Is coin collecting becoming too popular?

Although prices have obviously gone up over time, it is difficult to say why each coin, or which general field has performed in the way it has. I've just had a quick look at a few diverse pieces and the long term performance is remarkably inconsistent.

A Charles I halfcrown struck on a shilling flan (wt. 5.9g) was part of a lot of 4 in 1909 which sold for 17 shillings and 6 pence. In 2005 I paid just over £1750 for it. Not high grade, but probably the only one. Increase in 100 years say x3-4000.

My Philip and Mary portrait penny which has a long (and desirable) provenance going back to Cuff in 1854, cost £6 in that sale. When I bought it a few years ago I paid less than £3K. Increase say x450.

Gold Soho restrike pattern halfpennies in the Murdoch sale 1904 sold for just under £3 a piece, i.e. melt given that they weigh about 23g and a sovereign face value £1 is 8g. When they resurfaced 104 years later in 2008 they mostly sold for £10K - 12K or 3-4000 times. A couple years later, that price had doubled to £20K minimum, but there's been no recent sales to give current prices.

A lot of things such as high face value milled gold have increased 5 or 10 fold since the start of the millennium whereas others have been stagnant for the past decade.

Quality has always done well over time and is likely to do so in the future, but the rocketing hammer prices seen of late suggest to me we are in a bubble.

 

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Yes, I meant the new C-6 models 2020 (not as nice as the 63-67s. Today, they are lots of 67s, but prices for frame off restorations are up there in the 200K+
However, GM should have kept the 67 style forever, the most beautifull car ever made. Same with coins, the ones produced in the 1600-1800 era where works of art/ same holds true for art/ music/ architecture. Only drawback life was hard back then/ unless you where in the nobility.

 

I see a trend where scarce, but not rare, or even common coins in high grades and pretty condition command outsized prices. Many consider these to be "conditional rarities" and will routinely shorten the description to just "rare" -- dealers and collectors that primarily deal in TPG certified coins, mainly. One thing that is relatively new is how easy it is to show off high quality "beauty shots" of these coins on the internet. I'm not claiming cause and effect but there is a strong correlation to price increases in this type of not rare but pretty coin.

 

On the other side though these conditional rarities are actually some what rare as many they could have been are quickly destroyed even with moderns and ultra moderns. Many never even left the mint in such a grade.
Eye appeal has always been the most desirable

 

I can only speak for the UK market as that is what I follow, but can say that coinflation ticked markedly upwards from around 2006-7, and was exacerbated by the financial crash in 2008 when people were looking for a place to diversify their wealth. After the crash, the one thing not in short supply was liquidity thanks to quantitative easing to stabilise the banking system and the perceived need for money previously on deposit to find diverse safe havens - coins ticked this box. People with lots of money tend to like the best and be seen to have the best, so put two or more of them in the same room and they will push prices higher. Significantly, a middling coin of an easily obtainable type barely moved in price compared to the high grade pieces which sold at ever increasing multiples, so the demand was as always for the best available.

Around the same time the internet made a significant contribution with the likes of Facebook providing a forum whereby the man on the street was exposed to the potential value of coins due to collective information (and disinformation) being disseminated to all and sundry. This pushed the demand for modern coins which everyone could access into the stratosphere. The tabloid press jumped on the bandwagon with claims that the coins in your pocket could be worth thousands of pounds. They wanted to sell copy while the public with its get rich quick herd mentality immediately took it on board that every coin was worth a fortune. Every tiny blemish was unique and consequently valuable.

A good example of this was the (2008) undated mule 20p. When the first example came to light it sold for just over £200 as I remember, which for a genuinely unique piece was a reasonable starting price - not excessive, but reflective of what a collector would pay for a new find. People started looking through their change and suddenly there were loads out there, with ebay at one point having 863 listed for sale. Clearly not as rare as initially thought. Once the Royal Mint had confirmed that either 100,000 or 200,000 struck, established collectors with a bit of rudimentary knowledge would have put a fair price at about £30-40, this being the price of say a 1950 or 1951 penny which had a similar mintage, but no, people continued to pay 3, 4, 500 pounds for one. One lasting effect was that people in droves continued to collect modern coins. The RM obliged by commemorating everything possible with a coin and demand outstripped supply, as it does to this day.

It's always supply and demand that determine price. Whether the prices can be maintained or increased is down to the numbers collecting as it is worth remembering that there is a finite number of potential buyers and if prices increase ad infinitum, eventually the Ponzi effect will apply and someone will be left holding the baby. It was ever the same for any bubble.

From a personal perspective, I have maybe a couple dozen unique pieces and a similar number where there are only one or two available to collectors, but also know that the number of potential buyers would be limited too. This would put a lid on prices when the time comes to sell, as some would likely sell for no more than a modern 'limited edition of no more than 2000 pieces'. There are no rules. C'est la vie.

 

Auction sites such as eBay are responsible for driving up coin prices, every get rich quick person seems to have settled on coin collecting and asking ridiculous prices for relatively common coins such as the 1971 UK 2 pence piece which has created an urban myth that it is extremely rare (almost 2 billion minted). These are being advertised at up to £5000 when in fact it is the commonest of all the 2 pence coins. New issues are another source of income for these profiteers whereby they bulk buy multiple coins from the mints and immediately put them on eBay for three times the issue price. Hopefully one day these leeches will slither off to another area to screw genuine collectors out of their money.

 

A classic example of profiteering,


https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/353311122317

 

I agree with "robp" in that a great deal of what's going on now is the tabloid press, Facebook, and other entities that embellish Get-on-the bandwagon" stories about treasures in your pocket. Couple this with an uneducated public that believes anything written down in print and you have all the makings of people getting fleeced by modern-day grifters. Granted, the Registry set folks have helped things along with popularizing the "my collection is better than yours" phenomenon. I think that it will all work out in the end .. it's as simple as supply and demand for people who know one coin from another.

 

Started in 1966, had several years just collecting, Now back to serious looking.

 

It also could be that.....more and more people are entering the "Middle class" around the planet. Thus many have/ will start coin collections.
Second point/ most modern mint issues are a joke/ thus most will collect "classic" coins from 670BC to about 1945. Some nations still produce beautifull coinage/ UK/ Hungary/ all the rest produce kitch.
Third point/ there are super wealthy collectors that can spend billions to secure their "must have" coins. Example the "Tyrant Collection"

 

NIFC?…please elucidate...Spark

 

Not Issued For Circulation. Kennedy halves and Presidential dollars haven't been minted for circulation in years; they're only available for purchase from the Mint (at a markup, of course).

More people say Not Intended For Circulation, but I'm sticking to my guns.

 

So what your saying is people aren’t collecting as a hobby... they’re doing it as a way to make money which is taking the joy away from us coin collectors? Geez... soon coins are going to get more expensive then they are already thanks to coin hoarders...

 

Do you have a license for that gun?

 

I would say no. Even super rich guys like the "Tyrant" are collecting for pleasure not investment. Most investors have no clue about coins/ would not even know what is a deal/ how much to bid. The investor types speculate in gold/ mostly bullion type coinage/ gold/ silver bars. Someone who spends 350K on a MS AV 5 Guineas William&Mary is a collector./ same with the person that bought the IDE MAR Aureus for 3.25M UK Pounds.....

 

I think NCLT is a more common acronym. Non Circulating Legal Tender.

 

I bought a Buffalo in 2016 for $1.7K. How much does it sell for now. That was a mint purchase. With the prices of gold at them Mint, I've bought my last coin from them. It took over 35 days to get my last purchase.

 

It would depend on gold price. Most collector AV coins do not fluctuate with metal prices, but with rarity. REcently, Sincona sold a 1/12 Dukat Leopold I Breslau Mint for 1600 Swiss Francs/ that coin has 0.28 g. gold. It was EF/MS quality. I got same coin different date at Rauch Auction for 900 euros in 2016. Saw a 1 oz. Buffalo for sale at 2.3K.

 

Covid-19 has given rise to the internet and people are realizing that there are some pretty good buys online. Credit card companies are enjoying the profits during the pandemic. My answer is coins NO, despair YES! Great question, thanks.

 

Makes sense. I don't get to talk about such things much outside of CoinTalk, so my experience is limited.