Heritage's Bloodbath at FUN

So, time to post what nobody wants to admit, the market is crashing.

I am shocked at how cheap some of the Standing Liberty Quarters went for at Heritage's FUN sale, now I am REALLY kicking myself for not flying down to look at them, but, ya know... I don't think they are even close to being done yet.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=2620&src=pr
1916 SLQ F-15 $6,250 with Juice. That's less than what one did 5 years ago.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=3801&src=pr
Same coin, MS67FH, bid that secured it was 2/3 of what it sold for 2 years ago.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=3807&src=pr
1918/7-S MS64 FH.

If you want proof that the market is dying, look no further. This is a seriously rare coin, PCGS and NGC have a total of 7 in their pop reports, take out the crackouts and reality is that 3 or 4 of these coins exist in 64FH (Pop Top). This isn't an MS63FH 1930 that slipped through the cracks, this is a tough coin, a very tough coin and a coin that should have gone nutso.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=3825&src=pr

An MS63FH 1927-S for under $20,000. OK, it's not a super gem, but FH 27-Ss are genuinely rare, and this one went for a figure that's dramatically under what it would have done last year (When it should have brought $30k)

Yeah, the market is in flux alright... right now I'm buying cheap stuff, and holding onto my cash.

 

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hmmm.....

 

Great time to buy!! Unfortunately for me I have realized I need to take time to catalog my collection better before tax season, and don't really have any extra cash at this time. Paying down debts is taking priority.

 

My thoughts exactly.

 

unfortunately the indian mohurs are going up even as we speak but it will be good if the market goes down there are quite a few coins missing from the spock collection

 

I bought something at a fraction of what a similar example sold for in the Fall. Glad I waited.

 

well, if the bottom does fall out and people get desperate enough. I guess I'll make a killing snapping up everything in sight, I predict it won't happen though. People will more than likely hold on to what they have and ride out this rough patch, then the market will rebound.

 

BQ, I hope you are right, but I think it is going to get a lot worse for people down the road, and we will see unemployment slide into double digits soon. There are going to be some real rough choices down the road for a lot of people I am afraid, we have just left the roaring twenties, and you know what comes next.

 

well let me know it might be a good time to put some finishing touches on the spock collection

 

I think one should look much, much further. You cited 4 coins in your example, all of the same type. To proclaim worldwide doom one needs a broader sample size.

The recent Heritage auction brought in $52 million. Hmmmm.

I examined many hundreds of those lots in hand (maybe even a thousand or more). I boiled that down to about 150 I watched more closely, and 20 or so very intently.

Strong coins brought strong money.

Here's one that sold for 50% more than any previous HA auction record for this issue / variety :

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1121&Lot_No=274

Trust me, I wish the market had crashed on that one ! It's a luster boomer if there ever was one.

Please remember that on rare coins like the few you cited, individual sale prices swing wildly based on quality. They aren't commodities. For valuable high-end, people really do "buy the coin, not the slab".

Are the specific coins you mentioned low-end for the grade ? I don't know.

I do know this... if anyone thinks they're getting crazy-great deals because you think the entire world is falling apart, post up your new acquisitions. It's possible a low price is due to lower quality than you think.

Let's see 'em.

 

I kind of thought the same thing as I check the PCGS price guides on a regular basis and it seems that in every coin type there are many red price drop indicators and only rare green price increase indicators.

Their summary page http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceChanges.aspx doesn't seem to show the same thing, with the gainer's percentages far greater than the loser's percentages. However, they only show the top ten so there's no way to gauge whether there are just ten gainers vs one hundred losers, but I suspect that is the case.

These losers are almost exclusively in the high graded coins. With the economy today, if you have a cash flow problem it's hard to have great amounts of your assets tied up in little chunks of metal.

 

Read this, that Laura Sperber is a sharp cookie. I get ticked at times, but she's tellin you right this time. Solid, solid advise.

http://www.legendcoin.com/cgi-bin/inventory/cms2.pl?page=market_report

 

Back during the Depression of the 1930's Duesenbergs still sold at high prices. So did a lot of luxury items. Frankly there are people that are not affected by these downturns, they have money in the bank and not a lot tied up in real estate, stock market etc.

So in essence while her wording could be taken a bit strongly, it is true. Top end stuff will still perform well, but the sloppy seconds that many collect will go down or stay flat.

 

Interesting.. I have noticed at local shows the crowds seem to be slowing down, and there is more collectors selling out than buying. There was one guy at the last show buying every 1977 Proof set at the show for some reason which was odd.

 

I doubt that this is really true. I don't normally go to large shows such as that since they, as a general rule, are well overpriced on everything. If a few coins are within reason or actually cheap, it's just a come on.
Maybe I'm wrong but since I go to about 2 to 4 coin shows a month, visit a few coin stores, I just don't see the market dropping. Not even a little. Possibly for some coins that are not the average collectors coins the market may have dropped somewhere, but not around me.
Where I live we have had some really fantastic bad weather but the attendance at coin shows is larger than ever. The one I went to around the middle of December was one of the most crowded I've seen in years. I had to leave due to not much room in the aisles due to so many people. AND they were buying.
What I've noticed over many, many years of coin shows is when they get large and dealers have to travel long distances, thier coin prices are way up there. They have to hold up in hotels, buy food out every day, pay for gas in a vehical or plane fares, other expenses and all must come from the profits from selling coins. Coin shows with dealers from the general area have much lower prices but not lately.
The standard, common, everyday coins are getting well up there in prices. Jefferson Nickels, State Quarters, Roosevelt Dimes, etc are the typical coins that have jumped in prices around me.

 

My view, regardless of whether or not FUN is an appropriate gauge, is that ultimately the hobby is driven by discretionary funds by the collector. If businesses like Circuit City are any example (going bankrupt), then perhaps this is a reflection of the general economy where people are tightening up their spending and avoiding wants versus needs in greater numbers. This is also reflected in the recent report regarding the savings rate which has actually increased after several years of decline.

It is clear that the economy is in recession, unemployment is up, and discretionary spending is diminishing (whether due to actual or fear of job loss or the realization that one should pay their bills before buying unnecessary items). This MUST impact the hobby and thus coin values (perhaps excepting the very high end) eventually. Perhaps it just hasn't hit your area, Just Carl.

 

My collecting is for entertainment and a hobby, I don't do it for a living. Like most I have a job and when I save enough I will buy a coin for my collection. Recently I have saved enough money for another coin but like most have no real desire to spend my money due to the unknown future. I feel most people feel this and if the coin stores in my area are indication most are selling not buying. The dealers around here for once have a nice selection of coins. Still haven't seen the price fall as much as I'd expect, but I guess it will happen. For me the main question is when will rock bottom hit and for how long. I'd like to know when to buy that nice MS 1934-S peace dollar.

 

The problem is you cannot look at one series as showing the market is crashing. Did you look at other series for auction results?

 

I think market is not as strong as before, the 2 high grade standing liberties sold for relative low price, but there isn't many buyers able to afford them, it only take 2 buy buyer to push the price to high level, if one person have losses from stock market, and can't buy, the other person can buy at cheaper price, maybe the buyer of those coins are willing to bid higher, and it just happens that no one can push them. I bought my very first $20 gold peace, a high relief, now i can't buy for a long time too.

Morgans and Lincolns are still selling, there are 17 uncirulated 1909S VDB, maybe 1-3 might not sell. Over all people are still buying, otherwise, how can they realize $52,111,548. I was looking at their post auction buys, there isn't many bargains out there.