, it seems like this is the way it goes with everything new -- whether errors or not. This is what happened to the 1950-D nickel too, no? People knew it was going to be rare, everyone had to get one, prices went through the roof, and then settled back down.

This phenomenon seems to be what's behind the 2009 lincoln cents -- which prices are settling back down now (except for "mint rolls" which are absurdly high . . . but, if it follows the pattern of everything else will come down)

And, as folks here say, this is what _will_ happen with 2009 nickels and dimes. No one can find any right now. When they are found, prices will be high. Later on, they'll be more reasonable.

This doesn't mean (as others have written) coins can't be a good investment. It does mean, however, that one must have a good knowledge both of coins _and_ the market and how it works in order to invest wisely.

 

ah the third coming of GD

 

Exactly, it's all supply and demand. Since it was well known that the 1950-D was going to be a low mintage...people hoarded them thinking they will one day be valuable. As a result of that demand, the prices quickly went up. As time went a long and a lot of them were saved in high MS grade (because of hoarding) they ended up being common in MS and as a result they aren't worth much.

Sometimes it does pay off though, but usually not. In 1909, when the Lincoln cent came out people hoarded the first year a bit and a bunch of those coins were put away. As it turned out, one of the first year issues (1909-S VDB) is pretty rare and valuable. However, since quite a few were saved it is fairly easy to come buy in higher grades. It is still very expensive but compare it to the 1914-D. The 1914-D has more than 3x the mintage and is quite a bit cheaper in the lower grades. But, as the grade increases it begins to out price the 1909-S VDB. The reason is there are more 1909-S VDBs available in higher grades because people saved them when they were new.

 

I thought when silver eagle reverse of 2007 first came out it was selling for around 200? now it's still selling for more than that. not sure what the population for adams smooth is, but i think it's still scarce. kind of like gambling though most of the time prices goes down. don't think washington errors have much potential to increase in price though, there are too many errors out there. recently i bought another adams smooth dollar.

 

I would give an estimate based on what I know about the Adams Smooth Edge and Double Edge dollars that there are ~5,000 of the smooth edge and ~50,000 of the Double Edge. I can only base this on the amount of them that I had found and the amount I went through to find the coins when they were discovered. Again this isn't a scientific number just numbers based on the ones that I had searched and found.

I don't see the prices ever going back up to previous levels. I will tell you this. I am 100% positive that there are 250 Smooth Edge and 1000 Double edge that have not hit the market at this point nor have they been graded. I can also say this, I know of $13,000 in boxes from SE Michigan that are sitting and haven't been gone through. Take that for what its worth.