Is coin collecting becoming too popular?

Over past 20 years/ auction records show dramatic price increases. However the past 9 months indicate a hyper coin market with insane records being broken daily.
One example:
AV Dukat 1633 K-B Ferdinand II FDC Polish Auction 2016 3500euros (I got this one)
same 1633 example/ but not FDC/ probably MS realized 12K euros Slovakia Auction. Price increase of 8.5K in 4 years. Has anyone noted this trend?

 

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I think world coins are catching up to the highly overpriced US coin market. It wasn't all that long ago that world coin collecting wasn't very widespread. I have long felt the US coin market is way out of hand. Now that dealers are catching on that world coin collecting is almost as popular as US coin collecting, they are elevating their prices.

 

Good question. It reminds me of how the DOW crashed early on in the pandemic but has vaulted back to new highs. Everything has shifted, in the stock market and in coins. I have to imagine that some with very deep pockets are adding some of these record breakers to their investment portfolios here in the U.S., but also deep pockets from foreign countries like Saudi Arabia. It's a paradigm shift.

 

I attribute the increase in collecting (IMHO) to 4 main reasons:

1. Covid-19...record number of people are working from home or spending more time at home with their collections due to State curfews/shut downs.
2. Increase in YouTube/online "influencers"...particularly "silver stackers" and those dealers making "Do you own this $100,000 penny in your change" type of posts. Now, more people are checking the local CoinStar machines and coin roll hunting than ever before, it seems to me.
3. The recent election (not a political statement, BTW)... has caused some people to fear for a decline in the economy or even a refusal of cash/coins - pointing to the "stacking" of gold and silver bullion as an investment or protection against a Governmental "collapse".
4. It's no secret that most collectors (even casual ones, like me) are > 40 years of age. The "boomers" are starting to age and die off, causing their children/beneficiaries to inherit coin collections; either these people are getting interested in the hobby, or they are cashing in/spending these collections. I've never see more proofs and NIFC coins in my coin roll hunting than right now.

Cheers.

 

Good points! When one compares that 1633 Dukat to lets say a 1933 US Double Eagle...
1633 Dukat (3-5 known) last auction record 12K
1933 Double Eagle (17+) known) 7.6 M$
Your right, its only the "World" catching up to the US prices/ and Canadian/ we have some vastly overpriced coins too. like the 1921 5 cents silver.

 

Overpriced isn't the right word. More expensive is, but just because something is expensive doesn't mean it's overpriced. It's especially true when many parts of the US market are actually underpriced

 

More importantly than spending more time with the collections this forced basically everything online. People that would have never bid on things before and only bought at the LCS etc are now discovering the massive internet market and getting involved with it.

For whatever reason there were a lot of collectors before this year that just refused to buy online or use online auctions, many of them have since changed their minds

 

Gosh, what if we did this:
-- British Caribbean Territories 1965 50 cents, mintage 100,000 MS60 about $30
compared to
-- Mercury Dime 1916-D 10 cents, mintage 264,000 MS60 $20,000 Maybe?? and
of a Full Split Bands issue would fetch $40,000 or more.
So what do we conclude? maybe more should collect non-U.S. coins for "rare" coins? or just low mintage ones?
My philosophy is simply this: when it's no longer fun and enjoyable -- stop !!

 

I blame COVID19 for all the parking lot coins , just saying . jmo . lol

 

Don’t mean to argue. But in my mind, yes US coins are enormously over valued. In the 1980’s-1990’s I assembled an extremely high quality set of Franklin’s (that were subsequently stolen). I was a poor man and could easily afford extremely high quality examples. Now I am no longer a poor man and it would be near impossible to assemble the same set without a second and third mortgage on my home. And we are talking about one of the more common coin series in the US catalog..... If I were a young person today wanting to get involved with coins, I would be quite intimidated. A paper route salary wouldn’t get a young person very far with US coins these days. Yes, US coins are overpriced and my generation is at fault.

 

I don't think "overpriced" is the right word for what you're describing. With that logic, apple stock is overpriced because you could buy it for $25 in the 1980's.

The market determines the value and that's especially true in this case. The US coin market has grown tremendously and therefore demand is rising; leading to higher hammer prices. As long as people are willing to pay for it at a mutually agreed price it's not overpriced.

 

It seems like most of the pressure is on the high end to me. For more common coins, there don't seem to be millions of collectors of each type enough to budge the prices very much. If anything, I've felt that that world coins were underpriced compared to US coins earlier, in that much rarer types than a comparable US issue could be had relatively cheaply.

A couple examples: 1 Seychelles 1939 1/2 rupee, mintage 36,000, bought for $10


Liberia 25 cents, 1896, mintage 15,000, $25


Neither of these are truly rare coins or in perfect condition. Both were bought in the last 5 years. They go for more than silver, but not really all that much. If there were an upsurge in collecting interest, there certainly aren't enough to go around.

Compare to a moderately scarce US coin, the 1875-S 20 cent piece.
They minted many more of these, 1.155 million and it is the most common type in the series. Looks like I paid $87.50 at the time, about 25 years ago, which is about as much as I ever pay for a coin.


Conclusion: Most world silver is much more affordable than US for comparable mintages, outside of rare types and a few countries with strong domestic coin demand.

 

Mintage isn't the end all be all. Surviving pieces is what counts especially when talking about grades and those prices are way off. A 60 is a really really bad grade by the way

 

So because I can't buy a house/car/health insurance/appliance/tv/radio/food/stocks etc etc etc for 1980s prices they're over priced now too?

Heck would your business give me 1980s prices for services? I'd be very interested if you roll your prices back about 40 years to not be "overpriced"

No they are not over priced, their value went up over about half a century

 

Coin collecting has been an entry level hobby for decades. Young people should be able to enjoy and learn from the same history we had the opportunity to hold and admire. If coin collectors are as rare as hens teeth a generation from now, we have nobody to blame but ourselves for sucking every cent of profit we could get out of the hobby. And I don’t eliminate myself from this equation either. In fact, I just purchased a $1400.00 coin I am anxiously awaiting delivery of. We got young people looking for outrageous inferred errors because they cannot afford to be true numismatists in this day and age.... On that note, I will excuse myself from this discussion as I won’t vary my position on this and don’t want to lose any friends. Carry on, gentlemen.

 

There seems to be a ravenous demand for high quality material. It can be US MS large cents/ Canadian MS-65 Quarters from Queen Victoria/ Germam States Talers in MS/ Most gold/ electrum coinage from 670BC to 1933. Most of the Australian Sovereigns have high mintages/ but very few MS-65 survivors. However, collectors coins have been going up in value for past 100 years. Back in 1920/ only the elite could dabble in coins/ most people had trouble buying food/ there was no leftover $$$$ forhobbies/ sports/ entertainment/ hardly anyone had a car. A radio was a luxuary item. I recently won a coin that had auctions tags from 5 previous events. This will show prices over past hundred years.
I bought this coin from Sincona Auction in 2018/ paid 5100 SFs(5500US)
Coin sold in 2002/ French auction for 700 Euros/ it realized 300 US in 1965/ 25 Reichs Marks in 1936 Berlin Auction/ which was 5US$. So from 36 @ $5US too $5500US in 2018!
The coin is a
Papal States
AV Fiorini di camera ND Roma Mint
Pope Alessandro Borgia 1494-1503

 

No it hasn’t. The hobby for decades and decades has been the price is basically what you want to make it. You can get cheaper coins or spend a lot and go for the best. You could also be collecting coins from today that in the future will be classics like mercz and slqs and walkers who at one point where just spending money.

The cream of the crop costs money, coin collecting has always been a hobby that costs money.

I’d ask again would you be willing to let people get late 1980s prices for your company? If not why and why should anything else be different?

The point I’m making is that prices go up and saying something is overpriced because it isn’t the same price as 3-4 decades ago is selection bias. If you raised your prices in that time why can’t coins as well?

I’m just being harsh because everything is more expensive now. There shouldn’t be some magical freeze from nostalgia on anything.

Ps midish 80s coin prices was the worst time

 

Inflation is to blame.
In 1967 (Canada) you could buy a fully loaded 67 Corvette
427/435HP engine for $6K/ today a 2020 goes for 110K!
A house that sell today for 1million went for 15K. You could buy a Coke for 5cents. Our Dollar was a "Silver Dollar". The 67 Centennial AV 20 Dollar Proof coin had 1/2 oz. gold.!
In 1932/ you could trade a $20 bill for a Double Eagle/oz gold coin. In 2020 you pay almost 100/ 20 bills for an oz. of gold. I bought my house for $180K in 1990/ now houses on our street sell for 1.2 M+
However, rare collector coins are going up even more then inflation In 2010 I had ten coins in my coll. worth more then 10K. presently/ I have 200 worth more/ but this is not helping me/ since I am not selling/ but buying. And working hard at my lawn care business to be able to do that

 

Always a fun comparison, but not really relevant. In 1967, you didn't know what would best catch collectors' fancy 53 years in the future. And attrition is a factor -- in 1967 there were a lot more well-preserved 67 Corvettes than there are now.

I'm glad houses on your street are doing well, but that's not universal; ours has only doubled since 1996, and there are lots of places where house values have dropped over that interval. Long-term, too -- find an old mining town where the mines have played out, and you can get Victorian mansions for a song. If there aren't good local schools and/or nearby attractions, the market simply won't support high prices.

 

Pshaw, I lose money on every sale but make up for it in volume . . . .

Z