Future of this Hobby

How long do you think this hobby will be King?

The rise of better counterfeits are on their way. I highly doubt we will stop these counterfeits getting in here (our country), which only means it could ruin this hobby perminatly. Even to the point where the TPG's can't be known as trusted. Heck, I think they even have the ability to even clone the exact same holders, COA's, and envelopes from the US mint..which means we would have to be leary of buying from them (Proofs and mint sets from the secondary market) also.

Am I the only one who thinks this counterfeit thing can get WAY out of control to the point where the best can't tell the difference, and the effect would be to permanantly damage the hobby?


stainless

 

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Do you have any stories of counterfeits or photos. I hear about this, but don't see specific examples. I agree if the TPG's couldn't tell that would be a huge problem. Of course how would we know they were fakes, if this was the case. If a group of people we're caught running an organization making fake rare coins, that would be very bad for the market causing fear and distrust. Just what we need more of right now, right??

 

I worry about this also, but more so for new collectors starting out. I don't think we'll ever be able to stop the manufacture of counterfeits made outside of this country, but I wish our enforcement was more proactive finding and prosecuting those that knowingly and willingly buy to sell them that are located in this country. The trouble is this is miniscule when compared to drugs and large scale counterfeiters of currency. If it continues I think certified coins possibly will get too expensive for many collectors or wanabee collectors. Coin collecting is already a pricey hobby to me any way. I hate to think we all end up just buying the same things each year form the mint.

 

Here you go guys, the counterfeits are rampant. Read these 2 threads and learn as much as you can from the pictures. Also, the new Scott Travers book has a section on how to identify the fake slabs.....

this PCGS link has pics from a recent ebay fake slab auction AND the real coin with the same PCGS cert #:

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=694422&highlight_key=y&keyword1=china

actual ebay auction of fake:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=300281704077&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT&ih=020

 

I know a lot of people bad mouth the state quarter program and now the new programs the mint has launched or about to launch. I do think it does bring more people into the hobby without question. How many of these become collectors of "older coins" is anyone's guess. But if you look at the Peace Dollar now compared to say five years ago their populariy has certainly grown and somebody is buying them and prices have increased fairly well over those years. I tend to think they are fair judge of people in the market because they are still as one writer said a big beautiful coin that looks expensive, but isn't. They allow you to own a beautiful set of coins very unique without spending a fortune. I don't know if it is true or not, but on a recent HSN coin show they said coin collecting was the number one hobby in American now. I have no idea where they got their data from. I'm certainly not knocking it I do it myself, but collecting state quarters out of pocket change is not really a coin collector to me. Coins have a few things going in there favor I think more and more people are realizing Coins are money and let's face it, people like money. I think more and more people realize they are very artistic and loaded with history. A few things I certainly enjoy also are they don't take up a lot space, I can be active any time night or day that I want, and can meet others with similar interests such as here. Coin collecting is very popular right now and I think it will continue to be even after the economy turns around. In America we do have a big "herd" mentality to follow whether it be in stocks, real estate, precious metals, or coins. The hobby as a whole is pretty solid right now and will go up and down, but I think it has gotten too popular to ever contract to a large extent. Others that have doing this longer than me would certainly know more about that. Once you get into this it's not something you want to give up.

 

Basically, with one, comes the other. Ya wanna be king? Then everyone wants a piece of ya.

This apparent influx of conterfeiters might be good timing. Coin sales will be down for the forseeable future. It will give the "system" some time to adjust. If ebay's bottom line is hurt, ebay will do something about it. After all, who is buying this stuff?

I would disagree with the term "rampant" as is used in another post. The sky is not falling. It is being discussed in every coin forum I know of. I bet your coin dealer can give you an ear-full. Can you imagine if this type of thing had happened before the Internet?

I think Ruben uses a term which is somthing like "Fear creation". That's what dealers and the TPG's want from you. Fear! Buy from us - you can trust us. You can't trust anyone else. This counterfeiting thing is great for dealers bottom lines.

I bet you can go into any hobby and buy a fake or altered product - matchbook covers, shot glasses, campaign buttons, etc., etc.

I don't know what it's like now, but 5-10 years ago, it was difficult to get rid of an American $100 bill at most international airports because there were so many fake ones. In fact, most airport boutiques had signs saying they would not take any. Did the American monetary system crumble to the ground because of "all" the fake bills on the international market?

 

No, our bankers/mortgage brokers took care of that for us.

 

Excellent point. And those guys are from Cincinatti, Brooklyn, Peoria, Austin and San Fernando.

Anybody want a slightly used pitch fork?

 

I think the future of the hobby will be more impacted by the continued use of electronic payment versus "hard" money. People will become more disconnected to coins. As older collectors die off, there will be less younger ones to carry on the hobby.

 

i still think ia m the future of the hobby?

 

Peter,

I called PCGS on it today over on their board... I am dying to see if Don responds to it

"Why doesn't PCGS themselves just report these items to eBay under the VeRo program?"

eBay is famous for yanking items QUICKLY under VeRo and without any real judge or jury, it gets reported, it gets yanked.

 

I believe it works in favor of the hobby. Because of how people get paranoid with counterfeits, either they rely on dealers with good reputation or people with trust. This too will encourage more discussion and awareness of what's valuable, fake, etc and hence forums like cointalk exist for such purposes.

Hey, otherwise how else do you explain the number of people increasing in various coin forums?

 

Here's a rant I posted elsewhere, maybe it is pertinent to this conversation..

==========================

Why should dealers and auction companies contribute towards coins that are in slabs that they don't deserve? They certainly didn't seal them in there, the TPGs did. What has happened today is exactly what I said back in the late 80s when I left the hobby, that slabbing coins would make people lazy and those people would get burned and blame the slabbers. I said that as a 12 year old punk kid and one dealer laughed at me. Guess what, I was right.

"Oh it's an MS65, ok, so it's worth $X and since bid is $Y I can sell it to a dealer for $Y +/- X% and because my calculator says this and etc..." No. I don't think that we're ever going to have that easy and simple a time of it, and I, for one, am thankful of that. Building a coin collection or dealing in coins is not that simple and easy. Slabs and TPGs are nothing more than a tool and a guide. Take 10 specific coins in a specific grade, all slabbed by the same respected TPG and tell me that they are all identical in quality and of identical worth and that you don't care which specific one you would spend your own money on.

When I started collecting coins I used to look closely at ANY coin I bought! Now I go to coin shows and see people say "Gee, do you have an 1882-CC in MS65? The dealer says "Sure, here's an NGC one and here's a PCGS one, the NGC one is $450 and the PCGS one is $485" Not 10 seconds later the buyer hands $485 over and buys the PCGS one. Now you tell me, who on here who was around BEFORE your average coin bourse was slabville USA recalls people walking up to a dealer's table and just buying a coin within seconds? "Oh, look, you have the coin on my list in the grade I want, how convenient, here's my money, have a nice day!". Anybody remember seeing people like that at coin shows in 1984?

If you want to buy coins and build a collection without doing any homework or having any knowledge, fine, go and buy the mint issues as they come out directly from the mint. You know that the coins will be brand new, factory sealed and genuine 100% USDA approved American Coinage. Oh, wait, you like Standing Liberty Quarters? You like Morgan Dollars? Well then you're going to have to give yourself an education and educations are never free. You're going to screw up and buy bad coins, some dealer is going to stick you with a bad coin that you didn't look at properly, it will happen. And when it does happen, you have two options. You can say to yourself "I screwed up and wasted my money, maybe I better learn what the heck I am doing before I do that again!" or you can scream "Shenanigans" and cry that life is unfair, when the truth is, you only got burned because you were uneducated.

Sorry for the rant, no offense intended.

 

I will just keep collecting and keeping my eyes open, learning, helping...remain a skeptic...

I know its a hobby in which many people share, but in the end, its an individual endeavor and thats how I think of it. Its just something I have done, do, and will continue to do until I leave this world. What other collectors do...I dont care much...if they leave the hobby, more coins for me and less competition so I am always hoping less people find coin collecting attractive...

Oh, and concerning the post above...I do not buy coins lightly or quickly at shows, it takes me several trips and comparisons to find the one I want and unlike the 95% US coin dealers I see at each show, the world coin section, thank GOD, is not slab city...and I hope it stays that way.

BUT...I do NOT enjoy shopping for coins, finding deals, auctions, etc...I just dont find the hunt enjoyable, more frustrating and a waste of my time so if it were possibly to walk in and find the coin I am looking for in 2 seconds and be assured its exactly what I want...I would with pleasure. I love coins not hunting and shopping for coins.

BUT...this isnt how it is and I would rather hunt and nitpick and spend the time getting what I want then to play the slab game which IMO is one of the worst aspect of modern coin collecting....So I remain a hunter

 

the simple solution to guard against counterfeits is to collect coins not worthy of counterfeiting. common coins in high grades just aren't worth the effort. i will continue to collect and enjoy the hobby. i trust the people i buy from and am cautious with new sellers.

-Steve

 

No, you're not the only one. I've been starting to think the same thing. We really don't know how many places in China alone are cranking out good counterfeits. Or how many they can produce a year. But the fact that they are producing any is enough to bother me.

I mean, sure, discuss them and look at them here all the time. Some do have distinguishing factors that experienced collectors are able to spot, despite being made with silver or gold content to the proper weight and size.
Others, are getting pretty good. Yes, there are millions and millions of real Morgans floating around still. Your chances of getting a real one are pretty good. The fact of the matter is just that though. There's 'chances'. As time goes on, we can expect that the market will become more diluted with better counterfeits that veteran hobbyists can't spot. Then your chances of getting a counterfeit will increase.

Anybody that doesn't think it's bad should just go to ebay and type in replica 'x', (whatever coin you choose) and you'll probably find one. And if you buy it, they'll send you one without the copy or replica stamp on it. So yes, I'd say this will become a major problem.

As I've said in the past, there's a guy in China selling common date Barber dimes with no stamps on them. Eventually people are going to catch on that it makes sense to order 1000 of them at 0.10 a piece. Receive them, rough them up and sell them in a roll at over 1.00 a piece and take their chances. If it isn't being done already.

If I can't trust that a Barber dime, made with 90% silver is real, what's that do for higher end stuff? And I'm trying to learn all I can. What about the casual collector? They'll either trust everything or nothing and avoid the hobby.

 

I disagree. They counterfeit nearly everything now. Common date barber dimes. Old Washington quarters. Commemoratives. Basic Morgans. They're doing it with ease and they're good.

A 90% silver 1936-D Washington quarter. Keep in mind, if you buy one from this guy, it will come without the replica stamp on it.

http://cgi.ebay.com/Replica-1936-D-...5|66:2|65:12|39:1|240:1318|301:1|293:1|294:50

I rest my case.

 

Let us know how we can help.
Very best regards,
collect89

 

if a coin collector is duped by that, well, they deserve to be. you seriously rest your case with the proof being a very bad copy? there is zero incentive to create a flawless copy, the time spent making it so isn't worth the potential profit.

let me know when these are copied:

http://www.omnicoin.com/coins/892034.jpg

-Steve