I read a few articles earlier this year, about the reasoning behind the increase in the price for first year Lincoln cents. It was the 100 year anniversay and dealers were buying them up for what may well be the last year of the lincoln memorial cent as we know it. I myself am the owner of an EF example, and in the past few months, I have watched it's asking price jump from $3 to $7 (according to CoinValues magazine). But has anyone really noticed an increase in demand by collectors?
I don't know how to gauge it, though I've seen some Lincolns go on ebay for ridiculous amounts lately. Are you talking about just the 1909 P? or all 4 of the 1909 varieties?
I have greysheets going back a few years. Yes , it is true. A roll of 1909 cents was $25 a cpl years ago, it is now wholesale at about $100 a roll. VDB's? You could buy them for 3$ in XF a few years ago, now they are $12-$15. I have stocked and sold many rolls, better dates, grades, etc. The quickest seller without any doubt are the 09 rolls............ All Lincolns are up, but can they sustain? I will not predict.
The general thinking is that older Lincolns are on the rise because of the 2009 anniversary with the release of new reverse designs. The interest level of the set as a whole has increased because of this. The Future? The general thinking is that they will fall back to "normal" levels within 5 years. If all the "general thinking" is correct then: 1. If you already have a stock of Lincolns take your profits within the next year or two. 2. If you don't already have your Lincoln set filled, put them to sleep for a couple years until prices drop back down. Work on or start another collection (Jeffersons, Roosies, etc.)
Those who sell coins (anything) are quick to grasp promotional ideas, real or imagined, to raise prices or get you to think you need certain products (coins) "right now"! Some have an advertising manager whose sole job is to find anything the company can use to get you to buy a certain item or to pay more for it. i.e. Silver/gold/platinum prices are up... Silver/gold,platinum prices are low... Silver/gold/platinum prices were high... China uses one-third of the world's silver... And often the ads are directed at non numismatists too: Obama is President. You can buy an Obama colored coin and get a Kennedy Half Dollar with a colorized picture of Obama on its obverse FREE... At all times you must decide the most a product (coin) is worth to you in the condition (grade) it is being offered. Many times you should decide, "No!" Clinker
Ya know what the problem is with increasing prices ? Somebody is always, and I mean always, behind the curve. And quite often it is a lot of somebodies. It has already started at the coin shows - reports of not seeing many Lincoln cents. Why ? Because the dealers do not want to be behind the curve. I would urge caution. And if you want to sell, I would not wait.
Doug At the ANA here in Phoenix, you made a remark about asking dealers about the Lincolns on fire....many proclaimed they would not be sitting on the downturn. This is against my better interest as a seller, but as a collector first as well as a coin talker, I agree. I allowed myself to get burried in them cash wise, and am now in " reality" mood. As a collector, I would also sit for a while. We may see a year jump in crazy money, but IT WILL NOT LAST. 8 months ago, buying for sheet was a joke. They brought silly money at auction and even sillier money on the bay. It's over gang. Seroius. I have seen key dates go for sheet and under, and thats top 2 slabbed. Easy money Lincolns flips are over unless you buy over the counter at a "70% bid" shop. They will then be wholesaled to folks like me at 80%, then I will ebay at 90%...it's a chain I work hard to inventory my stuff, and I will be much more descretionary in my buying. Dont get me wrong, the nice, primo stuff is always in demand, but I warn you, dont hit my ebay for a while. I am doing what every person that is burried is doing. Dumping. Those of you with the primo's, and the true nice coins? Dont worry a bit, you are solid. Wait a year and start buying those coins that you always dreamed of, they will be cheaper. As a cointalker, I'll share this.
Jack, Many thanks for that post. I'm in a position where, to comeplete the circulated set I started as a kid, I need the following coins.. SVDB 09S 14D 22 Plain 24D 31S Plus some early semi-keys, like the 10S, 11D/S, 12D/S, 13S, 15S. I have been thinking that if I were to hold off for a while that it would be prudent. I figured that right now I am in the ca $4,000 range to complete this set (In and around F grade) but wonder how much the market might drop between now and, say, the fall. From the sounds of it, it's down 30% already. Personally I think we're at the top of another spike, I've pretty much stopped buying anything of value, which is why the upcoming FUN sale has my head so twisted.. arrgh!
You need the ones everybody needs:smile I would advise you ( as a semidealer vest pocket guy) to be stringent in your looking, do not accept anything except primo for the grade, and at all costs avoid the worst mistake: fill the hole emotionally to complete a set. WAIT, there are nice coins out there, do NOT buy a filler for a " cheap price" Hold your horses guys, the time to be a Lincoln snob, if one exists , is now. All I sell is Lincolns, thats all I do. I will tell you honestly and quickly, you will be stuck if you buy problems. Take the time and enjoy the hobby, make a search out of it and seek out the truly elusive tough coins. Many of your " key" dates are not tough to find, everybody has them ( I have a 1/2 roll of slabbed 24-d's ( me bad) ) ....but be sure to be picky. An AU-55 or 58 ( if truly nice) is a tough coin, a VF-30 or XF-40 is not. The time and money might be better spent on books and research than coins. Chill and learn.....then, attack that bourse with some knowledge, you will profit from knowledge far more than you will ever from emotion:whistle:
OUCH I just killed my site for a year, but I feel good doing it. It's the "collector" thing to do. Buy the book before the coin. Learn the series. It is a very complex series, and study is valuable, it will arm you against the generics. Spend your time rather than your money.
And how do you think I felt about saying it Jack ? But I'll tell ya what pal, THAT'S what makes you one of the good guys :thumb:
Thanks Doug. I imagine that advise goes for all series in general, but the Lincolns have just been crazy the last year and a half, more so than most.
It's kind of like the way people started collecting Washingtons after the State Quarters started. I'm just glad I have a lot of lincolns that I got at face value from roll searching.
I've been fascinated by the Lincoln craze the past year or so. I think I've expressed myself rather emotionally on the subject a couple of times. But the real interesting thing is that this is basically 100% driven from within the coin collecting community. Outside of coin forums, I hear nothing or very little of the 2009 centenniel, etc. And yet, the fire keeps burning. Has there every been another time in US numismatic history that an entire series has taken off like the Lincoln one? Fascinating. Simply fascinating.
Yes certainly, but perhaps not to the same degree. Over the years there have been many, but what it was often depends on when it was. The when is important because of the amount of money that a coin of a given denomination represents. The larger the denomination, the less likely it was to be widely collected or popular the farther you go back in time. But pretty much everthing has gone through periods where it was considered "the" thing to collect and the series got hot. Possible exceptions would be the Roosevelt dime and trimes.
My coin dealer laughs at me when he sees my needs list. It consists of at least ten different series of coins. I buy like a stock broker and try to resist the current overpriced series. I am hoping the Lincolns will cool a bit, just so I can complete the series finally. Predicting trends is tough, but I hope my patience pays off.
I love it how Jack's the voice of reason and I'm not The problem is, he's right. However, the 9 year old in me is still staring at the F-12 22 plain at the coin show in 1984 that was a bit out of reach. Regardless, the smart thing to do is to upgrade the whole set.. but what if I built 2 sets? One a super nice XF/AU set and the other the 9 year old's set? The weird thing is, now that I can afford to buy any Lincolns that I want, I find that I don't want those coins. One of the things that I have been amusing myself with recently is assembling matched wear sets, which is somewhat trickier than I thought and proving to be quite the challenge.
I moved some stale inventory on the bay tonight and only lost a few $$$. I consider that a win. Phew.....I expected worse. On the other forums, talk is pretty much the same. Primos are solid, sell your problem coins. Sell them NOW. Lose the sleepers, the coins you are burried in, and adjust your buying habits. With some smarts, you'll do fine.
