What are the "Hobby Killers"?

OK, I was falsely accused of never saying anything negative.

So here goes.

If all current trends continue the only valuable coins in the world will be Chinese coins made after 1948. The aluminum coins of the 1950's and '60's will be worth more than all the old classic US coins put together.

Of course no trend can last forever but we must get a handle on this counterfeit situation regardless of any political ramifications or feelings.

Of course I've got some really nice Chinese aluminum stashed away in safety deposit boxes so you guys should all suit yourselves.

Being clad in aluminum is better than being stark nekkid.

 

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I have never gotten interested in visiting coin shops or shows. So much of my collection was found in change that I never needed or wanted a relationship with a coin shop.

 

I collected coins and stamps since 1948. I have virtually everyone of each US since 1900 and most of the earlier stamps. I quit getting new stamps when the wallpaper started to roll out from the USPS. And quit new coins a few years ago. They are putting out 30 new quarters each year, and, probably that many new dollars. Not for me.

 

I think there is something to be said for meeting others at shows like FUN after conversing on forums like this for months or years.

I know I enjoyed meeting some of the long-time CT'ers earlier this month at FUN.

 

You really think that ? You have the Chinese mass-producing coins and even bullion which I don't think was the case in the 1960's.

I think the volume has ramped up and the articles that we read about imply much larger operations than some guy altering mint marks in his basement.

Even bullion coins aren't safe !

 

The folks at FUN and in the professional coin magazines and blogs seem to all be in agreement that it is worse than today.

I wasn't collecting or around in the 1960's and 1950's.

TypeCoin did a great presentation on counterfeiting at FUN...maybe he can chime in if he came across volume estimates for fraud then and now.

 

With my experience with ancient Chinese coins, I have bought fakes both intentionally and not, and I have learned from each one. I stick with the ancient stuff because that is the easiest for me to authenticate, though I have coins in my collection that even the foremost experts disagree on. But my passion for the area has been unfazed, though the ever-rising costs might make me waver a bit.

For the post-618 AD cash coins, however, I generally avoid anything that is valued over $50. They are much harder to authenticate than the ancient stuff, and the fakes have gotten so good and prevalent that it is hard for me to learn how to discern between real and fake. (I need to handle hundreds of genuine coins to get a feel for them. If my sampling is tainted, then it is a moot exercise.) Since I would have much difficulty authenticating them, I avoid them altogether. There are literally thousands of different cheap types I could focus on with little worries about fakes (the fakes of these coins are far easier to spot).

Maybe I will eventually get a mentor who can show me hundreds/thousands of genuine rare cash so I can learn, but I do not see that happening anytime soon.

 

I've seen it estimated, but I'm not vouching for it, that about half of the specie circulating in colonial and early U.S. commerce was counterfeit. This would have been what is commonly called "contemporary counterfeits" intended to be passed as utilitarian money much like the current $100 bill.

Numismatic counterfeits are a different animal. There was really very little coin collecting except among the richest and most educated classes until the mid-nineteenth century. Prior to that time, those rich and elite people collecting coins were an extremely small minority of the population and thus the target audience for numismatic counterfeiters would have been small and thus the number of numismatic counterfeits would have been small. Thus there was probably very little numismatic counterfeiting going on up to that point compared to the amount of numismatic counterfeiting going on today where the worldwide middle class population as well as the elites are involved, thus making a huge target audience.

To my thinking, the current degree of numismatic counterfeiting is unprecedented and every effort made to combat it is to be applauded and supported.

 

As far as counterfeiting coins to fool collectors, it is by far worse now than it has ever been.

In terms of counterfeiting to fool people in general commerce, it was worse 1750-2200 years ago than in probably any other time period.

 

specie or paper currency? I know there was a HUGE paper money counterfeiting problem, not as much with coins. I am not including evasion coppers because they were made to add to the money supply, not defraud people in commerce.

 

My oldest forgery below from AD 197 - 200. An attempt to silver plate.

 

You think they will ever have "their day"? What would it take?

 

You're looking at this in terms of how much money collectors are willing to spend on them.

In absolute numbers states quarter collectors dwarf Lincoln and Morgan collectors put together.

Who knows what these new younger collectors will want when they have more money to spend. I'm guessing their choices will on average be coins that are less old than current collectors.

 

Good example of the if it's not done my way it isn't right I referenced earlier in this thread. The simple fact they have a State Quarter collection makes them real collectors and no you don't have to have interest in anything else to be a "real collector" whatever that nonsense is supposed to be