This looks to be a disturbing trend, I would have a hard time giving MS-64 money for the last two coins. Way to many marks.
This is an old article but it does show a little why grading has changed. It's all about profits for the TPGs and has little to do with the actual grade of the coin. But we all knew that, didn't we? http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/PCGS-NGC-coins-grading-services.html
It would be helpful if he got his info straight, but he at least admits he doesn't know for sure. PCGS has always slabbed modern coins - since day one. NGC did not slab moderns until 2002 or 2003 if memory serves. One to talk I guess when I can't remember for sure either. But one thing he doesn't recognize in his article - the reason that NGC finally gave in and begam slabbing modern coins (defined by them as any coin minted post 1964) was because their customers demanded that they do so. They didn't want to do it - didn't do it at all for the first 18 years and steadfastly refused. But because of pressure from their customers they eventually gave in and decided to do what their customers demanded they do. It's just like the FS designation for Jefferson nickels. For 20 years NGC refused to slab any Jeff as FS unless it had 6 full steps. But again, because their customers demanded, begged even, that they change to slabbing those with only 5 steps - they eventually gave in. Now you tell me, what business is there that doesn't do that ? If they want to stay in business that is. But I suppose that some think that they should have held their ground, refused to respond to their customers wants and desires - and gone out of business. Just because they are in the business of grading coins - and that business is somehow different than any other business. So no, it is not the TPG's that are fault here. It's US ! Their customers, the people that pay them to perform a service. And until collectors wake up, pull their heads out of the sand and admit that THEY are the ones who are at fault. Nothing will change. The TPG's have repeatedly shown that they will will respond to the wants and desires of their customers. And that is where the problem lies - with the customers - US !
I'm gonna disagree with you GDJMSP, on the point about it being only in the last few years that TPGs have market graded coins. IMO, it is has been a gradual process over the years, with certain times of "softening", but stepwise in its march. It is most visible on the high-end by definition, and perhaps that's where it's focused in the past few years (I certainly would agree with NGC and how they give out top-pop grades), but as a wise man once told me, TPG's don't grade coins above MS 65 they rank them*. All that said, I was not actively collecting during the early years of the TPGs, so I don't have as much in-period experience as some. Respectfully...Mike * that was a very insightful comment, and I think everyone out there should give some thought to it.
All successful businesses have a level of predictable market driven behavior regardless of the marketing or the ideology. I've tried to drive this home in the CAC treads but people are actually blinded to the fact that these businesses exist in a real market and have to obey real economic laws if they are to succeed. In the end, Grading coins just isn't that special...and also succumbs to business logic, application and analysis.
Just for the sake of clarity - I'm reasonably sure that you understood my comments Mike, but your reply could be confusing to some. It's not that I was saying that it has only been the past few years that TPG's have been market grading coins. They have used market grading since day one. What I was saying is that, IMO, it has only been the past few years that TPG's have allowed the apsect of a coin's value to cause to them to grade coins higher today than they would have graded the very same coins in years past. ps - one of these days you gotta tell me who this "wise man" is
Perhaps your comments went right over my head.... I thought that was market grading? Or perhaps you're saying that you've noticed a more recent shift in how the TPGs view the market that was not present before? Because if so, II'd say it was always there but the market changed. For example, toned coins. Early in the TPG experiment, toning wasn't looked on fondly grade-wise. However, clearly that's changed over the years. But was it the TPG that changed, or the underlying market that the TPG is interpreting that's changed? I would argue the latter, but think you're trying to suggest the former. Am I misinterpreting things? Curiously yours...Mike
I agree with you about the toned coins 100%. Also agree that it is the market that changed regarding toned coins, the TPG's have merely reacted to this and rightly so. But my initial comment was in regard to the value aspect of market grading only. Point being - as the value of a coin in a given grade increases - so does the grade. Example - in 2004 let's say a given coin is graded as a 65 and sells for $400. IN 2008, that same coin now sells for $550, thus the grade increases to 66. And yes, it is the market grading system that is being used. However, there is more than one aspect of market grading that differentiates it from technical grading. Neither luster, eye appeal, quality of strike nor value are considered in technical grading. So what I am trying to point out is that the apparently recent changes in TPG grading standards are due to value only and that the other aspects of the TPG grading standards have not changed or loosened at all - IMO. In other words I am saying that only recently has the change in value had any significant impact on the assigned grades. In years past, a change in value was largely ignored and the coins were graded on the basis of marks, luster, eye appeal & quality of strike. That is no longer the case.
I think I understand you now (and thanks for explaining yourself), but I must respectfully disagree with your opinion on the topic. In my opinion, the TPGs are just interpreting the market's value of a particular coin when market grading -- the way they always have. Now this mechanism is quite different from gradeflation, which is a very different (and much more troubling to me) feature of the TPG game, and if I might be so bold as to suggest that gradeflation is actually the root cause of the grade increase you corretly note -- it has nothing to do with the underlying value of the coin, but rather is the result of the stepwise loosening of the TPGs standards over the years just taking a visible step in the wrong direction recently. Respectfully....Mike
Quite possibe that you are right Mike. However, as I noted in one of my earlier posts in this thread, there has been a recent and significant increase in values for some coins, Morgans in this case, and that increase in value just happens to coincide with the increase in grades. Coincidence ? Maybe, and if it is then you would be correct. But if it is not just coincidence then I am right. No way to know for sure except to wait and see what happens next. And whatever does happen next should determine the answer.