As you gaze into the future

I would like to get a few opinions from some of the long time coin collectors or anyone with an opinion. We all know that the100 year anniversery of the Lincoln Cent is approaching fast. We also know what it did to prices. My set is only missing three keys 09 vdb S, 22 no D and Doubled 55. Anniverserys and milestones come and go. They have been here for other coins and will be here for even more. My question is based on what you have seen in the past is this large increase in cost a bubble or do you think that the prices will drop in the upcoming years. Thanks

 

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I'm no expert in this...but this is what I would not be surprised to see. First, the Lincoln Cent is among the most (if not the most) collected US coin. Therefore, it has a normal increase in value because of the interest in the series, probably more so than other US coins because of the demand. As the 100th anniversary approaches...and they mint the four reverse set in 2009 and possibly have a new design for 2010 I would expect many non-collectors to become short term collectors and get really excited for a while. That will drive prices up a bit faster than normal. After a couple of years (or less), many of those new collectors will return to being non-collectors and the market will return to normal. Will there be a drop in there? Maybe, but I personally don't see a huge jump coming as a result of the 2009 anniversary and therefore I'd doubt a huge drop will follow.

That's just my thoughts...but what do I know.

 

no more a bubble than the prices that have exploded since the States quarters program began.
However, that said, the prices for the 1909 P and 1909 VDB are currently nuts!

 

To be honest, I hate this coin and wish they still used the flying eagle, BUT, that being said, the demand for most of the series is a drop in the bucket compared to the mintage of most dates. That's why there so collected. I have Jars full of them all over the house. One time I went into a restaurant on 58th street and 8th avenue and someone asked for some pennies, and the guy pulled out two fire buckets of them and told him they can take a handful, no charge.

It's only the keys with lower mintages that are going to face a bubble, IMO.


For example, even in the first year they minted 100,000,000 Lincoln cents, and they went up from there. In 1919 they minted almost half a billion Lincolns. The 1922 rare "plain" variety? over 7 million of them, and that was a mistake coin, probably one for every serious coin collector in the US. By 1942 the mint produced almost 9,00,000,000 Lincolns. There was almost 2.5 x10-9 (2 and a half billion - more than one for everyone in China) steel cents made during the war. The "scarces" 1944 S over 280,000,000 alone.


And that's just the Wheates. There are over 4,000,000,000 1969 -D's. That might have been the world population in 1969. 1972, 7.2 billion between Philadelphia and Denver. 1980 over 12 billion. in 1982 over ten x 10-9 from Phili alone. And today it seems to be slowing down because....well probalby because of plastic and because they're worthless.

There can be all the demand in the world, but only a few keys will feel upward pressure.

Ruben

 

Washington quarters went up with the state program, look at them now (keys included)

 

Do you have many of the memorial varieties?

I think there's a lot of bubble in this but it's not just going to pop. The interest will die down a little after 2009 but soon enough the denomination has to be scrapped. This will bring more interest to the series in the short term.

A lot of the growth in the future will be in the underappreciated coins. You might be surprised what a nice '84-D with good surfaces will command in a few years. A '68 without spots and some of the PL's will gain a lot more interest.

 

1984 would be my third jar in and around

Ruben

 

This is incorrect. There were 7 million 1922-d cents(this includes the 22-d, the 3 varieties of the weak d, and the plain). I don't think anyone knows the population of The 1922 plain, but it is a VERY far cry from 7 million.

However, I do agree with the rest of your logic mrbrklyn. No matter how much demand there is, a coin that was minted in the billions isn't going to ever have much value unless something drastic happens to the surviving issues of that coin.

 

You ***are*** right. I got that stat for coinfacts and misread the line, which is easy to see why if you look at their chart.

http://www.coinfacts.com/small_cents/cents_lincoln_wheat_reverse.html

1922 "Plain"

7,160,000

0

This rare variety was caused when the mintmark became filled with crud on a worn die. The "Strong" reverse variety is the most desirable and valuable.
-----------------

Why were there no cents minted in Philadelphia that year?

 

Rare Ikes?

BTW - what do you think of this coin?

http://www.cheapslabs.com/index.php?action=item&id=29005&prevaction=category&previd=3236&prevstart=0

 

(((1922 "Plain"
7,160,000)))

I think it was a combination of that plus a very well filed down die.
By the way, that is my 22 plain on my avatar.
jeankay

 

My 'past' in collecting doesn't go back but a couple of years.
What I could buy then is a great deal more costly now.
Coin values tend to increase as the time for the 09 Lincolns arrives.
Even though the new cents could be very nice, I still think people like us
die-hard collectors still prefer our beautiful wheat cents, and pre-zincolns.
jeankay

 

If you look at the column headings, the "0" is the number of proofs minted. In this case none. The mintage of 7 million + refers to the 1922-D coin. The number of 1922 "plain" is unknown, as far as I know. Can't be many.

 

The lincoln craze is fascinating. Hundreds of coin collectors investing in coins to make money - always a bad idea.

Hmmm. Four new lincolns will come out next year and then people like the ones going to the opening of the movie "W" tonight will somehow be enticed to spend hundreds of dollars on a set of lincolns? Or perhaps dozens of dollars on a F12 lincoln from the teens?

If you presented that as a business plan to any sane group of individuals, you would probably leave with an escort.

The prices are up there because your fellow coin collectors have rolls and rolls of the goofy things.

So the next time your friend Joe The Coin Collector stands up to greet you, if something looks funny, it's not because he's happy to see you.....

 

Interesting mintage you quote, but I think not.

 

I agree, that would be pretty exciting if the Mint resurrected some of the old classic designs.

 

I don't think there will be a drop, an increase is more likely to happen. I would say with the new design coming out, the new cent in 2009 it will draw more younger people into the hobby just like the Satehood quarter seriers did. When they get hooked on the hobby, some get interested in other coins ,if it's in there blood like all of us here on Coin talk. So if there is a demand for certain series then there will be a continuious increase. Jazzcoins Joe :whistle::whistle:

 

Nice coin. It looks like it's in the top 3%ile or so. Hard to be sure from a picture.

 

The '22-"P" (die 2) was actually caused by polishing of the die. I believe this applies to all of the varieties of this coin.

At least some of the polishing was done to remove clash marks and this may be why the best examples have a strong reverse; the reverse die had to be swapped out due to damage.