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Absolutely correct. The common flu vaccine mutates every year, several times. There are two major types, A and B and eight or nine strains across the two.

The vaccine is produced months in advance, based on the best guess as to which strain(s) will be most common during the upcoming season.

Some years the guess is pretty good and the immunization provides decent protection. Some years the guess is bad (a late emergent strain or just something that wasn't circulating in Australia when they produced the vaccine). Those years are a bad season.

There is some evidence that exposure to a strain provides a little immunity when that comes back around ... they trace families such as A/Hong Kong through the years.

Combine the guess with a major mutation to a strain not seen in many years and you get a brutal season... IIRC the last bad one about 3 years ago was a throwback to a strain not seen in over 30 years. Nobody younger than that had ever seen it.

If it's really, really bad, it's a pandemic.

But the year over year ebb and flow is basically "the flu" and we've become accustomed to just living with it.

 

There are millions of cases of the flu every year...just like there millions of cases of Cornavirus every year. That's because there are dozens of strains of each. How many cases are H1N1...because that would be relevant to COVID-19. There is some herd immunity there.

Likewise, the flu vaccine only targets a couple specific strains every year. We also know that Cornaviruses in general (like flu viruses) aren't well maintained in our antibody memory. Meaning, the immunity is not forever. But, once enough of the population has immunity the logarithmic spread stops and a balance is reached. This is not going away...but what we have right now isn't forever.

 

I have not seen ANY research that says SARS-CoV-2 is anything like H1N1 flu. It would be interesting to see a reputable report.

In fact, there has been some testing and exposure to SARS-CoV-1 (the virus that causes SARS) doesn't seem to have any relevance to -2. The reason that it was tagged as a novel coronavirus it that while it is clearly in the family of coronaviri, it doesn't seem close to any other. Novel and in new and novel. Certainly the way it attacks the body is very different from something like SARS that was purely a respiratory problem.

There is also no scientific proof that having it once renders you immune. There are some reports the other way. People who had and tested positive for Covid-19, got better, tested negative in the interim and then 28 days later came down with it again. Obviously not a lot of reports and nothing conclusive, but there was news coverage about the USS Teddy Roosevelt in the last week.

 

I wasn't comparing H1N1 to COVID-19 directly. My point to Doug's comment was that "millions of cases of flu" are caused by a family of viruses...not just one virus and that those viruses have different levels of virulence. That comparing that to a single virus isn't really a fair thing. If you want to compare it the flu...then compare it to a single flu. H1N1 came to mind as it was a fairly recent novel recombination of the virus that caused a pandemic a decade ago. It's still here...there just is some herd immunity in the population now so there is a balance.

As for your comment that there is "no scientific proof than having it once renders you immune" it is misleading at best. No virus causes absolute immunity once you have it...and some are worse than others. Influenza, cornaviruses, rhinoviruses, are all known to have fleeting immunity associated with them and it varies from person to person. But there is SOME immunity to it...and if having it once renders you 50% less likely of getting it again in the short term it will substantially slow the spread of the virus once enough of the population has had it. Yes, that immunity in the individual will likely lessen over time but since the virus will continue to circulate, enough people will have had it to create some herd resistance.

 

@CamaroDMD fair enough on the multiple strains. You are correct, any NEW strain of anything is a fresh start for the population.

From the CDC report on 2009: "The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection." (emphasis added)

That by any imagination is a long-lasting even partial immunity.


CDC has a page on the difference between "Drift" and "Shift": https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm - under "shift": "While influenza viruses change all the time due to antigenic drift, antigenic shift happens less frequently. Influenza pandemics occur very rarely; there have been four pandemics in the past 100 years."

And that's the point - something new comes roaring out of nowhere...

In 1918, it was spread across the USA by soldiers (sailors, marines, and coasties) returning from WWI over the relatively new-fangled transportation innovation of the day (trains).

The 1957-1958 pandemic was also spread by trains and some amount of long-distance automobile travel. Unlike 1918, there was some early parts of the Interstate Highway System in operation.

The 1968 pandemic was spread more widely by the early network of airline flights. e.g. https://www.pinterest.com/pin/50524827045458132/ (a 1968 American Airlines route map).

And of course, the 2009 flu and 2020 Covid-19 pandemic were spread wider and faster by the network of international air flights to every corner of the globe.

 

I totally agree with what you are saying. I didn't realize that older people were shown to have some immunity to H1N1 back then...I suppose that would explain why that particular pandemic hit my age demographic harder than normal but didn't hammer older people as bad as expected.

Immunity tends to be one of those things that "lay people" view like an on/off switch. Where you either are or you aren't. That's not remotely true. It varies greatly by the individual and my pathogen. My guess that not a lot if the population in that age had immunity to it but enough did to give some level of herd immunity. We also know that having a virus results in a much wider spectrum of antibody resistance than a vaccine normally does. If I remember right, a lot of vaccines result in increased IgE antibody levels but not nearly as much in the other antobody types.

One thing I keep wondering is this. I remember the 2009 flu pandemic. I was a graduate student at a teaching hospital and we were fitted for N95 masks because it was believed that it could result in the same kinds of shutdowns and "mass panic" we are seeing today. I know that COVID is more contagious (if I remember right, the 2009 H1N1 transmission rate was about 1:1.6 while this is closer to 1:2). But, it doesn't seem to me that this particular virus is any more dangerous than the H1N1 was yet the world has stopped. I don't remember day to day life being impacted that greatly in 2009. Heck, I felt like it effected me more than most because I was working/studying at a hospital.

I understand the medical side of it...and I don't want to get into a political debate. But the two pandemics feel about the same in actual human effect but the response has been greatly different.

 

I wish there was a scale measuring virus transmissability, like from 1-10 or something like that.

I mean, if this C-19 virus can exist/live on door knobs, hand rails, whatever....then how can YOU not get infected unless you wash your hands every hour and sanitize wipe every 20 minutes or whatever ?

Unless you hermetically seal yourself in your home.

 

Yeah, I had a blast at my 1st big show ever and seeing you and the other guys. Seems like alot more people would come to FUN 2021 before the virus hit.

Let's hope we stumble on a vaccine before then.

 

@CamaroDMD the key seems to be not just the basic reproduction number (R0) but also the mortality. COVID-19 seems to be easier to catch (higher R0) and also more lethal. These combine to say that -if- it follows classical models, more cases and more-more deaths.

 

Here's the thing that scares me, and I'm NOT an alarmist.

The Flu may kill, but it's usually in conjunction with other diseases, advanced old age, etc. You get the Flu -- Influenza is the full name -- and the symptons are pretty much the same whether you are 8 years old (miss a week of school)....16 years old (miss 2 days of school).....mid-20's or mid-30's (MAYBE miss 1 day of work, but OJ and Vitamin C and rest gets you back to normal in 2 days)....or in your 60's or 70's or even your 80's (as long as in decent health, back to normal in a few days).

This C-19 virus seems to have an unpredictable tail on the statistical Bell Curve diagram of illness effects. The speed with with it can kill you if you have diabetes or some other seemingly-at-random disease is alarming. Even if you DON'T have an at-risk factor or disease...just the way it can attack any individual is scary. Two identical twins with the same physical and health makeup...one can get the virus and never show symptoms, the other gets extremely sick. It's almost like a Viral Russian Roulette as to what happens to you (with the exception that the very young do seem to be 99.999% immune, must be because immune systems weaken as we age).

A friend of mine had it....female mid-40's, great health....took her almost 2 weeks to fight it off. And we all had the flu when we were younger (or more recent)....you fight it off, stay home and eat Pastina and watch TV ...you feel weak and tired, but nothing really terrible. My friend said she felt like she was at Death's Door for 2-3 days.

On a scale of 0-10, 0= normal health and 10= must go to hospital emergency room or ICU..... then the common cold is a 2 or 3....and the flu is a 4 or 5....then this thing for her was a 9. It wasn't just a 4 or 5 that lasted much much longer...the depth of the attack was much much stronger.

Maybe the herd immunity theory is correct. Maybe if this virus ever comes back again the lethality, longevity to recover, and depth of sickness will all be reduced. I just know that while most of us may not get it or if we do get infected never know about it, too many who DO get it (like my friend) are either taking weeks to fight it off (not days) and/or requiring hospitalization and/or dying.

 

That's what I tried to say above, just not as in an elegant matter as you.

 

Doesn't the fact that so few children and teens have the disease indicate that it's definitely immune related ?

I remember from basic biology classes that the immune system you get when you are born is what you have your entire life. It's like a full-tank of gas and it slowly dissipates as you age. It's strongest when we are young kids and teens, as I recall (maybe it strengthens from infancy).

Is that correct ?

 

It seems like it is really hard to know how deadly it is. Without mass testing in place and the fact that there are so many asymptomatic carriers we don't really know how many people have it...it wouldn't be shocking to see case loads 20x what are known. Suddenly, a disease that has a 6% mortality rate drops to 0.3% which is still higher than the seasonal flu but a lot more in line with the estimates from the 2009 pandemic.

 

Specific disease immunity is based on antibody production which requires an initial exposure to the pathogen. This is also how allergies happen...the immune system overreacts to something. But, it never happens the first time you are exposed to it.

Younger people on average are healthier overall than older people and overall health makes you more resilient to disease.

 

Intro:
Most directional thinking on the action of the covid virus is associated with the immune reaction of the patient. Every large animal has an immune system generally like all humans and involve the white cells which in a very early age a portion pass through the thymus and are "educated" as to "Your specific IDpassword". and these form a group called T-Cells. Others, B-Cells are chemical component generating cells that can produce protective cells. How good your immune system is , depends on the specific genes you received from your parents. Identical twins generally have the same coding and can have high success if a kidney or segment of liver has to be transplanted. Siblings have a better success ratio than non-siblings, but not identical. Bubble babies have a non-functioning system. Cancer ( genetically damaged self-cells that can reproduce without control ) in a human population is a "U" shaped curve ( high age 0-4) drops, flattens until 30-40, and then increases till death, all three ranges determined by the number and activity of your immune cells.

Humans genetically seemed ( to some) programmed to die about the 30-40 yo, but intellectual factors and actions have increased it to current averages.

Specific:
The action of covid seems mainly immunological. Since this is our assumed first human interaction, we can understand that systems opened to the environment would be highly reactive. The pulmonary system was first noticed, but as medical experience increase almost every symptom such as Diabetes, older age, damaged lungs, even the digestive and the nervous system showed dysfunctions which could lead to death. Yes, older individuals or immune defective are most susceptible, but smokers-vapors, diabetes, cancer medication, etc., of any age plays a part.

Future: Genetic drift ( small internal mutations) of the virus has already occurred, but the infectivity has not changed much. Thats good news.
Bad news : Genetic Shift ( large mutation change)would be if people are infected with both covid from people and an influenza virus from bird, pig, etc, and the 2 " party" in humans and exchange more major genetic factors, which the human then passes on to others is a possibility. If limited by fast government suppression by, it should be tempered. And obviously the fewer cases of both, the less chance such will occur. Once spread in a town-->state-> country>world we may have significant deaths. Vaccines that may be developed from now to then are not universal. We do not know where the "party" is scheduled or if it is, so predictions are just that, predictions. Stay healthy.

IMO, Jim

 

The CDC is now saying it's not easily transmissible from surfaces which makes sense. Detecting something on a surface and it being not only transmissible but an infectious load are two completely different things.

That's the same with the flu and every other disease too. There will always be a percentage of people that just have a hard time with it or lose their life to something that most people it's nothing too. Normal healthy people in their prime die of the flu every year as well, this seems to be more serious than the flu the question is just how much more.

The behaviors of it though are not unique, many people are just now learning about the dirty secrets of viruses and getting sick that otherwise would have went most of if not all of their life without ever knowing or thinking about.

I'm glad she pulled through

In general the flu itself doesn't kill you such as a bullet would, its the complications from it that do and that seems to generally be the case here as well. Whether it be an overactive immune response causing inflammation, pneumonia, clots from either inflammation or being hospitalized for a while.

No, especially since we dont actually know how many of them have it. The only way to know that is to test everyone. Unfortunately some states have decided to start acting in a way such as keeping lists of people who take the test and people are going to start pushing back against wide spread testing as medical tests including that one are supposed to remain private.

The problem with that is wide spread testing data could be VERY helpful in determining what to do and it's a shame that is now being abused by states.

The ones most likely to get tested currently are people with symptoms which makes sense, the problem is many people will have it and never develop any symptoms. The issue there is if we have potentially huge groups of cases that we never diagnose than we end up with inflated to grossly inflated death rates. If we tested everyone and it turned out 80% or so of the country has already had it the country is fully opened and normal tomorrow. The path forward is very different if you thing the death rate is <1%, 1-2%, or >3/4%. We think it probably sits in the 1-2.5% range with a chance it could be under 1, but we need massive widespread testing to really get the accurate number